Icelandic parliamentary election 2016

[reciprocity]

I don't know if this is jumping the gun too early but it seems like the PM has asked the President to hold a snap election.

I can't post the link but the BBC has a story about it.

[mvd10]

Does anybody know why the pirate party currently is leading the polls in Iceland by huge margins?

[lilTommy]

Does anybody know why the pirate party currently is leading the polls in Iceland by huge margins?

The Pirate Party has been leading in the polls since April of last year!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_parliamentary_election,_2017

Pirate Party - 36.1%
Independence Party - 23.2%
Progressive Party - 12%
Left-Green Movement - 11%
Social Democrats - 9.5%
Bright Future - 3.2%m

[reciprocity]

Looks like the PM has resigned.

Does anybody know why the pirate party currently is leading the polls in Iceland by huge margins?

According to Electograph, they are polling at around 36% with Independence polling at 23% which is huge. It will be interesting to see if it will hold.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Pirate leader is very charismatic, and all the other parties suck (even though the Pirates have a big infighting/entryist problem which could burst their bubble). Sadly our resident Iceland expert is b& right now.

[Famous Mortimer]

Does anybody know why the pirate party currently is leading the polls in Iceland by huge margins?

Because the conservatives, social democrats, and even the traditionally third place liberals (currently in office) all had a shot, and they blew it.

I am a little bit confused though as to why the lard left (Green-Left Movement) never got a shot though *shrug*

[Ebsy]

politicus says that an election is unlikely, but I guess that depends on whether parliament is dissolved.

[Cranberry]

Does anybody know why the pirate party currently is leading the polls in Iceland by huge margins?

Because the conservatives, social democrats, and even the traditionally third place liberals (currently in office) all had a shot, and they blew it.

I am a little bit confused though as to why the lard left (Green-Left Movement) never got a shot though *shrug*

Red-Green partcipated in the 2009-2013 Social Democrativ Movement-led government, so they have had the same "shot" as the Progressive Party (which I wouldn't necessarily describe as liberal, rather some sort of northern agrarian populist of the like of the Swedish/Norse/Finnish Centre Party.

Let me just say though, that in the event of a snap election, and sucessively a (probable) Pirate Party win, if that truly happens, I will have to love Iceland even more than I do right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd love to see what would come out of Pirates polling ahead. I doubt it would be any good, but it would be a unique situation in European politics.

but I guess that depends on whether parliament is dissolved.

In the same way your birthday depends on the day you were born, yeah. Great insight!

[JerryArkansas]

I'd love to see what would come out of Pirates polling ahead. I doubt it would be any good, but it would be a unique situation in European politics.

but I guess that depends on whether parliament is dissolved.

In the same way your birthday depends on the day you were born, yeah. Great insight!

Tony stop being a dick to others.  Does nothing for everyone.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Red Greens are a classic example of Greens split into watermelons and mangoes, and there is a lot of friction within the party over the participation in the last government. The leader is well-likrd by a majority (I think) of Icelanders, but the party has less appeal than her.

Unfortunately the Icelandic centre left is obsessed with joining the EU (especially the Blairite wing of SDA) which ... doesn't really help them.

[Crumpets]

I would be so happy to see a pirate party actually get to govern a country, if only as part of a sociological experiment. That being said, Bright Future would probably have my vote if I lived there, unless it really looks like they're going to do terribly, in which case I'd probably go SD.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd love to see what would come out of Pirates polling ahead. I doubt it would be any good, but it would be a unique situation in European politics.

but I guess that depends on whether parliament is dissolved.

In the same way your birthday depends on the day you were born, yeah. Great insight!

Tony stop being a dick to others.  Does nothing for everyone.

Considering "Ebsy" is one of the biggest asshole on this forum, I don't see why I shouldn't point out when he says something so obviously dumb.

[Zanas]

I'd love to see what would come out of Pirates polling ahead. I doubt it would be any good, but it would be a unique situation in European politics.

but I guess that depends on whether parliament is dissolved.

In the same way your birthday depends on the day you were born, yeah. Great insight!

Tony stop being a dick to others.  Does nothing for everyone.

Considering "Ebsy" is one of the biggest asshole on this forum, I don't see why I shouldn't point out when he says something so obviously dumb.

Don't bring US elections feuds into this board, please. We're peaceful around here.

[Aboa]

Sadly or fortunately Icelandic Pirate Party resembles parties like PODEMOS bit more than their embarrassingly unprofessional Nordic sister parties.

[BundouYMB]

Þjóðarpúls Gallup has a new poll out this morning:

Pirate Party -- 32.4% (down 3.7% since their poll last week, up 27.3% since the 2013 election)
Independence Party -- 21.9% (down 1% since their poll last week, down 4.8% since the 2013 election)
Left-Green Movement -- 16.7% (up 5.7% since their poll last week, up 5.8% since the 2013 election)
Progress Party -- 10.8% (down 1.2% since their poll last week, down 13.6% since the 2013 election)
Social Democratic Alliance -- 7.6% (down 1.9% since their poll last week, down 5.3% since the 2013 election)
Bright Future -- 5.6% (up 1.4% since their poll last week, down 2.7% since the 2013 election)
Others -- 5.0%

Link: http://ruv.is/frett/fylgid-snareykst-hja-vg-en-dalar-hja-pirotum

I'm guessing SDA politicians were also implicated in the Panama Papers?

[Zuza]

Progress Party -- 10.8% (down 1.2% since their poll last week, down 13.6% since the 2013 election)

1.2 % is surprisingly little, 2 other polls conducted after the Panama Papers indicate a more significant decline.

[Vosem]

Weren't the Progressives already down to their absolute core of support even pre-Panama Papers?

[reciprocity]

I'm guessing SDA politicians were also implicated in the Panama Papers?

I am sure that I read that an SDA politician had to resign in 2013 due to tax issues.

[BundouYMB]

FTR, btw, the Icelandic Gallup is generally considered to be the "gold standard" of polling in the country. Two other firms, MMR and Fréttablaðið also poll regularly. I don't know much about either of them, but MMR seems to have performed fine in the 2013 election while Fréttablaðið missed the result by a sizeable margin, incl. having Progress in the lead.

Weren't the Progressives already down to their absolute core of support even pre-Panama Papers?

Yes, pretty much. The funny thing is it didn't take much for it to happen. There's been a few gaffes but AFAIK no big scandals before the Panama Papers. They've basically been criticized for pandering too much to their rural voters and in no time at all their urban voters abandoned them for Independence or the opposition.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is it the Independence or Progressive party that went full libertarian in the last election? And have they veered back to the center since?

[BundouYMB]

Oh, wow. I just found something really interesting. Party leader approval ratings from the latest MMR poll.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir (Left-Greens) 59% approve, 21% disapprove
Óttarr Proppé (Bright Future) 42% approve, 27% disapprove
Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson (Pirate Party) 40% approve, 30% disapprove
Bjarni Benediktsson (Independence) 22% approve, 61% disapprove
Árni Páll Árnason (Social Democratic) 15% approve, 51% disapprove
Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson (Progressive) 10% approve, 81% disapprove (!!!!!!!!!!)

Interestingly, they also polled SDA vice-president and Reykjavik mayor Dagur Bergþóruson Eggertsson. He was not only MUCH better liked (29% approve, 44% disapprove) but also better known than the actual leader!

By the way, Progress seems to have changed leaders and now Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson will lead them into the election. This can't possibly help them at this point, can it?

Link: http://mmr.is/frettir/birtar-nieurstoeeur/530-10-prosent-bera-mikid-traust-til-sigmundar-davids

[Crumpets]

Oh, wow. I just found something really interesting. Party leader approval ratings from the latest MMR poll.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir (Left-Greens) 59% approve, 21% disapprove
Óttarr Proppé (Bright Future) 42% approve, 27% disapprove
Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson (Pirate Party) 40% approve, 30% disapprove
Bjarni Benediktsson (Independence) 22% approve, 61% disapprove
Árni Páll Árnason (Social Democratic) 15% approve, 51% disapprove
Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson (Progressive) 10% approve, 81% disapprove (!!!!!!!!!!)

Interestingly, they also polled SDA vice-president and Reykjavik mayor Dagur Bergþóruson Eggertsson. He was not only MUCH better liked (29% approve, 44% disapprove) but also better known than the actual leader!

By the way, Progress seems to have changed leaders and now Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson will lead them into the election. This can't possibly help them at this point, can it?

Link: http://mmr.is/frettir/birtar-nieurstoeeur/530-10-prosent-bera-mikid-traust-til-sigmundar-davids

This is shaping up to be one of the greatest elections in recent memory - probably because I don't know that much about their actual policies.

[BundouYMB]

New Þjóðarpúls Gallup:


Pirate Party -- 29.3% (-3.1%)
Independence Party -- 26.7% (+4.8%)
Left-Green Movement -- 19.8% (+3.1%)
Progress Party -- 6.9% (-3.9%)
Social Democratic Alliance -- 9.0% (+1.4%)
Bright Future -- 5.0% (-0.6%)
Others -- 3.3% (-1.7%)

Changes compared to their poll last week.

Link: http://ruv.is/frett/sjalfstaedisflokkurinn-storeykur-fylgi-sitt

[lilTommy]

New Þjóðarpúls Gallup:


Pirate Party -- 29.3% (-3.1%)
Independence Party -- 26.7% (+4.8%)
Left-Green Movement -- 19.8% (+3.1%)
Progress Party -- 6.9% (-3.9%)
Social Democratic Alliance -- 9.0% (+1.4%)
Bright Future -- 5.0% (-0.6%)
Others -- 3.3% (-1.7%)


Changes compared to their poll last week.

Link: http://ruv.is/frett/sjalfstaedisflokkurinn-storeykur-fylgi-sitt

Looks like Pirates losing to Left-Green and Progress losing to Independence?