Washington state megathread

[KingSweden]

The SLOG (I broke my personal prohibition on visiting the Stranger to get their take on this event) interpreted McGinn's new slogan of "Keep Seattle" to be a NIMBY canard. I dunno about that, since McGinn said that Seattle "can't be the next SF," and he wasn't exactly a NIMBY pawn last time. It was just odd seeing the Stranger take a stance other than frothing anti-developer, yuppie-despising outrage

[KingSweden]

Stranger endorsed McGinn against Murray last time.

Worth nothing that McGinn would probably be a lot friendlier to the Sawant faction of the council than Murray is.

Weren't they pretty much responsible for his 2009 upset win over Nickels? If I recall their exposure and endorsements of him were what pushed him into power.

As for your second point... yeah, he's not perfect. I don't live in Seattle so I'm more of an observer than anything. McGinn lines up more with me on two issues I'm passionate about (Sodo arena & urbanism) and I get the sense Murray's sheen has seriously worn off since his banner 2014 year

[KingSweden]

Fremont Brewing Owner Sara Nelson Joins Race for City Council: https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council[/url

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Pass.

Why is she wasting her time? Does she not know what city she's running in? She'd have a hard time winning a Spokane CC race with that platform

I assume she's targeting the open AL seat rather than trying to take down Gonzalez?

[KingSweden]

That being said, if she gets a kook like John Grant in the runoff she has a good shot. Mosquera would probably beat her

[KingSweden]

That being said, if she gets a kook like John Grant in the runoff she has a good shot. Mosquera would probably beat her

I'm actually starting to think it might be Grant's race to lose, honestly.

Ugh

[KingSweden]

Eastern Washintonians, how much of this Stranger article on "turning Eastern Washington blue" - with Spokane council member Ben Stuckart - is sensationalism?

http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue

I'll believe it when I see it. Stuckart could waltz into the Mayor's office in '19, he practically already runs the city (Spokane's council has a 6-1 liberal majority - on the eve of the '13 muni elections, it was 4-3 conservative). Cathy is no slouch.

[KingSweden]

Eastern Washintoners, how much of this Stranger article on "turning Eastern Washington blue" - with Spokane council member Ben Stuckart - is sensationalism?

http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue

Shades of Marcus Ricelli 2026 in here
(era of a new majority reference)

Hehehe I see what you did there.

Ricelli would be a better candidate, IMO. I've met his dad a few times. Nice family.

[KingSweden]

Eh, Trump isn't that unpopular out here, so CMR being so closely tied to him won't matter that much unless he really tanks in the polls. Plus she's still very popular personally. If anyone's gonna knock her off, I doubt it would be someone so closely tied to Spokane.

This. Stuckart is polarizing enough in Spokane.

He'd be better than Joe Pakootas, but I'm very skeptical he can pull it off. CMR has some of the best constituent outreach in the nation and she's personally popular.

Plus local government is littered with her protégés. As nice of a man as he is (and he's a truly delightful man) George Nethercutt never built her kind of infrastructure there

[KingSweden]

Eastern Washintoners, how much of this Stranger article on "turning Eastern Washington blue" - with Spokane council member Ben Stuckart - is sensationalism?

http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue

Shades of Marcus Ricelli 2026 in here
(era of a new majority reference)

Hehehe I see what you did there.

Ricelli would be a better candidate, IMO. I've met his dad a few times. Nice family.

What is stopping him from running anyway?

He's a rising star in the House and would be giving up a safe seat.

Edit: wouldn't be surprised to see him run for Mayor of Spokane in '19, though, especially now that Stuckart is out and there's no clear frontrunner

[KingSweden]

Reposting this here:

WA-05: Washington State University-Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown is resigning from her post, and says she's weighing a bid against Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Brown was previously a state legislator for 20 years, serving as Senate Majority Leader from '05 to '13.

*whistles*

Brown would be a big get. Her tenure as Majority Leader could hurt her but she'd be a vastly better candidate than Stuckart (who frankly should run for Mayor). Lisa Brown would not lack for fundraising and institutional support. This is the biggest name Dems could get for this seat outside of mayyybe Andy Billig

[KingSweden]

Murray out.

WHOA!

Queue some heavyweights getting in. Hasegawa and McGinn should frighten nobody. Walkinshaw could do well, as could Petersen. Jessyn Farrell could be interesting too

[KingSweden]

Should add Hasegawa is utterly hostile to Sound Transit despite his left wing credentials - this is not a man anyone should trust with urbanist issues in Seattle

[KingSweden]

I live in Kirkland, so I don't have a vote, but Seattle leads the charge around here and what happens there matters to urban issues and Transit throughout the region. That's why I like McGinn even though he's an abrasive weirdo.

If I had to rank...

1. Hypothetical Walkinshaw
2. McGinn
3. Hasegawa

[KingSweden]

1. Walkinshaw (now's his time)
2. Cary Moon
3. McGinn
4. Oliver
5. Hasegawa

What's Cary Moon's niche? Haven't heard anything about him/her.

[KingSweden]

She's an urban planner/landscape architect:

http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/04/19/25084739/cary-moon-is-running-for-mayor-of-seattle-an-interview-with-the-brand-newest-murray-challenger

Thank you for sharing. Points to the Stranger's interviewer (I've been clear on here that I'm not a fan) asking tough questions and her giving straight answers. I think she gets the issues better than most (I have about zero confidence in Oliver or Hasegawa on urban issues)

[KingSweden]

Per DKE - former US Attorney and AG shortlister Jenny Durkan sounds close to getting in for Mayor. She would probably clear the field on the establishment and LGBT sides (there's plenty of overlap there) and would probably become the instant front runner. I imagine Harrell and Walkinshaw both defer to her

[KingSweden]

Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

[KingSweden]

Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.

Lorena wouldn't be bad. I'm still a little peeves over her arena vote and subsequent "sports fans hate women!" victory lap on Samantha Bee but she's the best of the ladies on the council. The risk is somebody worse getting her seat this fall. Just happy Port shill Bagshaw isn't running

O'Brien has gotten better. He and McGinn def overlap a bit, though O'Brien would be superior. He gets the balance between equity and urbanism better than most of the Sawant camp

[KingSweden]

Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.

Lorena wouldn't be bad. I'm still a little peeves over her arena vote and subsequent "sports fans hate women!" victory lap on Samantha Bee but she's the best of the ladies on the council. The risk is somebody worse getting her seat this fall. Just happy Port shill Bagshaw isn't running

O'Brien has gotten better. He and McGinn def overlap a bit, though O'Brien would be superior. He gets the balance between equity and urbanism better than most of the Sawant camp

And Jenny Durkan is running for mayor: http://crosscut.com/2017/05/former-u-s-attorney-jenny-durkan-is-running-for-mayor/

I don't think Harrell will run. He knows he can't win AND he is really not a strong candidate. He barely won his last election against a nobody candidate (who to her credit, turned out to be pretty good).

Lorena likely won't get in, but she'd be a decent candidate. O'Brien definitely isn't going to jump in with his buddy - McGinn - running.

Durkan is officially my horse in this race I can't vote in (to nobody's surprise)

Lorena has a bright future. She's young, her time will come. Durkan getting in probably precludes a Walkinshaw run, which is too bad. I was impressed by him. Maybe he should take on Grant for the other at large seat?

[KingSweden]

Just realized there's a special in 2017 in the 31st LD. Is there any chance of Democrats flipping this seat? Do they even have a candidate yet?

[KingSweden]

1) Still Cary Moon, who's an actual urbanist.
2) Durkan, she could rise/fall depending on her housing/transit views
3) McGinn, what does Keep Seattle even mean??? That kind of worries me.
4) Oliver, I like her as a candidate and her unequivocal BLM agenda, I just wish she could hop aboard the housing train
5) Hasegawa, no, just no.

Candidates not in:

Harrell: light weight, no.
Gonzalez: she's building her name and chops, I agree with KS, she's got a bright future. Would love to see her run in 4 or 8 years.
Walkinshaw: Dream candidate. He's FBBPW (Flawless Beautiful Brady Pinero Walkinshaw)
Farrell: who now? That's what most people probably think. I imagine she'd do a fine job.
Pederson: yes, but I don't think he has any desire to leave Olympia
Kim: Negative chance. What does a LM even do? Help craft policy?

We need to make Flawless Beautiful Brady a thing

Farrell is popular with STB (Seattle Transit Blog). Unlike Hasegawa, her entire district is in town. She'd be good if Flawless Beautiful Brady doesn't get in

Oliver's housing platform makes her an utter nonstarter and unserious candidate IMO. Besides her turf is going to be seriously eaten into by McSchwinn and Bobby-H

[KingSweden]

The Durkin article also mentions the possibility of Rep. Jessyn Farrell getting in. Farrell was a major supporter of Walkinshaw's congressional run.

Currently my preferences (Like KS I live nowhere near Seattle):

1) McGinn
2) Oliver
3) Durkin

Hasegawa would be #1 if not for his Sound Transit stance. Durkin seems competent but her attorney background might make her a bit too law-and-ordery for my tastes.

Just realized there's a special in 2017 in the 31st LD. Is there any chance of Democrats flipping this seat? Do they even have a candidate yet?

I doubt it. 31st is rough territory. Half of Auburn, Enumclaw, Bonney Lake, and all the rural area in between. It also slid from a narrow Obama '12 seat to one Trump carried, even as he was getting destroyed in King County.

Side note: I hate the way this district is drawn, there's no reason to have two State Senators from Auburn.

The map isn't even a gerrymander, it's just a sh*t map

[KingSweden]

The same article that mentioned Farrell also mentioned Sen. David Frockt, who I think would excite no one and have zero constituency.

The map isn't even a gerrymander, it's just a sh*t map

The one good thing that could come about if Hasegawa was elected Mayor is that the commission might have less of an impetus for drawing the ugly forced majority-minority 11th. Dismantling that would make for a much cleaner looking King county, at least.

Who?

Anyways, they should just refuse to give the commission the home addresses of incumbents. King Co's map is hideous but there's some stinkers in EWA and I'm still not sure what they were thinking with that horseshoe thing down in Clark

[KingSweden]

The same article that mentioned Farrell also mentioned Sen. David Frockt, who I think would excite no one and have zero constituency.

The map isn't even a gerrymander, it's just a sh*t map

The one good thing that could come about if Hasegawa was elected Mayor is that the commission might have less of an impetus for drawing the ugly forced majority-minority 11th. Dismantling that would make for a much cleaner looking King county, at least.

Who?

Anyways, they should just refuse to give the commission the home addresses of incumbents. King Co's map is hideous but there's some stinkers in EWA and I'm still not sure what they were thinking with that horseshoe thing down in Clark

Except the legislature chooses who is on the commission so they pick people who will fight for their interests.

While we're listing complaints, the 9th, 2nd, and 1st are all horror shows.

Heh I live in the 1st now. Real odd combo of towns it stitched together. I'm not convinced anybody actually lives in the 2nd - couldn't tell you how on earth to get anywhere that's in it

[KingSweden]

Well, the clown car grows: Jessyn Farrell is officially in: http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-state-rep-jessyn-farrell-joins-crowded-race-for-seattle-mayor/

I like her a lot, but as I said earlier, she's remarkably unknown. Perhaps STB and Seattle Subway have enough influence to get her name out, which could in turn get The Urbanist on her side, idk.

She's more on the transportation side than the development side of urbanism from what I can tell. These obviously go hand in hand, but that's her difference from Moon. Maybe Flawless Beautiful Brady returns the favor she paid him last year?

Just realized much of her district is outside of Seattle. Stretches into Lake Forest Park and Kenmore (!). We were talking about bad districts yesterday - there is zero reason for this district to be drawn this way either