Australia General Discussion

[morgieb]

Apparently Tony Abbott isn't doing a press conference any more but instead has gotten a couple of cameras from Channel 9 into his office. Interesting.

[morgieb]

Now Abbott's dropped the GP co-payment policy. Running scared.

[morgieb]

The question now is how long does Abbott last now? Six weeks? Three months? Six months? This can't continue indefinitely.

He'll get turfed in between April and June IMO.

[morgieb]

George W. Abbott

[morgieb]

Labor back to "only" 53-47. Rogue? Or a potential rally around the flag effect with the upcoming executions?

[morgieb]

The new Fairfax/Ipsos shows remarkable movement to the Coalition, with Labor ahead on 51-49, a swing of 3 points to the Coalition. On respondent allocated preferences, it's 52-48. Primary votes are 42-36-12.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/01/fairfax-ipsos-51-49-to-labor-2/

It's f'ing bonkers. I doubt you'll see much more improvement since the Libs don't have the balls to dump Abbott... noting that Abbott is still behind as preferred PM and while Shorten is net 0, Abbott remains at -30. I mean the 57-43's were never likely to hold, but there's no explicable reason for such a shift. I genuinely think a lot of people had already factored a leadership change into the mix. Mind you, it should be noted that it appears Ipsos has about a 1.5-2% pro-LNP house effect.

There was a great line about the Liberal leadership, and how they handle it like a bunch of 12 year old girls going after a spider with a stick.

Yeah, I'm thinking something like this for the sudden movement back to the Coalition. Apparently the polls narrowed when Rudd challenged Gillard for the leadership.

If Abbott survives then we'll start seeing 55-45's again.

[morgieb]

Why has no-one created a minor right-wing party that isn't an utter joke?

[morgieb]

Vale Fraser. Had no idea he was even unwell.

While I didn't like how he became PM, the Liberal party desperately need more people like him. RIP.

[morgieb]

Newspoll says 51-49.

Get off the drugs.

[morgieb]

Beautiful as always, Homely!

Also, there are serious allegations of domestic abuse against Labor MP Billy Gordon in Queensland

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lnp-would-be-ready-for-cook-byelection-springborg-20150328-1m9uif.html

If there is a by-election and the LNP wins the seat, there would be a 43-43 tie on the floor of parliament and the ALP would lose its majority propped up by Wellington. Cook is usually a Labor seat, but it's still winnable for the LNP in the right circumstances, so you can't take anything for granted.

I think cases like this one and Craig Thomson in federal parliament a few years ago only prove that the ALP. needs to more seriously vet its candidates...

Meh, I don't see Labor seats flipping in a by-election where their majority is under threat unless Labor were quite unpopular....something I'm not necessarily seeing up there (could be wrong o/c).

It is a bit disturbing that sh**t like that wasn't discovered though......

[morgieb]

Ouch.

Yeah I'd try and go for another election.

[morgieb]

Idiotic ... who vets these guys?

My only guess (hope?) is that Labor didn't think it could win anyway so they took what they could get.

[morgieb]

So, Richie Benaud. Surely a bigger legend and icon than any politician down there (ever, that is)?

Probably, yeah.

As I said on another forum:

Anyone with any sort of interest to the game at all above the age of 10 will recognise the voice of Richie. He basically defined commentary. Never a cheerleader, just loved good cricket. The game is poorer for his loss. RIP.

[morgieb]

The only thing we can draw out of this is that it's unlikely Abbott will be rolled as long as the numbers continue to fluctuate like this and he gets a few 49-51's etc.

I'm not advocating for Shorten to be rolled yet, but if those numbers are true, it's quite clear that Rudd's reforms sort of missed the point. The reforms within the ALP should have been directed at the pre-selection level, reducing the influence of the factions and unions, while allowing the general membership to decide candidates on their own. I feel more comfortable with the membership deciding the parliamentary party, and the parliamentary party deciding the leadership.

Given that Shorten's win was largely down to the parliamentary party.....that's a bit odd to say that Rudd's reforms missed the point. Or am I missing something?

[morgieb]

Any particular reason for Shorten not doing so well in the approval stakes? I thought he was reasonably popular (or is any popularity on his part down to the fact that he's not Tony Abbott)?

The latter is more accurate, he was perceived as being popular because he wasn't Abbott.

I think Shorten's been seen as somewhat irrelevant and perhaps a bit of a hack. Also the OL is a bit of a dud job up until about a few months before the election.

[morgieb]

The Greens are just a bunch of young inner-city Liberals who don't understand how economics work.

wtf m8

[morgieb]

The Greens are just a bunch of young inner-city Liberals who don't understand how economics work.

wtf m8

Please see my second post. 

And just for reference: Economy over environmentalism: meet the new Greens scaring Labor.

I was joking. I'm a bit pissed off that you consider me a Liberal who doesn't understand economics though

[morgieb]

I know why Abbott has rebounded somewhat, but what's the main reason for Shorten's approvals plummenting? Was he just only popular because he wasn't Abbott?

[morgieb]

Out of sheer curiosity, does anyone know why Family First do particularly well in South Australia compared to other states?

Old, suburban protestants.

Do they exist in larger numbers in Adelaide or something? Or perhaps is it cause FF have a hold on the religious right vote that's more widely distributed in other states.

Adelaide is a bit older than other capital cities, yeah.

But also in WA and NSW CDP are the party of the Protestant right vote.

[morgieb]

The Killing Season is actually brilliant, hard to watch but so good.

So compelling ... Rudd looks like the smug **** he is.

The series actually rehabilitated his reputation somewhat I think. Although Gillard continues to come off as a far better individual than Rudd, it's quite clear he was the wronged party (by FAR) in the 2010 coup.

Episode 1 made Rudd look good, Episode 2 made him look distracted and Episode 3 made him look bitter and twisted and incapable of accepting ANY blame for his mistakes.

Episode 3 did produce one of the better zingers from Rudd's mouth tbf.

[morgieb]

Thank you Bronwyn Bishop.