OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm still somewhat surprised the Dem's gubernatorial field never got any bigger, frankly.

I am too. We have some low tier, and some middle tier, but usually when you get a race with no top tier candidate you see people come out from all over. Where's the Jennifer Brunners, Nina Turners, Mike Colemans, Jay Williams,  heck someone like Marcy Kaptur could jump in and be the front runner.

Brunner is the only candidate on that list who'd even arguably be a step up from the folks running (and I'm not convinced that she'd be a better candidate than any of the current candidates aside from Sutton).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm still somewhat surprised the Dem's gubernatorial field never got any bigger, frankly.

I am too. We have some low tier, and some middle tier, but usually when you get a race with no top tier candidate you see people come out from all over. Where's the Jennifer Brunners, Nina Turners, Mike Colemans, Jay Williams,  heck someone like Marcy Kaptur could jump in and be the front runner.

Brunner is the only candidate on that list who'd even arguably be a step up from the folks running (and I'm not convinced that she'd be a better candidate than any of the current candidates aside from Sutton).

I never said any of these would be a step up, but when you have a group of mid and lower tier candidates for governor, you expect a ton more in than just 4.

Ah, I see what you mean.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm still somewhat surprised the Dem's gubernatorial field never got any bigger, frankly.

I am too. We have some low tier, and some middle tier, but usually when you get a race with no top tier candidate you see people come out from all over. Where's the Jennifer Brunners, Nina Turners, Mike Colemans, Jay Williams,  heck someone like Marcy Kaptur could jump in and be the front runner.

Brunner is the only candidate on that list who'd even arguably be a step up from the folks running (and I'm not convinced that she'd be a better candidate than any of the current candidates aside from Sutton).

I don't know - I think Jay Williams would do pretty well, if he had run.

I think he'd be a pretty weak statewide candidate, tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm still somewhat surprised the Dem's gubernatorial field never got any bigger, frankly.

I am too. We have some low tier, and some middle tier, but usually when you get a race with no top tier candidate you see people come out from all over. Where's the Jennifer Brunners, Nina Turners, Mike Colemans, Jay Williams,  heck someone like Marcy Kaptur could jump in and be the front runner.

Brunner is the only candidate on that list who'd even arguably be a step up from the folks running (and I'm not convinced that she'd be a better candidate than any of the current candidates aside from Sutton).

I don't know - I think Jay Williams would do pretty well, if he had run.

I think he'd be a pretty weak statewide candidate, tbh.

He'd have hurt Schiavoni, being 1: another man, and 2: another Youngstown-candidate.

We've had two crap polls, so it's hard to say how people are going, but Williams presumably would have captured a larger chunk of the Black vote than any of the current candidates are.

Precisely. Winning over Youngstown and African-Americans would be important, as would his amazing background in community development, commerce, and economic development. I think he might also win over younger voters.

That said, while he might have a slight lean in the primaries, I could never see him winning the general.

Why vote for someone who brings nothing to the table in terms of electability? 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd say they range from B+ to A-, grade wise. Cordray's continuous flirtation with entering has been bad for fundraising and establishing name ID, which will be crucial. The saving grace right now is that DeWine and Husted are going to go for each other's jugulars in the Republican primary. Right now, I'd say the race is Likely R. It could bump up to Safe R with Husted, depending on how things fair, or it could go to Tossup. The election is obviously a long way a way.

All that said, I'm generally more impressed with the downticket, with the exception of the aforementioned Treasurer candidate. Comparative A grade candidates running for Attorney General and Auditor, and a solid B+/A- for Secretary of State.

I'd rate the field much more pessimistically (although I am a pessimistic person)

Governor:
Rep- Husted A+, Dewine A-, Taylor B-, Renacci D+
Dem- Sutton B-, Schiavoni C+, Whaley C, Pillich C-

AG
Rep- Yost B
Dem- Dettlebach C+

SOS
Rep- Larose A, Pelanda C+
Dem- Clyde B-

Auditor
Rep- Faber B-
Dem- Space C+

Treasurer
Rep- Sprague B, Mingo C-
Dem- Richardson D-

I'd say Governor:
Husted A+, DeWine A-/B+ (right on the border), Taylor C-, Renacci C-
Sutton C+, Schiavoni B, Whaley B-, Pillich C

SoS:
LaRose A, Palenda C
Clyde B

AG:
Yost B
Deittelbach A-

Treasurer:
Sprague B, Mingo C-
Richardson D-

Auditor:
Faber B
Space B

Right now, I think the Democrats win the AG and Auditor's races.  SoS is definitely possible, but I don't think Clyde will win unless 2018 is a real Democratic wave (which is very possible)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd say they range from B+ to A-, grade wise. Cordray's continuous flirtation with entering has been bad for fundraising and establishing name ID, which will be crucial. The saving grace right now is that DeWine and Husted are going to go for each other's jugulars in the Republican primary. Right now, I'd say the race is Likely R. It could bump up to Safe R with Husted, depending on how things fair, or it could go to Tossup. The election is obviously a long way a way.

All that said, I'm generally more impressed with the downticket, with the exception of the aforementioned Treasurer candidate. Comparative A grade candidates running for Attorney General and Auditor, and a solid B+/A- for Secretary of State.

I'd rate the field much more pessimistically (although I am a pessimistic person)

Governor:
Rep- Husted A+, Dewine A-, Taylor B-, Renacci D+
Dem- Sutton B-, Schiavoni C+, Whaley C, Pillich C-

AG
Rep- Yost B
Dem- Dettlebach C+

SOS
Rep- Larose A, Pelanda C+
Dem- Clyde B-

Auditor
Rep- Faber B-
Dem- Space C+

Treasurer
Rep- Sprague B, Mingo C-
Dem- Richardson D-

I'd say Governor:
Husted A+, DeWine A-/B+ (right on the border), Taylor C-, Renacci C-
Sutton C+, Schiavoni B, Whaley B-, Pillich C

SoS:
LaRose A, Palenda C
Clyde B

AG:
Yost B
Deittelbach A-

Treasurer:
Sprague B, Mingo C-
Richardson D-

Auditor:
Faber B
Space B

Right now, I think the Democrats win the AG and Auditor's races.  SoS is definitely possible, but I don't think Clyde will win unless 2018 is a real Democratic wave (which is very possible)

These are decent ratings, I think they underrate built in state name ID though. Dettlebach may be a good get (still dont buy it, I'd double down he flames out bad) Mary Taylor is a lazy candidate and a terrible fundraiser and I still dont believe she'd ever be rated worse than Nan Whaley for any office simply because half the state knows who she is to start.

maybe its a bias of mine, but I dont think Clyde is a good candidate, she is the best candidate the democrats have run for SOS in 20 years not named Brunner though.

Part of why I'm placing less emphasis on name ID than usual is I think it matters less for row offices in wave years.  In Taylor's case, I may be biased, but she's always struck me as being just a complete disaster of a candidate for Governor and I think she was pretty incompetent at almost everything she did as LG.  Plus, the way she tried to exploit her kids struggles with opiate addiction for political gain was so transparent that I think it actually damaged her brand a bit. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The CFPB announced a new payday lending rule the other day: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/business/payday-loans-cfpb.html

I think he may finally get a clear yes or no from Cordray in the coming weeks as it had been speculated that he was waiting on signing off on this new rule before possibly leaving the CFPB to run for governor.

Guys, he's not running. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wanted to ask, why would Husted be the better GE Candidate and why do some people here think he can beat DeWine?  From an outsider looking at the polling, DeWine appears to be the frontrunner.

Dewine has high name ID but a ton of baggage, husted is dynamic, younger, conservative in all the right issues, moderate enough for cross over voters, likeable, and good looking. If his name was Juan Husted he'd be talked about as the next GOP president. Even liberal democrats in Ohio would say they don't hate him.

Pretty much this. Though the last bit was much more true before 2014. Purging voter rolls and killing Golden Week has tarnished his reputation a fair bit.

Agreed.  Husted doesn't have the crossover appeal with Democrats that he once did although I do think he's still seen as someone we can at least have a functional working relationship with if he's elected in a way that DeWine isn't.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Justice Bill O'Neill, the sole Democrat on the State SC, is looking to make good on his earlier statement that he would run for Governor should neither Cordray or Turner file. Expect an announcement out on the 29th.

sigh

Why? 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fresh off the heels of State Rep. Palenda's announcement she would not continue to seek the Secretary of State's office, Franklin County Auditor has announced he will not seek the State Treasurer's office. This leaves the Republicans with no contested primaries other than the Gubernatorial. (And the Senatorial, but wrong thread.)

Also, greater Toledo-area State Senator Cliff Hite has unexpectedly resigned without elaboration. I'm actually fairly saddened by this, as he was one of few Republicans in the state legislature that could be worked with on energy issues.

Told ya  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fresh off the heels of State Rep. Palenda's announcement she would not continue to seek the Secretary of State's office, Franklin County Auditor has announced he will not seek the State Treasurer's office. This leaves the Republicans with no contested primaries other than the Gubernatorial. (And the Senatorial, but wrong thread.)

Also, greater Toledo-area State Senator Cliff Hite has unexpectedly resigned without elaboration. I'm actually fairly saddened by this, as he was one of few Republicans in the state legislature that could be worked with on energy issues.

Told ya  

Just means FCDP needs to hurry up and recruit somebody. After O'Brien hanging on last cycle, can't take this spot for granted.

*begins foaming at the mouth in anger at the mention of O'Brien's name*

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mingo is running for State Senate, according to what I've heard.

Nice!  Democrats might actually have a good shot at picking up OH-3 in that case.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Huh. I suppose the 3rd could be competitve. Though I'd be surprised if Mingo wouldn't have to go up against Anne Gonzales in a primary. Dem's bench here seems sort of weak. Adam Miller underperformed the 17th last cycle and Brown was only just appointed to the 20th. It's a real shame we lost Bischoff.

True, Bishoff definitely would've won.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Playing with data from the BOE, it looks like Clinton got ~20,000 more votes than Trump across the 3rd. The issue is down the ballot. Miller only got ~3,000 more votes than his Republican opponent in the 17th, Bishoff only got ~4,000 more votes in the 20th, and Gonzales beat her Democratic opponent by nearly ~10,000 votes in the 19th. Winnable, but again, not sure who the Democrats would run.

Gonzales is also kinda nuts though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Issue 1: No

Issue 2: Undecided

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

State House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger is building up toward a run for Auditor. This could set up an absolutely brutal primary against ex-Senate President, Keith Faber. Great news for Space, IMO.

Oh wow!  Big news if true!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I have it from a pretty reliable source that Columbus City Councilman and former State Representative, Michael Stinziano, will be running for Franklin County Auditor next year.

Nice.  He's a good guy and I think he can probably win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I have it from a pretty reliable source that Columbus City Councilman and former State Representative, Michael Stinziano, will be running for Franklin County Auditor next year.

Nice.  He's a good guy and I think he can probably win.

Assuming Mingo isn't running for re-election, and is going to try for State Senate, I'm not sure who the Franklin County GOP will field. But yeah, Stinziano's a good fit for the County -- he should play as well in the burbs as he does in the city. If not better.

Stil, FCRP should fight like Hell to keep that seat.

They're saving their powder for whenever Ron "Lucifer in the Flesh" O'Brien retires.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Anything interesting our Ohio posters will be watching tomorrow?

Cincinnati Mayoral comes to mind, if only to see whether or not Cranley can hold on. Cleveland seems decided for Jackson, but there's an outside chance it could be close. I fully expect Issue 1 to overheating my pass, and Issue 2 to fail in a similar manner. There's also the insurgent WFP affiliate trying to take on members of the Columbus City Council and School Board. I expect them to fail, though they might succeed in getting one of their 5 candidates elected. Oh, and Toledo Mayoral. How could I forget?

Neat title races going on for Upper Arlington City Council and Youngstown Municipal Court, as well.

Pulling for Wade Kapszukiewicz and (ugh) Zack Reed (the latter only b/c Frank Jackson is even worse).  At least Wade has a real chance of winning.  And Zach Klein is pretty much a lock to win Columbus City Attorney

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

also we need some news so we can change the title, since the "rampant sexual harassment" turned out bogus.

Maybe I'll change it to "Incumbents ousted" this evening.

hopefully the lima mayor is one.

I think incumbents are mostly safe right now, Jackson, PHH, and the Lima Mayor should win, Cranley is the only one in trouble I believe. But the Lima's Mayors race is going to be close. I just think the city is too D for the R to pull it off.

Looks like Wade Kapszukiewicz won

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I wonder what the chances are Chabot and/or Turner are looking at retirement? My disappointment in the Franklin County suburbs aside, last night was decent for Democrats.

I’ve had Turner pegged as a retirement possibility for a while now.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At the statewide level, we passed a constitutional amendment called Mary's Law that a California millionaire has been financing around the country. The amendment calls for "victim's rights" in criminal proceedings. Most of it is redundant, as the Ohio Constitution already featured a set of victim's rights, while part of it is incredibly harmful and hampers due process by letting the victims of crime refuse participation in the discovery process.

We also rejected an amendment that would have set a fixed price the state pays for pharmaceuticals and tied that price to the discount rate the VA pays. Nice on paper, but a lot of problems with enforcement, and some weird provisions about using tax dollars to pay for a private legal defense of the bill passed and incurred law suits, which almost certainly would have given enforcement issues.

The incumbent Mayor of Toledo lost re-election to another Democrat, the incumbent Mayor of Lima retained his seat versus a competent Republican, the incumbent Mayor of Cincinatti crushed his opposition after barely scraping into second place during the open primary, and the Mayor of Cleveland won an unprecedented fourth term.

Whoa letting alleged victims opt out of discovery!? That’s insane. Is that even constitutional?

No, it’ll be struck down.  Still horrible

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Chief of staff for Senate Democrats resigns due to sexual harassment allegations.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/11/ohio_senate_democrats_chief_of.html

not a good look for Schiavoni

Why?  He's not even Senate Minority Leader anymore.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Unless Schiavoni knew this guy was a harasser when he was hired, which seems unlikely, meaningless. Voters aren't dumb. Though, they are uninformed, and I seriously doubt this becomes a big story for Schiavoni.

Unrelated: There are now three serious Democratic candidates running in OH-21, which will be an open seat with Duffey's term limits looming.

you don't think it is bad for the guy schiavoni brought in to run his caucus had to resign due to sexual harassment? Come on...

Do I think its a serious issue? no. Is it a bad look for Schiavoni? absolutely, especially running in a field with 3 women

I don’t even think it’s a minor issue for him tbh.  I’d be surprised if it comes up at all.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Unless the Senate Dems CoS's reputation proceeded him, and nothing points to it doing so, then it really is a non-issue for Schiavoni. If any of the women running tried that angle, without proof of Schiavoni knowing he hired a predator, I think it would simply backfire.

I can't disagree enough, the second sexual harassment, a popular issue right now, comes up, any of the other candidates can say "you hired a man who had to resign due to sexual misconduct to run your caucus, it's a Mike drop line

I agree with Buckeyenut, it’ll backfire in a big way for anyone who tries to make an issue of it.

Edit: In other new, Tom Patton just dropped out.