UK AV Referendum Poll

[tpfkaw]

I do think that AV might not be as good for the British left as it might seem - it seems likely to me that Labour voters would be far less likely to give more than one preference than voters of any other party, and also that those who would give more than one preference would be likely to do silly things like preffing Tories over Whigs out of spite.

[minionofmidas]

You can get elected with less than 50% if and only if enough* of one of your major opponents' supporters have no preference between you and another major opponent.
In other words, you can't get elected with more than 50% of the electorate against you. Which is the point.

*how much is enough is of course dependent on a number of factors, including just how close the election is.
There'll always be some idiots who only vote for a candidate with no chance, whether you include them in the tally as valid exhausted votes or exclude them as invalid votes, and thus whether a very narrow win is 50.1-49.9 or 49.7-49.5 is entirely a matter of definition and has no effect on the result's legitimacy.

Why not simply hold a runoff when no candidate commands majority support of the electorate?

When the number of continuing ballots is reduced to below 50% of the electorate, back up a count and hold a new election with any remaining candidates.

Why should they? What the hell is the word "simply" doing there?

[You kip if you want to...]

I do think that AV might not be as good for the British left as it might seem - it seems likely to me that Labour voters would be far less likely to give more than one preference than voters of any other party, and also that those who would give more than one preference would be likely to do silly things like preffing Tories over Whigs out of spite.

It's not good. Liberals will preference Tory and Tory will preference Liberals while some Labour supporters will pref the Liberals, a favour which wouldn't be returned.

[tpfkaw]

I do think that AV might not be as good for the British left as it might seem - it seems likely to me that Labour voters would be far less likely to give more than one preference than voters of any other party, and also that those who would give more than one preference would be likely to do silly things like preffing Tories over Whigs out of spite.

It's not good. Liberals will preference Tory and Tory will preference Liberals while some Labour supporters will pref the Liberals, a favour which wouldn't be returned.

Well, in normal circumstances it's probably a favor that would be returned, although nowadays the Whigs have pretty much been reduced to their right wing and their "ancestral" voters, both of whom would likely favor the Tories, albeit for different reasons.  Part of the thing is the insanely tribalistic nature of British politics - in most countries people dislike or are indifferent to the opposing parties, in Britain people hate them.

[You kip if you want to...]

I do think that AV might not be as good for the British left as it might seem - it seems likely to me that Labour voters would be far less likely to give more than one preference than voters of any other party, and also that those who would give more than one preference would be likely to do silly things like preffing Tories over Whigs out of spite.

It's not good. Liberals will preference Tory and Tory will preference Liberals while some Labour supporters will pref the Liberals, a favour which wouldn't be returned.

Well, in normal circumstances it's probably a favor that would be returned, although nowadays the Whigs have pretty much been reduced to their right wing and their "ancestral" voters, both of whom would likely favor the Tories, albeit for different reasons.  Part of the thing is the insanely tribalistic nature of British politics - in most countries people dislike or are indifferent to the opposing parties, in Britain people hate them.

True, true. I doubt you'd find many "Les hommes du PS, jusqu'aux bouts des ongles" in France, for example as you would "Labour men, through and through."

[YL]

A very high percentage of people (perhaps a majority? Certainly a large minority) will only use one preference anyway. I'm reasonably sure that AV would have less of an impact than its advocates and detractors presume.

I'm inclined to agree - as well as people only using one preference, I don't believe voters will be as predictable in their lower preferences as some people seem to think.  Remember that in Northern Ireland Euro elections there are cases of people voting for Ian Paisley and then transferring to Sinn Féin.

I noticed that Jonathan Harston has a guess at how the Sheffield seats would have voted under AV on his website:
http://mdfs.net/Docs/Sheffield/Election/2010/VotesGE
I think the conclusion is right (Central flips to LD but the others are unchanged) but the details of the transfers look over-simplified to me (e.g. nearly all UKIP votes seem to go to the Tories, BNP votes don't transfer at all).

Of some relevance:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3424

[Phony Moderate]

If this passes, most people will probably still put a cross or tick instead of numbers on their ballot papers.

[You kip if you want to...]

most people

Careful.

[Leftbehind]

I noticed that Jonathan Harston has a guess at how the Sheffield seats would have voted under AV on his website:
http://mdfs.net/Docs/Sheffield/Election/2010/VotesGE
I think the conclusion is right (Central flips to LD but the others are unchanged) but the details of the transfers look over-simplified to me (e.g. nearly all UKIP votes seem to go to the Tories, BNP votes don't transfer at all).

Even the one change - Central - would be on shakier ground now, as that presumes Greens' preferences split 2:1 Lib-Lab, whereas I think that's probably changed by a fair bit these days.

Of some relevance:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3424

...and that's even with a surprisingly leftist preferencing (24% Labour + 24% Greens = 48% leftists vs 31% Tory) from the 10% rump of Liberals - a fair bit away from their usually Tory preferences shown in YG cross-breaks.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZwOrySIIeY

New campaign ad from the No camp. I love how this is more or less what happened when my politics teacher first explained AV to my class.

[tpfkaw]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZwOrySIIeY

New campaign ad from the No camp. I love how this is more or less what happened when my politics teacher first explained AV to my class.

If I were on the fence and I saw that ad, it would make me more likely to vote "yes," since its main message appears to be "we think you're stupid."

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZwOrySIIeY

New campaign ad from the No camp. I love how this is more or less what happened when my politics teacher first explained AV to my class.

If I were on the fence and I saw that ad, it would make me more likely to vote "yes," since its main message appears to be "we think you're stupid."

[Marokai Backbeat]

What an absurd ad.

[You kip if you want to...]

Would people vote for something they didn't understand though?

[Hash]

"This system is too tough, so it's bad". Typical anti-electoral reform arguments.

[Leftbehind]

Yeah, even as someone against AV I think NotoAV are a disgrace, and the fact it was started by a Taxpayers Alliance nutjob is all too clear to see in their cynical arguments.

[Hatman 🍁]

AV has to be one of the easiest systems to understand. That ad was pure "rubbish".

I haven't been following this, but I just read some stuff on Wikipedia about. Good to see Ed's a supporter. I've supported the LibDems in the past (I dont like Tony Blair), but I think I like Labour more now. Also good to see some of my favourite British comedians in favour (David Mitchell and Steven Fry).

[Leftbehind]

An easy transformation

Tony Blair vs Charles Kennedy
Ed Miliband vs Nick Clegg

I think it's easy to see who are the social democrats and who are the massive neoliberals in disguise.

[minionofmidas]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZwOrySIIeY

New campaign ad from the No camp. I love how this is more or less what happened when my politics teacher first explained AV to my class.

If I were on the fence and I saw that ad, it would make me more likely to vote "yes," since its main message appears to be "we think you're stupid."

The entire anti-AV campaign is based on that premise.

Not sure if the other side is better though - we'd need a pro-AV refudiate clone onsite to overexpose me to its arguments.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What an absurd ad.

Indeed. "These rather slow and dumb kids don't support AV... neither should you!" I don't see how that is a winning political message. Especially considering that AV isn't at all that complicated. Even some of the dumber trolls on here are able to figure out how STV works in Atlasia, I'm sure a majority of people in Britian are smart enough to figure out AV.

 

[Bacon King]

People understand how the London mayoral election works, right? How is the AV system really any more "confusing" than that?

[minionofmidas]

People understand how the London mayoral election works, right? How is the AV system really any more "confusing" than that?

A lot of people don't, or behave as if they don't.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZwOrySIIeY

New campaign ad from the No camp. I love how this is more or less what happened when my politics teacher first explained AV to my class.

If I were on the fence and I saw that ad, it would make me more likely to vote "yes," since its main message appears to be "we think you're stupid."

The entire anti-AV campaign is based on that premise.

Not sure if the other side is better though - we'd need a pro-AV refudiate clone onsite to overexpose me to its arguments.

AV aren't really giving people a reason to vote yes accept "AV will almost, maybe, possibly, make a future Conservative or Labour government probably, almost, maybe decide to change their opinion of PR and try to maybe impliment it".

[Insula Dei]

Why doesn't the No to AV campaign focus on the fact that AV is, if anything, less proportional? (Seriously, how many nations are there with a Westminster parliament and more than 95ù of seats being held by the two major parties/coalitions?)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Why doesn't the No to AV campaign focus on the fact that AV is, if anything, less proportional? (Seriously, how many nations are there with a Westminster parliament and more than 95ù of seats being held by the two major parties/coalitions?)

The USA springs to mind.  Zimbabwe could count as well depending whether you treat the two MDC factions separately.