Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Lotuslander]

Since we've been talking about potential leadership candidates, does any one have any ideas who will run to be Elizabeth May's eventual successor?

If Jo-Ann Roberts wins Victoria, she'll be a contender for the Green leadership.

Very little chance of that. i hear Murray Rankin is leading her by a 2 to 1 margin

Funny. I hear the exact opposite!

In fact, the 3 most likely Green seats are all in the Greater Victoria area:

1. SGI - May's seat;
2. Victoria - NDP/Green battle;
3. ESS - NDP/Green battle;

Today Elections Canada released their advanced poll numbers and those 3 seats had the HIGHEST advanced turnout in BC. As a matter of fact, Victoria had the 3RD HIGHEST advanced turnout across Canada!!!

The Conservatives are not even relevant in those ridings (including ESS).

Reminds me of the November 2014 Victoria municipal election when incumbent mayor Dean Fortin was considered a shoe-in for re-election. Had major NDP/organized labour backing. And had one of the highest popular vote shares as mayor in the previous 2011 mayoral election.

BTW, big-city mayors are very tough to dislodge in BC.

Victoria mayor Fortin had several opponents and it was all but a foregone conclusion that it would be a slam dunk for him. But what happened? The Green-backed candidate, Lisa Helps, was assisted by a massive army of Green supporters with their GOTV campaign. And Lisa Helps won the Victoria mayoral chair!!!

Nope. Sorry. The fact that the advance voter turnout in Victoria is the 3rd highest in Canada leads me to believe that the Green political machine is driving voter turnout. BTW, Greens take the riding on election day based upon other more material "on the ground" info. No doubt now.

[Holmes]

How about we name names instead of just saying "I hear x is up" or "turnout is big so somehow that helps the Greens".

[136or142]

Possibly. If there's one thing left that can swing large numbers of votes it's major newspaper endorsements. Any idea when the G&M is going to drop theirs?

I think hardly anybody is swayed by newspaper endorsements these days.

Does anybody think that there were some voters who went into the advanced polls planning to vote Conservative but got so annoyed by the long lineups that they ended up voting for a different party?

[DC Al Fine]

Possibly. If there's one thing left that can swing large numbers of votes it's major newspaper endorsements. Any idea when the G&M is going to drop theirs?

I think hardly anybody is swayed by newspaper endorsements these days.

Does anybody think that there were some voters who went into the advanced polls planning to vote Conservative but got so annoyed by the long lineups that they ended up voting for a different party?

Its odd to hear these stories of lineups. As I noted on a previous page, it was a total dead zone when my wife and I went to vote Monday. We were the only ones there.

[cp]

I suppose it depends on where you live. The cutbacks the Tories made to Elections Canada are probably going to hit hardest in the highest-density areas.

Daily Nanos has 37.1/29.4/23.7

Libs now within one point of the NDP in Quebec and ahead by nearly 17 (!) points in Ontario.

[136or142]

Possibly. If there's one thing left that can swing large numbers of votes it's major newspaper endorsements. Any idea when the G&M is going to drop theirs?

I think hardly anybody is swayed by newspaper endorsements these days.

Does anybody think that there were some voters who went into the advanced polls planning to vote Conservative but got so annoyed by the long lineups that they ended up voting for a different party?

Its odd to hear these stories of lineups. As I noted on a previous page, it was a total dead zone when my wife and I went to vote Monday. We were the only ones there.

Given the total number of people who voted and the problems with Elections Canada this time around that made it less prepared than for even the number of people who voted in 2011, I have no doubt at all that these stories were more than just anecdotes or isolated incidents.

The main problems were twofold:
1.I don't believe Elections Canada actually cut back on staffing.  There is a set number of people required for each polling station and the same number of people as in 2011 were likely hired.  Also, the idea of increasing the number of polling stations or hiring additional staff were clearly non starters.  It would be impossible to rent additional space and by the time the new staff were hired, the advanced voting would be over.

The problem with the cuts to funding were that the staff weren't adequately trained, which increased the time it took for them to deal with each voter.  Apparently quite a number of those employed believed the voting cards were mandatory (they aren't) and many were thoroughly confused as to what counted as acceptable I.D.

2.Point one hints at the second point: the changes made to voting requirements by the Orwellian named Fair Elections Act that completely confused a lot of voters and a good deal of the hired election workers.  

It would be completely appropriate for those who planned to vote Conservative to change their minds while their blood pressure rose as they waited in line to vote.  I don't know if the Conservatives did these things intentionally to make it harder for Canadians in general to vote (as opposed to the targeted groups in the UnFair Elections Act), but it was, at best, an obvious unintended consequence of their legislation.

[136or142]

I suppose it depends on where you live. The cutbacks the Tories made to Elections Canada are probably going to hit hardest in the highest-density areas.

Daily Nanos has 37.1/29.4/23.7

Libs now within one point of the NDP in Quebec and ahead by nearly 17 (!) points in Ontario.

Apparently Nanos has the best track record on any polling firm on Canadian Federal elections.  That said, a polling firm can be very accurate in one election, and then be way off in another election, with no malice intended.

If these numbers are accurate, I'd say the Liberals are likely on the cusp of a majority government (which the head of Mainstreet Technologies tweeted a day ago that he now expects.)  This is especially the case if those voting strategically are targeted enough to focus especially on Conservative M.Ps.  The best case of this targeting (not the strategic voting) was the U.K election in 1997 when Tory ridings saw a greater reduction in that party's share of the vote than in the non Tory held ridings.

We'll see if the resignation of the Liberal Party campaign co-chair has any impact.  For those who believe the CBC is anti Conservative, that was the top story on their radio news broadcast at 10:00 PT and, for all that I know, may have been their top story for much of the evening.  

I personally think that this story has broken too late, and the Liberal Party in a roundabout fashion dealt with it too quickly for it to have much impact.  It may halt Liberal momentum though, especially in Quebec, for a day or two.

I think there are also too many other negative stories around for nearly all voters, except for the partisan Conservatives to focus too much on this.  In addition to the advanced polling problems and the evidence they were partly caused by Conservative cutbacks and legislation, they have the issue of their dishonest ethnic voter advertisements they are using in the Toronto and Vancouver regions and the general idiocy of Harper's use of the 'cash register' sound effect as well as the fact that, it to, is based on lies.  Oh, and finally there is the 'tough on crime and illegal drugs' party embracing admitted crack user Rob Ford.  Cocaine, it's a hell of a drug, except, I guess, unless you're planning to have sex with sheep.

For the NDP, many voters are likely to conclude that their claim that they are closer to forming government because they need to win less (additional) seats than the Liberals is an insult to their intelligence, and the repetition of this claim is likely backfiring on them.

[cp]

We'll see if the resignation of the Liberal Party campaign co-chair has any impact.  For those who believe the CBC is anti Conservative, that was the top story on their radio news broadcast at 10:00 PT and, for all that I know, may have been their top story for much of the evening. 

I personally think that this story has broken too late, and the Liberal Party in a roundabout fashion dealt with it too quickly for it to have much impact.  It may halt Liberal momentum though, especially in Quebec, for a day or two.

Yes, it's a bit late in the day for something like this to resonate widely, though not impossible. Perhaps a more telling observation is how quickly the Liberal campaign reacted to the negative news. They dispatched the co-chair immediately and issued the requisite stern-yet-contrite sounding statement within hours. Whether or not that undoes the damage is anyone's guess, but it's a sign that the Liberal campaign is pretty agile, even under duress.

[the506]

I think it's too much of an inside Ottawa story for it to have much impact. At least most Canadians know who Mike Duffy is. I had literally never heard the name Dan Gagnier until yesterday.

NDP partisans are sure going hard at it though. Not Tory partisans so much, they probably know the battle's been lost.

[Boston Bread]

Innovative: 38/30/22. Liberals up 20 in Ontario, potentially allowing a majority.

http://one-org.s3.amazonaws.com/us/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/14164737/ONECanadaPollResults.pdf

 A word of caution though; this pollster underestimated the NDP by 7 and overestimated the Liberals by 6 points in 2011, one of the worst pollster performances that election.

[lilTommy]

I think its been mentioned, EKOS has the NDP up almost 4% Liberals/CPC down but not much

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/liberals-maintain-lead-over-conservatives/

NDP - Lead QUE by 12 points, BC by 4. Second at 35% in SASK (small numbers, MAN shows 2% so probably not at all accurate, SASK seems high but not way off like MAN)
LPC - BIG lead in Atlantic, 39 point lead over NDP 20%, big lead in ON (NDP at 20% again, still seems low), second in BC and QUE

[King of Kensington]

So will Harper receive a lower % of the vote than Hudak in Ontario?  It's still hard for me to imagine the Tories going below 30%.

[2952-0-0]

If he goes ahead with the officially-not-a-rally with the Fords, sure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't overanalyse regional subsamples comrades

[King of Kensington]

Sikh group sees right through Harper's attempt to appeal to "ethnic" voters

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/sikh-group-offended-by-conservative-anti-trudeau-ads-1.3271668

[DC Al Fine]

Elections Canada released advanced polling numbers by riding.

There doesn't seem to be any particularly partisan correlation to it. Worst results after adjusting for population size were either large rural ridings or blighted urban ones (e.g. Souris-Moose Mountain, Hamilton Centre). Best results were in wealthier ridings or traditionally high turnout regions (e.g. Greater Victoria, PEI)

[DC Al Fine]

Also, I just realized there is a place in Saskatchewan called Moose Mountain. Unless there's some hilly part of Saskatchewan I don't know about, that has got to be one of the worst misnomers in the country.

[Thomas D]

If the Conservatives hand Justin Trudeau a majority because they went too far with their alienating, xenophobic rhetoric, which seems possible if trends hold, I'll be so, so pissed.

Once again, it is much, much, *much* too early to be making these kinds of predictions!

That said, that particular scenario if it came true would be, in my estimation, rather poetic justice.

I disagree, actually. The anti-Harper sentiment is strong, and if it becomes clear which party the progressives should coalesce behind (and in this case, it's evidently going to be the Liberal Party), the movement of voters, en masse, from one leftist camp to the other could be staggering. I would not be surprised to see the NDP at 20% and the Liberals at 40% in a week and a half.

Close.

[RogueBeaver]

Tory white flag about halfway up the pole. I remember Team Martin doing the same slightly earlier in '06.

[DC Al Fine]

Daily EKOS

33.5-32.6-22.9

If this keeps up, EKOS will look either very good or really bad on Oct. 20. Regional subs are funny as always.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Looks like the jig is up for the Tories: Lynton Crosby's jumping ship at the home stretch.
http://thinkpol.ca/2015/10/15/lynton-crosby-abandons-harper/

[Phony Moderate]

Looks like the jig is up for the Tories: Lynton Crosby's jumping ship at the home stretch.
http://thinkpol.ca/2015/10/15/lynton-crosby-abandons-harper/

What a cowardly little sh**t.

[136or142]

We'll see if the resignation of the Liberal Party campaign co-chair has any impact.  For those who believe the CBC is anti Conservative, that was the top story on their radio news broadcast at 10:00 PT and, for all that I know, may have been their top story for much of the evening.  

I personally think that this story has broken too late, and the Liberal Party in a roundabout fashion dealt with it too quickly for it to have much impact.  It may halt Liberal momentum though, especially in Quebec, for a day or two.

Yes, it's a bit late in the day for something like this to resonate widely, though not impossible. Perhaps a more telling observation is how quickly the Liberal campaign reacted to the negative news. They dispatched the co-chair immediately and issued the requisite stern-yet-contrite sounding statement within hours. Whether or not that undoes the damage is anyone's guess, but it's a sign that the Liberal campaign is pretty agile, even under duress.

For what it's worth Dan Gagnier resigned himself  (under pressure?).  The Liberal Party initially defended him and even after he resigned called the attacks on him a 'smear.'  That said, I doubt Justin Trudeau himself had anything to do with the Liberal Party officials who initially defended their boss.  Justin Trudeau should make it clear the people behind that decision to defend him will play no role in a Liberal government.  

I think we'll get an early indication of how sincere Justin Trudeau is to running a clean administration by whether Lawrence McCauley and Wayne Easter of P.E.I, Sukh Dhaliwal of B.C and maybe Judy Sgro of Ontario get into the cabinet. If any of them do, Justin Trudeau could be a big let down.  I'd mention Joe Peschisolido as well, but I'm sure he's not considered cabinet material by anybody's definition.  

I suspect in P.E.I though that Sean Murphy is that province's designated cabinet minister.

[RogueBeaver]

Justin said Gagnier will play no part in Gritdom for the long-term future. Den Tandt quotes Grit sources as saying Justin didn't know about the letter beforehand and will make an example of anyone guilty of such lapses.

[DC Al Fine]

More riding polls for Quebec.

Jonquiere
33-24-20-19

Lac St. Jean
35-30-17-16