Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know a couple years ago in response to the constant sh[inks]ness of ARG, we got the idea of creating a fake pollster and setting up some blog and website, creating an official looking logo, and including official sounding detail write-ups with numbers that were literally made up out of thin air, and then seeing if the media would pick up on it and give it any attention. Someone made a logo but we never got around to doing the whole thing.

It appears someone else had the same idea, and far too many are buying it hook, line and sinker.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Democratic AL Poll: Clinton 54-43 ()
http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-by-11-points-in-alabama-54-43/

Blacks: 69-29 Clinton
Hispanic: 58-37 Clinton
White: 53-44 Sanders

Sample was 58% white. Is that too much for Alabama?

This really seems off.

Gee, almost like it's completely made up numbers pulled out of thin air?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Black turnout will drop without Obama, but not by 13 points. But in any case:

Exit polls reveal the 2008 primary was 60% female. This sample was 53% female. No cause for the decrease given Hillary's still on the ballot.

JUNK POLL

An Overtime Poll is JUNK!!?!?!?!

Wash your mouth out and get back in your corner.

I'm sorry, but I'm not going to join in on the whole theory that this guy literally sits in his room making up polls and methodology tweaks, blogging, doing a reddit AMA, responding to 100s or 1000s of methodology emails, and reading the death threats some people send to him all just as a big joke to see reactions. No, I get the arguments/sequence of events, but the absolutely pathetic life someone would need to have to stay committed to that sort of joke just makes the idea simply preposterous.

If he releases a poll that is believable, I'm going to use it. I'll disregard outliers like this AL Poll.

Dude have you ever heard of catfishing? People have done far more elaborate hoaxes to just fool ONE person.

Also where is the money to conduct these "polls" coming from? They're just being posted on a blog for free, not sold to a campaign or media outlet.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wulfric: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Of note this is their stated methodology:

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So where do those posted demographic sub samples in their "polls" come from? BY THEIR OWN CLAIM THEY DO NOT ASK FOR THIS INFORMATION.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are we really still entering Overtime polls? ugh.

Yes troll.

OMG YPU ACTUALLY SERIOUSLY BELIEVE THESE ARE REAL POLLS THAT THESE ARE REAL POLLS WHAT THE F[INKS]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

THIS IS NOT A REAL POLL. THIS IS SOME BLOGGER IDIOT WHO JUST PULLS NUMBERS OUT OF HIS ASS.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

THIS IS NOT A REAL POLL. THIS IS SOME BLOGGER IDIOT WHO JUST PULLS NUMBERS OUT OF HIS ASS.

So, this guy doesn't even poll anybody?  I have no idea what the deal is.

Many have proven that some of his numbers are literally impossible. For example Adam Griffin noted he had a Michigan poll with a subsample of the "Other" race showing Hillary 46-Bernie 45. However the percentage of voters in Michigan who aren't white, black or Hispanic is only 3%. To have a one percentage point difference like that, you'd need a sample of around 100, even with rounding it'd probably require more than 70. The TOTAL sample size of the poll was about 400, so it would require that almost 20% of respondents be not white, black or Hispanic for those numbers to even be conceivable.

Just one example. I'm sure you can find countless other examples of implausible nonsense if you page through the archives. The fact that so many dumbs think this crap is real is unbelievable.

It is also worth noting that this operation simply posts polls for free with no way to monetize them, yet the expenses of conducting as many polls as it does would have to be at least $10k/week.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK someone explain to me how this Virginia poll isn't full of s[inks]: http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb12-Feb14DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Virginia.pdf

It has Sanders winning 18-30s 75-21, a very plausible number. But let's look at the income subsamples. Over 10% of respondents are in the <$10,000 category. It's probably safe to assume almost anyone in that category is either a student or young still living with their parents (even that's pretty low, I made over $10k working part time in college over 10 years ago), so they'd probably be strong for Sanders right? Nope! 57-38 for Hillary! Oh and Sanders only wins the $10k-$25k bracket 52-43, and the $25k-45k bracket 53-40. In fact by my calculations Hillary actually wins the under $25k, which makes up 36% of respondents in a state with a per capita income of $44k which is known for tons of affluent Democrats.

But just by the numbers, the poll cites 96 18-30s giving Sanders 75%, and yet 176 respondents with under $45k income giving Sanders only about 49% and a narrow plurality. Anyone with basic math skills can tell you that unless 18-30s are just as likely to make over $45k than the other groups and have a distribution amongst the income brackets comparable to that of the poll at large, this is simply not possible.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know what would be amazing? If any of the believers in this "polling company" would actually respond to any of the debunkings of how bad or implausible their numbers look that have appeared here, and on many other sites, both of the left wing and right wing, and issue a defense of the numbers based in actual statistics and mathematical concepts instead of just saying "oh but the guy did an AMA on Reddit, this must be totally legit!"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wait, we're still discussing this "firm" as if it's a real thing? I already showed how they're literally just making up numbers on page 15. Stop discussing this "pollster" as if it's anything other than one bored guy making up numbers and claiming that he has a staff, in the hopes that he'll get a paid client at some point in the future. This thread should be locked and any future posts about it should be deleted.

Real polling costs a lot of money: if he was actually conducting as many polls as he was posting, then the only possible explanation would be that he's a very wasteful multi-millionaire with nothing to do. If he was a very wasteful multi-millionaire with nothing to do, then he'd actually hire the staff necessary to perform real polling with real methodology, real questions and real results. Ever wonder why well-established and respected polling firms aren't cranking out multiple polls of irrelevant states each and every week? Yeah...

Shhhh....

This has Update-sized potential.  25 pages!

Wulfric's defense was "Well maybe he's independently wealthy"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How hilarious is it to read this thread in hindsight? Especially the ones defending them.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Did they put out anything as inaccurate this poll?

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-illinois-2016-democrat-president-primary-clinton-sanders-met-0308-20160308-story.html

Why does it matter?

Bullsh!t made up polls are bullsh!t made up polls. Even if the numbers end up being closer than others. If you look at our predictions threads some posters come close to predicting the actual results. But if they set up what they claimed was a polling company and that those predicted numbers were from polls, that doesn't mean they'd be correct or that the polls would be any less nonsense.

This was still a pure fraud and I have to laugh at anyone whoever took it seriously after all the evidence came in. What's embarrassing is Atlas was the only place where that was the case, even r/sandersforpresident quit citing it.