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Author Topic: Presidential statistics  (Read 1384 times)
Alexander Hamilton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,167
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: -5.13

« on: July 30, 2009, 06:24:29 PM »




A defeated president has 0% chances to be elected again later.

Grover Cleveland?
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Alexander Hamilton
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,167
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: -5.13

« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2009, 12:20:07 AM »




A defeated president has 0% chances to be elected again later.

Grover Cleveland?


I thought his paragraph began with


A Vice-President that succeeds to a dead or resigning President has Sad

- 44,4% chances to be reelected
- 44,4% chances not to run
- 11,1% chances to be defeated


In this case Sad

A reelected president has :

- 50% chances for his party to keep the White House
- 50% chances for his party to lose the White House

When a president doesn't run, his party has 100% chances to lose the White House.

A defeated president has 0% chances to be elected again later.

The preceding statements have no association with the latter statistically. Cleveland was defeated, and was elected later, so the 0% chance cannot possibly be true.
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