http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Next_100_YearsNo poll. I want to see real original perspectives and arguments.
I'll let you all gloss over the article itself, but for those of you who are too lazy to skim, in summary the book predicts:
- Conflict between US and Islamic terrorism to die down, US and Russia to enter second Cold War
- The Russian government, as well as the governments of its former states, will collapse. Chinese government will fragment as well. Eurasia will go into crisis as a result.
- Turkey, Poland, and Japan to emerge as three main powers. Turkey will have increasing influence over Eurasia and the Middle East, and Israel, while still a powerful nation, will be forced to come to an accommodation with Turkey. Japan will become more aggressive militarily and influence Pacific affairs in a similar manner.
- The US will be allied with the aforementioned countries in the early years of their dominance, but tensions will increase. Germany and Mexico may turn against the US.
- Low birthrates in developed countries, such as those in Europe, will result in dramatic cultural, social, and political shifts, causing Western nations to compete for immigrants. In particular, the US will reverse its policy of discouraging Mexican immigration and will begin trying to entice foreigners - especially Mexicans, to immigrate to the US.
- World War III will start in the mid-21st century, Friedman hypothesizes that the US will be attacked by Turkey and Japan on November 24, 2050, at 5:00 p.m, during Thanksgiving Day.
- Mexico will gain political influence in North America, still a continent of the global political and economic gravity. The Southwestern US will become ethnically, culturally, and socially Mexican, with more citizens there identifying as Mexican rather than American. Conflict will develop between Mexico and the US to fight for dominance of North America and most countries, wary of American dominance, will back Mexico.
- A bunch of technological developments
My opinion: This "political scientist" is probably better suited for fiction writing than anything remotely comparable to what can be considered a serious prediction. The fact alone that his claims are so oddly specific is enough to be suspect, but the only predictions of his I think can be taken seriously are his technological ones. I look forward to being shut out if anyone believes otherwise.
