looking at past election results
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Author Topic: looking at past election results  (Read 730 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: January 05, 2013, 01:39:38 AM »
« edited: January 05, 2013, 01:49:37 AM by freepcrusher »

what was each state's "tipping point" in that it was when the state began voting how it currently does. Here's my opinion

Alabama 1964 or 1988
Alaska 1976
Arizona 1952
Arkansas 1972 or 2008
California 2000
Colorado 2008
Connecticut 1928 1960 or 1988
Delaware 1992
Florida 1952
Georgia 1964 or 1988
Hawaii 1960
Idaho 1952 or 1968
Illinois 1992
Indiana 1940
Iowa 1984 or 1996
Kansas 1940
Kentucky 1960 or 2000
Louisiana 1956 1964 or 2000
Maine 1964 1968 or 1996
Maryland 1960
Massachusetts 1928 or 1960
Michigan 1960 or 1992
Minnesota 1932 or 1956
Mississippi 1964
Missouri 2000
Montana 1952
Nebraska 1940
Nevada 1952 or 2008
New Hampshire 1992
New Jersey 1996
New Mexico 1952 or 2008
New York 1960
North Carolina 1964
North Dakota 1940
Ohio 1964
Oklahoma 1960
Oregon 1984
Pennsylvania 1932
Rhode Island 1928
South Carolina 1964
South Dakota 1940
Tennessee 1960 or 2004
Texas 1952 or 2000
Utah 1952
Vermont 1964 or 1980
Virginia 1952 or 2008
Washington 1932
West Virginia 2000
Wisconsin 1984
Wyoming 1944 or 1952
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soniquemd21921
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« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2013, 10:19:07 AM »
« Edited: January 05, 2013, 10:37:24 AM by soniquemd21921 »

Vermont in 1980? I'd pick 1992: Clinton won, Howard Dean was elected governor, Bernie Sanders was re-elected to Congress, and Patrick Leahy was re-elected Senator.

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Vern
vern1988
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« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2013, 09:02:55 PM »

North Carolina, 1964?? I don't understand. North Carolina is a swing state so I would say 2004 for it.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2013, 10:27:25 PM »

For Kentucky it's 2000 when the urban/rural split took hold.

The era from 1994-2000 was really sort of a realignment nationwide. The whole country swung right in 1994. The urban areas recovered. The rural areas didn't.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2013, 11:14:08 PM »

I'd say 1992 for CA, WA, OR, NV, CO, NY, NJ, PA, NH, ME, MD, DE, FL, IL, MI, WI, NM

1992 was a very big year since all those states have been solid blue or swing in nearly every election since then.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2013, 11:59:31 PM »

For Kentucky it's 2000 when the urban/rural split took hold.

The era from 1994-2000 was really sort of a realignment nationwide. The whole country swung right in 1994. The urban areas recovered. The rural areas didn't.

I believe I'm too young to even remember a time when Democrats were undeniably strong in rural areas.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2013, 08:39:18 PM »

I'd say 1992 for CA, WA, OR, NV, CO, NY, NJ, PA, NH, ME, MD, DE, FL, IL, MI, WI, NM

1992 was a very big year since all those states have been solid blue or swing in nearly every election since then.

well let me review those states
CA - it already had a D+PVI in 84 and 88 but I would agree with you that that's when it started to become out of reach for a republican
WA - disagree. It voted for Dukakis in 88
OR - see WA
NV - mostly agree. Though I could argue the blue trend didn't become apparent until 08
CO - disagree. The state more than anything else tends to bounce around in terms of PVI. It actually went to Dole in 96 and voted for Bush by a comfortable margin in 2000
NY - it went for Dukakis in 88. I really see the blue trend in NY occurring in the late 50s. After 1956, the only time New York would go R is in landslide years like 72 or 84 or a split field in 1980
NJ - agreed
PA - disagree. The state has always been slightly dem leaning since the 50s. If you're talking about the Philly collar counties though, then I agree.
NH - agree
ME - the state had a dem trend as early as 1964, but I agree that this is when Maine consistently became a blue state
MD - agreed
DE - agreed
IL - agreed
MI - agreed
wI - disagree. the state voted for Dukakis in 88.
NM - see CO. the state's PVI has never been that consistent.

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