2015 Election Season in Argentina (1st Round, Oct 25 / Runoff Nov 22)

[RodPresident]

Is Larreta's close call in CABA damaging Macri?
Any chance of a De La Sota upset against Massa? João Santana is working for him.
And who's the favourite to be FpV nominee for BA gubernatorial election? Anibal Fernandez or Julian Dominguez?
And Pino Solanas endorsement? He woke with FAP, lunched with Massa, had a dinner with Rodriguez Saa and slept alone.

[RodPresident]

There's an important primary election to determine the candidates for Governor of the Buenos Aires province, alongside with the PASO. Main tickets are:

Front For Victory (FPV)

- Aníbal Fernández / Martín Sabbatella

- Julián Domínguez / Fernando Espinoza.

The FPV alliance is the likely winner of this election, but the internal contest promises to be entertaining. The Fernández/Sabbatella ticket represents the 'Ultra K' faction of the FPV. Aníbal Fernández is facing hardship, because journalist and TV star Jorge Lanata accused him of being involved in the killing of 3 people, happened in 2008 and attributed to ephedrine traffickers operating in Buenos Aires province. Julián Domínguez has been growing in the polls and maybe he has chances of winning.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1815696-jorge-lanata-presento-un-informe-que-vincula-a-anibal-fernandez-con-el-narcotrafico

Cambiemos: 

- María Eugenia Vidal /  Daniel Salvador (PRO)

Renewal Front (FR):

- Felipe Solá / Daniel Arroyo

Progressives:

- Jaime Linares / Juan Carlos Pugliese (GEN)

- Jorge Ceballos / Victoria Vuoto (Libres del Sur)

Workers' Left Front (FIT):

- Néstor Pitrola / Rubén Sobrero (PO)

- Christian Castillo / Javier Hermosilla (PST)

Compromiso Federal:

- Eduardo D'Onofrio / Ana Savignano

Workers' Socialist Movement (MST):

- Vilma Ripoll / Gustavo Giménez

Other lists:

Popular Front (Adolfo Aguirre), New MAS (Héctor Heberling), Patria Grande (Manuel Bertoldi)

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1816149-cuenta-regresiva-para-las-paso-conoce-a-los-protagonistas-de-la-pelea-bonaerense

Polls:

- Jorge Giacobbe: Fernández / Sabbatella (FPV) 19%, Vidal (PRO) 18%, Domíguez (FPV) 13%, Solá  (FR) 12%

- Raúl Aragón: Solá (FR) 23.2%, Fernández (FPV) 21.3%, Domínguez (FPV) 15.9%

- Aresco: Fernández (FPV) 25.2%, Vidal (PRO) 23.4%, Solá (FR) 18.8%, Domínguez (FPV) 16.8%

Being Governor of Buenos Aires is probably 2nd most powerful position in Argentinean politics, only after Presidency. But it carries a curse. A governor of province never won a Presidential election since Mitre. If Dominguez manages to displace Anibal Fernandez, this move can help to make CFK position weaker in a Scioli government. In 2005, then governor Solá supported CFK against Hilda Duhalde (Eduardo Duhalde's wife) in a senatorial election who consolided Kirchnerist power in Peronism. De La Rua blamed his fall on 2001 because then governor Ruckauf, a Peronist.
If I were in Argentina I'd vote for del Caño in PASO and in general for Scioli or Stolbizer.

[RodPresident]

Is there any rhyme or reason as to why sometimes Adolfo runs and sometimes Alberto runs? This time it's Adolfo, the former president running. It's the first time he has since 2003. Alberto the brother ran the last two times.

Rodriguez Saa never recovered from being rejected after his one-week Presidency. Now, Rodriguez Saa family discovered that it's a good business to keep separate from main Peronist structures. In this election, they can sell their support in runoff in exchange of pork for San Luis.

[RodPresident]

What happened to the left? Left-wing candidates came in first and second in the last two election. Now the Front for Victory has nominated a right-winger, shouldn't at least some of the voters be going elsewhere?

2011 was a very strange election. Binner ascended after almost draw in PASO between Duhalde and Alfonsin, as most electable non-K candidate. Macri was neutral, De La Sota too. Now, Macri rallied UCR and CC machines, as some Federal Peronists (Reutemann) too.
P.S: In Santa Fé, Binner is being smashed with a 4th place in senatorial elections. Perotti (FpV) is winning PASO, with Reutemann (Federal Peronism-PRO) as second place.

[RodPresident]

Kingmakers in run-off will go from Massa and De La Sota to Rodriguez Saa and Trots. If Vidal ends winning BA governorship, I as Macri, I'd offer Massa to be my candidate to governor in 2019, a top cabinet position to De La Sota and Rodriguez Saa, a good thing to Massa running-mate. And Macri will have few things to offer to Massa and De La Sota main enemies on Cordoba are with him.
And I'm very sad that Fernández is being defeated as he and running-mate Sabbatella are very K.

[RodPresident]

It's amusing to see how Saá got only 1.67% nationally but still won his family's stronghold San Luis.

But Saa is almost dead as he had less than 40% at home province.

[RodPresident]

Stolbizer said that she wouldn't vote for Scioli.
I think that for Scioli winning in runoff, price will be very costly as he will have to surrender many things to Massa people. Some people are saying that he promised Foreign Affairs to De La Sota and Economy to Lavagna. A very high price that Cristina would have some problems to solve and that can bring an earlier than expected Cristina-Scioli split. I'd try to get another endorsements as Rodríguez Sáa brothers, Solanas, Lousteau.
I'd rate election now as Likely Macri.
And are people already talking how Macri will split his cabinet. I think that problems will arouse as UCR will demand a larger share as it gave campaign structure to Macri, as PRO is almost inexistent outside Buenos Aires and to attract Non-K Peronists and even people that are with Scioli now.
But Argentina politics is very interesting as candidates that made good showings in a election go to become non-entities in next election, as Bordon, Lopez Murphy and now Binner.

[RodPresident]

From the gubernatorial elections you missed (...)

Thanks, I was almost asleep.

I'd try to get another endorsements as Rodríguez Sáa brothers, Solanas, Lousteau.

Solanas is a non-entity, wonder why would anyone seek his endorsement. In any case, a few days ago he made a tweet that said "Proyecto Sur, que siempre se enfrentó electoralmente al kirchnerismo y al macrismo,  propone votar contra el gobierno nacional." From which we can infer he would probably vote for noone or support Macri.

And Lousteau is another one that doesn't really matter for the national election, but apart from having meeting with the opposition governor of Mendoza he tweeted this yesterday "Alternancia, más equilibrio, balotaje @mariuvidal y no @FernandezAnibal, renovación de intendentes PBA. #lagentevotabien." Which also implies his support for macri against Scioli.


De la Sota is probably noticing right now that Macri got around 53% in Córdoba while Massa and Scioli barely reached 20% and they don't even get 40% between the two of them. If I were him I would be pressing Massa strongly to form an alliance with Macri.

Solanas is about to quit politics and doesn't count.

I'm almost certain that Lousteau will be a key actor in the near future. Don't you think that a rising star like him counts a little more than the retiring film maker? 

As for De la Sota, the result in Córdoba seems to confirm that provincial Peronists are firmly anti-Kirchner. There were previous rumours on a possible understanding between the provincial leader and Scioli, in order to put an end to the Kirchner's mistreatment to Córdoba (Cristina treated badly former BsAs Gov Scioli, too). But people has spoken and that alliance is totally discarded. Lavagna, who is from the province and a friend of De la Sota, assures that Scioli offered him a cabinet post. Such offer was refused (on Scioli's camp they deny talks with Lavagna). Former Minister of Economy says that Scioli is unable to drop the Ultra-K people and hopes that an agreement between Macri and Massa pushes the first to the centre.

On a separate issue, turnout increase might explain the surprising election results. About 2 million of voters more turned out on Sunday (80.8%, 74% in the PASO ). Mauricio Macri added 1.6 million votes, Sergio Massa 0.5 and Daniel Scioli only 0.2.

And De La Sota has personal problems from troubling 70s in Peronist Youth with Carlos Zannini that would prevent endorsement. But I can see that almost every non-Macri anti-K  leader saying no to Scioli, but fearing to endorse Macri to fearing backfire from a Neoliberal adjustment. But with Scioli's defeat, Dissident Peronism will lose their raison d'etre. Some will join PRO and others would go back into Kirchnerist ranks. Thinking about 2019, I can see Schiaretti (governor of Cordoba) as a good option of running mate to Cristina.
And about Michetti as Vice President. We know that was a maneuver to appease her after Macri supporting Rodriguez Larreta, and this was only because UCR infighting about a running-mate candidate. Any chance of an "no es positivo" again? But Senate will be fun in next 2 years with Anibal Fernandez vs. Julio Cobos.

[RodPresident]

Imho Macri will be below 52.0% in the end. But still a nice win.
Why is Cordoba so right-wing ?

UCR historically is very strong in Cordoba province, they only lose province after forming Alliance. And De La Sota have a youth feud with Zanini (Scioli's running-mate).
In San Luis, Rodriguez Sáa's home province, Macri is gaining by 2-to-1.
But this a face-saving defeat for Scioli, as it means that he was defeated by a closer-than-expected margin and that he can be one of leaders to rebuild Peronism. And Cristina will be strong for 2019.