Very good article. I'd rate the runoff as a pure tossup, but I do know a lot of closeted Cochran fans (Democrats and Blacks) who will be coming out of the woodwork on June 24th.
People who didn't vote in either June 3 primary? If they voted in the Democratic primary, they can't vote this time, and if they didn't vote in either primary, why do they all-of-a-sudden care enough about Cochran if they didn't then?
Yes. A lot of Democrats didn't bother voting in the rather uncompetitive Democratic primary and stayed home on June 3rd. I've witnessed a big jump in the number of people around the Starkville/GTR/Tupelo area (which, granted, I haven't been outside that area of the state since June 3rd, so it could also be true in other places) suddenly interested in jumping aboard the Cochran ship. These seem to be mainly older, yet more liberal, upper-middle class White people who generally considered Cochran to be a shoe-in against McDaniel; I guess these folks have now woken-up. Is this a particulary large group of people? Probably not. Are people like this enough to decide the winner of what is sure to be an incredibly close runoff? You bet.
As for McDaniel and his campaign's "enthusiasm", I think its safe to say it peaked on June 3rd. That is not to say that McDaniel's been bleeding support since June 3rd, but just about anybody who had remotely heard about Chris McDaniel and his "muh America, muh liberty, muh FREEDOM" message (a.k.a., drank the McDaniel Kool-Aid) and was dumb enough to
like it did the guy a favor and went out and voted. Will most of these people turn out to vote again? Probably, but I think a similar portion of Cochran's supporters will too. But the way the McDaniel campaign is running does not appear to be designed to court additional support, while Cochran is looking to expand the electorate in his favor. Sure its a difficult task, but its not impossible and IMO McDaniel should have put Cochran to sleep on primary night due to demographic factors alone. The fact that he didn't shows deep failings on the part of his campaign.
