OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The thought of "Governor Kucinich" frightens me. I don't think he can win the general, but in a potential wave year you never know.

Why? I agree that he's a goner in a GE which is why I can't lend my coveted endorsement to him, but Governor Kucinich would be absolutely awesome, eccentricities and all.

He’s a pro-Trump hack and Russia shill who is notoriously unprincipled and bankrupted the city of Cleveland as Mayor.  In fact, he was such a disaster as mayor that he lost re-election to a Republican.  Even then, that was like a Democrat screwing up so badly that Republican gets elected Mayor of San Francisco today.

Counterpoint: Everyone thought he did the right thing in hindsight in refusing to sell Cleveland Municipal Light.

If Kucinich could win the nomination, I'd be fine with it.I agree with most of his policies. The scary thing is that he would be toxic to most of the state and ruin the very good chances of both Dettelbach and Space.

I’d probably vote for Husted over him.  That should tell you all you need to know

That you're not enough of a hack?

Also Husted's not leading any ticket, last I checked.

I know, my point is that Kucinich is *really* unpopular outside the white part of Cleveland, even among Democrats.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

On its surface that would appear to be a pretty good map for a Democrat. Tough to analyze on its face where cordray went wrong, even acknowledging that it was a razor tight race. Completely bombed in the Southwest outside Cincy and Dayton perhaps?

That's typical in Southwest, especially back then (Hamilton County is bluer than it used to be.) Southwest is the most Republican region of Ohio.

That, and it's DeWine's home region. If Cordray had won some Democratic precincts in Xenia and/or done a little better around Springfield, he would have had a narrow victory. Husted has played this election like a fiddle in joining DeWine's ticket, and they will be very strong in the Dayton metro.

Would love to see more of Oryxslayer's maps, but my guess would be that Cordray will need to 1: continue to overperform the Columbus exurbs, 2: make back gains in Appalachia, and 3: perform stronger than he historically has in NEOH. Strickland always underperformed that region, and it is where Ohio Democrats have always needed to maximize turnout. Hopefully, with Ted not on the ticket and a local on the ticket, Cordray pulls it off.

#1 is basically a given sincr Republicans are likely in for a NoVA in 2017-level historic beatdown in almost all of Franklin County regardless of the race (and Cordrey has a strong personal brand in the southwestern part of the county).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

It gets worse:
https://twitter.com/im_PULSE/status/986372134703419393

Not to engage in whataboutism (I’m tepidly pro Cordray) but I eagerly await everyone jumping on the establishment’s connections to the Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati royal/noble families, or to the Mubarak regime back in the day and no doubt the Sisi regime in the future with the zeal we’re all jumping on Kucinich for association with Assad.

We’re the imperial hegemon atm (or at least we were, and are a great power now). Really unpleasant people the world over want our politicians’ support. I should hope that we’re all not so naive as to judge Kucinich for merely backing a loser in the lobbying game of “Get Washington To Forgive Your Atrocities.”

That’s a fair point, but there are plenty of other issues with Kucinich.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For the record I'm not a Kuchinich supporter, but I think it would be absolutely hilarious if he won. I'd be the happiest boy on Atlas.

I'm in the same boat. He's a little too kooky, but the meltdowns from some of the red avatars here would be hilarious.

“For the record, I’m not a Stein voter, but I think it would be absolutely hilarious if she cost Democrats the election.  I’d be the happiest boy on Atlas.  Trump’s a little kooky, but the meltdowns from some of the red avatars here would be hilarious.” - Basically the logic of many on the left who sat out 2016.  

Treating bad outcomes which will cause many people to get hurt as cause for celebration simply because it might upset someone you don’t like or b/c “LOL wouldn’t it be crazy if that happened” is a pretty elitist mindset and such attitudes are generally a luxury only afforded to those who will never have to worry about where their next meal is coming from and tend to suggest a remarkable lack of empathy for those hurt by the results of certain electoral outcomes.  Elections aren’t some game that exists only as an excuse to upset people you disagree with; they have significant consequences and when bad people win it can put them in a position to destroy the lives of some of the most vulnerable members of society.  I would have hoped that would be self-evident to folks who dedicate as much time as you guys do to True Left virtue signaling, but I guess not.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For the record I'm not a Kuchinich supporter, but I think it would be absolutely hilarious if he won. I'd be the happiest boy on Atlas.

I'm in the same boat. He's a little too kooky, but the meltdowns from some of the red avatars here would be hilarious.

“For the record, I’m not a Stein voter, but I think it would be absolutely hilarious if she cost Democrats the election.  I’d be the happiest boy on Atlas.  Trump’s a little kooky, but the meltdowns from some of the red avatars here would be hilarious.” - Basically the logic of many on the left who sat out 2016.  

Treating bad outcomes which will cause many people to get hurt as cause for celebration simply because it might upset someone you don’t like or b/c “LOL wouldn’t it be crazy if that happened” is a pretty elitist mindset and such attitudes are generally a luxury only afforded to those who will never have to worry about where their next meal is coming from and tend to suggest a remarkable lack of empathy for those hurt by the results of certain electoral outcomes.  Elections aren’t some game that exists only as an excuse to upset people you disagree with; they have significant consequences and when bad people win it can put them in a position to destroy the lives of some of the most vulnerable members of society.  I would have hoped that would be self-evident to folks who dedicate as much time as you guys do to True Left virtue signaling, but I guess not.

They're saying they'd enjoy seeing Kucinich become Governor, not just get the nomination.

Which would still be absolutely horrible for Ohio.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In Cincinnati, even relatives of Parkland survivors prefer Cordray to Kucinich. Her argument is basically that Kucinich can't win and that you're delusional if you think we're getting an AWB in Ohio. Which is accurate. She says Kucinich is "promising something he can't deliver" and that "people will die while we wait for that ban." Ouch! She also says "I live in the real world" on multiple occasions.

I appreciate that pragmatism, in the Democratic Party, isn't dead after all.

I find that Democrats in this area are among the most pragmatic I've ever seen and we're very skeptical of grand promises. Idealism died here a long time ago if it ever even existed in the first place. Kucinich is also just broadly hated here, even among Bernie supporters, who aren't that common in the first place (even college students complain that Bernie is "literally a socialist" or that he was full of crap when he was promising free college.) Kucinich's brand of politics is an incredibly poor fit here.

This is single most accurate sentence I've ever read about Ohio btw.

You wouldn’t know jack sh!t about Ohio if Brutus bit you on the ass.

This is the point where I mention Ohio State is my most hated FBS team. That's right, above Alabama.

This is the point where I mention that no one cares.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

 I generally feel about Ohio the way IceSpear feels about the people of West Virginia.

You are perfectly free to stay out of the state for the rest of your life. I think we'd all be happier for it. But if you don't want to come, please don't poke your head into this thread and actively advocate for Ohioans to suffer because of your prejudices.

I am loving all these righteous smackdowns. There are states I'm not too fond of because of their politics or whatever, but I there isn't a single state where I'd want the people there to suffer. I just can't understand that complete lack of empathy.

I don't want people in Ohio to suffer, I want them to get the Kuch.

You’re getting really boring, so I’m gonna put you on ignore now and recommend anyone else interested in civil discussion or intelligent debate do the same.  Bye.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I have this at Lean R (much closer to tilt R than Likely R) for now, but that could easily change.  Honestly, this may just come down to how big the Democratic wave is in Ohio (much like the SoS race), whereas the AG, Auditor, and (admitedly less confident about this one) Treasurer’s offices should flip even if the wave isn’t as big in Ohio as it is in most states.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think we pick up SOS before Treasurer. Clyde and Richardson are both strong, and while Sprague is weaker than LaRose, the fact of the matter is Richardson will have extra hurdles as a candidate of color. Does Richardson boost turnout in Cincinnati? Yes. Hamilton County in general? Yes. Maybe even in Warren County? Possibly. But looking at trends, he simply won't do as well in Trumbull and Mahoning, and even if, say, Zack Space and Sherrod Brown win back Monroe and Belmont, maybe even Jefferson, it's unlikely Richardson does.

As a resident of the Cincinnati area, I don't see Richardson boosting turnout in Warren County. He's not well known outside of Cincinnati, and Warren County is very white and very racist.

This.  Shame the Republicans didn’t end up running Mingo   Oh well, hopefully Stinziano beats him in the Franklin County Auditor’s race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Junk poll

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The same poll had Brown up by 14 , it isn't junk

Yes it is

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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That’s hilariously sad. A former President of the Senate is raising an amount of money that’s a middle class salary for a statewide race.

So Faber’s term in the State Senate, and his tenure as President, ended in 2016. He’s been in the State House since then, very conmon for Ohio legislators do a switcheroo. Point being, at the end of each year, Columbus Monthly puts out a superlatives list for legislators, and Faber always cleaned up with the worst ones. In the 2016 edition, with Faber headed to the House, Columbus Monthly noted he would have a lot of trouble getting his calls returned after ending his run as Senate President.

And they were right.

Yeah, Faber sucks

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/RichCordray/status/1025756027227201536

I do like Cordray but I always thought people exaggerated when they said that he was boring. I now can see that he really is that boring.

Have any of you ever personally see Cordray speak? IMO he is much better in person.

Nooooooooooooooo he isn't.

I just heard him Sunday and BuckeyeNut is absolutely right about this, sorry

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I know this is sort of off-topic, but I was browsing Mike DeWine's wiki page, and I noticed his election history (link). This guy has been bouncing around from office to office - Rep, to Lt Gov, to Senate, to AG, now to Governor. And he wasn't always successful in his attempts either. This seems like blatant empty suit ladder climbing. Does this guy even have a personal goal in politics aside from consolidating power? Because it looks like he just views Ohio's public offices as a buffet for himself to sample over almost 40 years.

Sounds about right

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Interesting tidbit: Hillary Clinton made a max donation to Clyde’s Campaign for SOS. And that’s a pretty penny. Roughly $12.7k!

Can we just talk about what a joke that "limit" is for a second?!

It's seriously ludicrous. I think caps are a clumsy solution to the problem anyway, but at that point you might as well not have a cap.

Ohio is desperately in need of campaign finance reform. Our whole state government is blatantly pay to play.

This

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Any polls for DeWine vs. Cordray likely to drop soon?  We've gotten everything from FL-GOV to FL-SEN to IN-SEN to MO-SEN, yet nothing on Ohio...

We just got a C+ graded poll from Change Research earlier today. DeWine 45, Cordray 42. When they ask about the Libertarian and the Green, It's DeWine 43, Cordray, 43, Libertarian 6, Green 2. All online. Sort of junky, IMO. They only had Brown +4.

--

In more interesting news, the August Campaign Finance Reports dropped today.

August Filing

Cordray: $1.89m, $7.19m COH
DeWine: $2.02m, $11.6m COH

Dettelbach: $699k, $4.03m COH
Yost: $336k, $3.41m COH

Clyde: $238k, $1.75m COH
LaRose: $234k, $1.59m COH

Sprague: $101k, $463k COH
Richardson: $140k, $1.21m COH

Space: $154k, $998k COH
Faber: $135k, $1.14m COH

Rob Richardson is a MACHINE.

Ehhhh, Richardson has like no presence whatsoever in Franklin County

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Any polls for DeWine vs. Cordray likely to drop soon?  We've gotten everything from FL-GOV to FL-SEN to IN-SEN to MO-SEN, yet nothing on Ohio...

We just got a C+ graded poll from Change Research earlier today. DeWine 45, Cordray 42. When they ask about the Libertarian and the Green, It's DeWine 43, Cordray, 43, Libertarian 6, Green 2. All online. Sort of junky, IMO. They only had Brown +4.

--

In more interesting news, the August Campaign Finance Reports dropped today.

August Filing

Cordray: $1.89m, $7.19m COH
DeWine: $2.02m, $11.6m COH

Dettelbach: $699k, $4.03m COH
Yost: $336k, $3.41m COH

Clyde: $238k, $1.75m COH
LaRose: $234k, $1.59m COH

Sprague: $101k, $463k COH
Richardson: $140k, $1.21m COH

Space: $154k, $998k COH
Faber: $135k, $1.14m COH

Rob Richardson is a MACHINE.

Ehhhh, Richardson has like no presence whatsoever in Franklin County

That’s okay. He’s evidently the only statewide with ANY presence in Montgomery County...

We’ll see, I think right now Sprague is looking like this cycle’s Mary Taylor.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Dispatch is back to it's Republican hackery: after endorsing Zack Space over Keither Faber, they've endorsed both LaRose and Yost in the SOS and AG's race, respectively.

Really does go to show just how loathes Faber is, though.

Didn't Yost's campaign hire someone from the Dispatch?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Buckeyenut is right that Hamilton County has absolutely no loyalty to DeWine. He has no "home base" advantage in Cincinnati.

For the record, the voters I talked to seemed more like they disliked Cordray than like they liked DeWine (they may have been planning to leave that part of the ballot blank for all I know.) This is very anecdotal though, I didn't phone bank for very long. I think what it comes down to is that Cordray is pretty much a "typical politician," while people see Aftab and Sherrod Brown as beautiful, flawless angels. He's also just less well known; everyone I talked to knew who Aftab was and most knew Sherrod Brown, but some people hadn't heard of Cordray or didn't know much.

I mean...did anyone ever like DeWine?