Democratic Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[Adam Griffin]

Maryland Dem electorate:
43% white
46% black
6% Latino/Hispanic
2% Asian

CT Dem electorate:
76% white
14% black
7% Latino/Hispanic
1% Asian

PA Dem electorate:
White 71%
Black 17%
Latino/Hispanic 9%
Asian 1%

For the record, the 2012 Democratic electorate in the general election was:

MD: 46% White, 39% Black, 9% Latino, 6% Other
CT: 60% White, 19% Black, 11% Latino, 10% Other
PA: 70% White, 25% Black, 5% Other

Going to be a blackbath in MD; much blacker than even the 2012 presidential. CT & PA are substantially whiter and/or less black than the general, though.

[Adam Griffin]

For the record, the 2012 Democratic electorate in the general election was:

MD: 46% White, 39% Black, 9% Latino, 6% Other
CT: 60% White, 19% Black, 11% Latino, 10% Other
PA: 70% White, 25% Black, 5% Other

Going to be a blackbath in MD; much blacker than even the 2012 presidential. CT & PA are substantially whiter and/or less black than the general, though.

Wouldn't you expect a Democratic primary to be blacker than a general election, since blacks go overwhelmingly for the Dems?

Not necessarily. There are plenty of states where the primary has been less black than the general, especially from 2008 onward; anecdotally, it seems more to be the rule than the exception. It's quite common in the South, though not universal.

[Adam Griffin]

For the record, the 2012 Democratic electorate in the general election was:

MD: 46% White, 39% Black, 9% Latino, 6% Other
CT: 60% White, 19% Black, 11% Latino, 10% Other
PA: 70% White, 25% Black, 5% Other

Going to be a blackbath in MD; much blacker than even the 2012 presidential. CT & PA are substantially whiter and/or less black than the general, though.

Wouldn't you expect a Democratic primary to be blacker than a general election, since blacks go overwhelmingly for the Dems?

Not necessarily. There are plenty of states where the primary has been less black than the general, especially from 2008 onward; anecdotally, it seems more to be the rule than the exception. It's quite common in the South, though not universal.

Note: I'd expect this to not apply in states where state/local primaries are held on the same day as presidential primaries. Especially in conservative-leaning states and/or places with large swaths of R-dominated territory, you'll likely have many white Democrats crossing over to vote in the Republican primary due to that being the de-facto general election at the local level.

[Adam Griffin]

I would be terrified to be at a Clinton rally. Literally any time the networks cut away to one, you can hear "Fight Song" in the background. Jesus Christ: is there some sort of subliminal brainwashing technique to it?

[Adam Griffin]

Based on the evangelical/born-again segment of exit polling in PA (42% of electorate; 58% supported Trump), I don't see how Trump doesn't clear a majority in the state. This usually isn't his strongest demographic.

[Adam Griffin]

OMG, jfern, PC and all of the Clinton hacks: can you take all of your petty bullshit sniping to PM or to another thread? Nobody reading this thread gives a shit about your stupid quarreling and nobody wants to see it. We're here to read numbers and results.

[Adam Griffin]

I would be terrified to be at a Clinton rally. Literally any time the networks cut away to one, you can hear "Fight Song" in the background. Jesus Christ: is there some sort of subliminal brainwashing technique to it?

Right before Fight Song we gave Trump lots of boos.

This is all I can think of right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axSnW-ygU5g

[Adam Griffin]

OMG, jfern, PC and all of the Clinton hacks: can you take all of your petty bullshit sniping to PM or to another thread? Nobody reading this thread gives a shit about your stupid quarreling and nobody wants to see it. We're here to read numbers and results.

and no one cares about your bitching. It's the internet get over it.

Yeah, the one whining for the past two pages (or several months, whichever) isn't the one bitching...

[Adam Griffin]

I would be terrified to be at a Clinton rally. Literally any time the networks cut away to one, you can hear "Fight Song" in the background. Jesus Christ: is there some sort of subliminal brainwashing technique to it?

That song rules. I work out to Rachel Padden.

It's a fine song. It's not fine to play the song on an endless loop at any and every campaign event, which is the impression I keep getting every time I see coverage of one.

[Adam Griffin]

Any guesses on who is going to win Newtown?

Presumably, the candidate who smeared herself in the blood of dead children for political expediency!

[Adam Griffin]

CT (11% in):

Clinton 49.8
Sanders 48.5

[Adam Griffin]

Huh. CNN hasn't called DE for Hillary, but MSNBC called it about 10 minutes ago.

CNN usually is the last one to make a call on any state not called when the polls close. I'm not sure what has stigmatized them; certainly not that AWFUL exit poll call, since this has been their track record during the entire primary.

[Adam Griffin]

Huh.
Wait, so even if Sanders were to somehow win CT, PA, and RI, would it change anything?

If the margins are large enough for him, then it might result in a net gain in delegates. The main problem is MD: it has the second-largest number of delegates in tonight's contests and the electorate is nearly half-black, so you do the math.

[Adam Griffin]

Huh.
Wait, so even if Sanders were to somehow win CT, PA, and RI, would it change anything?

If the margins are large enough for him, then it might result in a net gain in delegates. The main problem is MD: it has the second-largest number of delegates in tonight's contests and the electorate is nearly half-black, so you do the math.

Just an example (I actually think MD will be stronger for Clinton):

[Adam Griffin]

I don't want him to win RI unless he also wins CT. Why? Because of the map: this will be the first guaranteed case of one individual state being completely surrounding by states that were won by another candidate (i.e.: SD, 2008).

[Adam Griffin]

Oh good more Fight Song playing at Clinton Campaign HQ

[Adam Griffin]

Why would PA be called with 2% in?

A combination of exit polls and the fact that they must feel confident enough in the sampling they have from Philadelphia to determine that AA turnout/support is too strong to be overcome.

[Adam Griffin]

I don't want him to win RI unless he also wins CT. Why? Because of the map: this will be the first guaranteed case of one individual state being completely surrounding by states that were won by another candidate (i.e.: SD, 2008).

Yeah. WV is going to stick out pretty badly as well.

This is why I'm hoping he also wins IN & KY!

[Adam Griffin]

cnn - clinton wins pa

They couldn't call it with the exit poll but that 10% in from Philly and nothing from anywhere else was good enough?

Yeah, odd they did it after only Philly came in but not with just the exit poll.

As we saw last week, CNN's exit polling is absolute garbage and even they know it. Had it showed 60/40 or more for Clinton, then they probably would have called it immediately. Apparently their poll showed 56-44.

[Adam Griffin]

Cenk finally accepts Bernie is done.

Link plz

[Adam Griffin]

Hillary victory speeches never disappoint when it comes to hilarious "YAAAAAAS QUEEN" LGBT people on the front row behind her lurching about this way and that.

[Adam Griffin]

How stupid are the people or Rhode Island? The aesthetics of the map are horrible now.

He can still win CT! He has to now.

[Adam Griffin]

Wow, Fetterman is close to overtaking Sestak at this point!

[Adam Griffin]

If you guys think the map looks ugly now, imagine how ugly it'll look if Sanders wins IN, KY, or WV...

As I said a few pages back, that is what we need considering Sanders is likely to win in WV. Such a result would prevent any (likely) contiguity violations unless something weird happens out west. It'd ensure there were no individual states completely isolated from any other states won by the same candidate.

[Adam Griffin]

Here is the best quote for the Bernie Reddit page showing the general reason why the BernieBros are so bad:

"We need to start rallying in African American communities! They lack internet access and reading skills so we need to tell them face to face how great Bernie would be for them!"

Good God kids, so "progressive" and for Bernie but so racist.

Link plz