France 2012: Official Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hollande 27-25 in Loire,

Which is an extremely encouraging result, of course.

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Indeed. Though it could be argued that the problem there is the great influx of French people (and obviously White Algerians).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why are the rural areas of France so left-wing?

Which ones?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hollande's constituency is in the Corrèze department. The Poison Dwarf is very much an urban politician and can't help but come across as such (whenever he tries not to be so, the result is but a confirmation).

But almost all French departments have a massive rural element.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of note, because it came so early that we missed it, Hollande carried Belfort.

And a rather massive network of small cities too, but not necessarily close from each other, then we can't really speak of urbanized area, to sum it up France might have one of the lowest (if not the lowest?) urban density of Europe.

And has always been... different... in terms of so many basic demographic factors.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Jesus Christ people, come on. You're describing voting patterns at a grade 3 level. My blog explains in with length, but "rural France" has never been homogeneous despite what so many idiots seem to think since the 1870s. Rural France has never been as a whole some massive right-wing strongholds. The DemSocs did best in rural areas in 1849, for starters. Religion or lack thereof, land ownership, social class and political tradition remains the best explanation of voting patterns in most of rural France. It might be appealing to say all rural areas are right-wing, but then the Ariege and Creuse must have some huge urban areas!

Ah, I was wondering how long it would take you to raise to what might almost have been bait.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Poison Dwarf carries Lyon by a tad less than 700 votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Le Parisien is reporting Paris: Hollande 34.8%; Sarkozy 32.2%; Melanchon 11.1%; Bayrou 9.3%; Le Pen 6.2%; Jolly 4.2%

lolpoisondwarf

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And here we are...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a link to the constituency results?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways...

What's the difference between A, B, and C?

I don't have the book in front of me at the moment, but something like:

A - Farming households, B - Rural households generally, C - Urban households.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, then. Context and all that.

Hollande polled 28.6%. This is the highest for a PS candidate since Mitterrand's 34.1% in 1988 and is the second highest (again, behind 1988) for a PS/SFIO/Etc candidate when there's been hard left competition on the ballot. It is also the highest for a challenging candidate since Mitterrand in 1974 (when he polled 43.2%, with the assistance of the Commies).

Sarkozy polled 27.2%. This is the second lowest ever polled by an incumbent (Chirac only managed his usual fifth of the poll in 2002). The complexities of the French Right make further comparisons a little tricky. Still, it's notable that the combined score of Sarkozy and Bayrou (36.3%) is about the same as the combined score of Chirac and Barre in 1988 (36.5)%. This is not especially encouraging for the Poison Dwarf for obvious reasons.

Le Pen polled 17.9%. As has been extensively reported, this is the FN's highest ever total in a Presidential election. The increase on 2007 is huge, needless to say. The difference between 2012 and 2002 is less stunning (at 1.04%) than initial exit polls indicated, though pointing that out feels like straw-clutching.

Mélenchon polled 11.1%. While this was not as high as shown by the polls, it is still the best Communist/Fellow Traveller result since Marchais took 15.3% in 1981. Together, Le Pen and Mélenchon polled 29%, which is a massive anti-system vote no matter how you cut it. This is also the first time that a 'Communist' candidate has finished above the designative 'Centrist' candidate of record. Seriously.

Bayrou polled 9.1%. This is (just about) less than half of what he polled in 2007, but still higher than he managed in 2002 (6.8%). Still, it's the second lowest total ever polled by the designated 'Centrist' candidate.

Joly polled 2.3%. This is on the low side for Green Presidential candidates, but higher than Voynet in 2007.

There were other candidates as well, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lolvendee

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm having problems accessing Le Monde on my computer; any useful alternatives?  (Oh, and anything with scaleable maps of communes?)

There is, inevitably, google: http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results

And also the official site here: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/PR2012/index.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How about this one: http://www.publicsenat.fr/lcp/politique/carte-des-elections-presidentielles

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Currently working on some pretty candidate maps. Not sure when they'll be up, mind.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unless there's credible evidence of a consistent (and meaningful!) gender gap, 'tis best to ignore poll breakdowns that touch on the matter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's something really quite old school about the Midi focus of Mélenchon's support, isn't there? Even if not exactly in terms of details.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I do so love the utterly predictable geographical patterns wrt French voters on the north bank of the Mor Breizh.

Also: does anyone have a link to constituency results for the mainland?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What? These are French nationals voting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways...

There's something really quite old school about the Midi focus of Mélenchon's support, isn't there? Even if not exactly in terms of details.

...thoughts?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Avignon?!!!

Anyways, a mystery noticed on the night that do need some addressing: does anyone have any idea what the hell happened in Haute-Loire?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think its always been to the left of its surrounds, but the sore thumb effect is a little startling.