Sabato: How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ From Presidential Elections

[Blackacre]

I am expecting a Democratic wave to build and Dems gain the House and Govs mansions.  The GOP is favored in the Senate, and 2020 is our shot.  But, who knows with Trump, anything can happen.

In 2020, Susan Collins should run for Gov or retire, because along with Joni Ernst, Tillis, and Gardner, in purple states, Dems will have a good nominee and hopefully its Julian Castro or Tulsi Gabbard.

Nah. Collins is an institution in Maine. Maine, like West Virginia, is more politically complicated than it appears.

[Blackacre]

Nah. Collins is an institution in Maine. Maine, like West Virginia Montana, is more politically complicated than it appears.

ftfy

Yeah, Collins won't go away, unfortunately. If she were to retire, I'd rate it a Tossup and not Lean D, though.

Heh, you might be right but I don't actually think Montana is that much more complicated than it appears. I think Montana's political shades of grey are relatively well-understood, if only because of how close Obama made it on 2008. Montana is a small, rural, somewhat populist, somewhat conservative state, and that lends itself to retail politicians breaking partisan headwinds. Like the Dakotas but with a better D bench and no oil.

I don't think the political complexities of West Virginia are as well understood, by contrast.

As for Maine's class 2 senate seat should Collins retire, I understand your calling it a tossup but I'd call it tilt D. IRV helps Ds and D-caucusing Independents and the GOP bench isnt that strong after LePaige. But it sure as hell wouldn't be Likely or Safe D or even Lean.