Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

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Optimistically? A new generation of Albertans (Millennials, internal migrants) are finally a large enough bloc to change things. Nenshi's campaign showed them a breakthrough was possible and the Redford resignation/Prentice coronation combined with the oil shock has suddenly made people consider making a genuine change.

Pessimistically? It's a fluke. A brief moment where the PC's had a bad week and a lot of polls were taken.

I think the second option is more realistic but I'd be lying if I said I didn't think there was just a little something that reminded me of what happened in Quebec in late April 2011.

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I didn't want to consider the possibility at the beginning of the campaign because I figured I'd just end up disappointed, but now it looks like the NDP has a real chance of winning and may even be favored. How would an NDP victory affect the coming federal campaign? Would the NDP see a boost after toppling a longstanding government in the most conservative province? Would it have any affect on Trudeau?

Really hard to say. An NDP win might supply the federal NDP with campaign infrastructure that would be invaluable come October, but it also might free up a lot of erstwhile PC candidates and staffers who would migrate to the federal Tories.

The Liberals (federal and provincial) have been moribund in the province for so long that the outcome likely won't affect them one way or another. The only question with them is: how strong of a pull (or a drag) will Trudeau be on their fortunes generally?

I doubt a PC loss would translate into any major shift in support for the federal Tories. The federal Tories are pretty deeply entrenched in Alberta and their opponents (unlike on the provincial level) lack deep roots in the province. In the federal context, the Tories are still kind of like the home team so people are unlikely to abandon them for parties that are more centred on eastern Canada, specifically Quebec.

One consequence of an NDP victory, however, might be a serious moment of reflection/reckoning for conservative ideologues. With the NDP ruling the province that's been the taproot of Canadian conservatism there might be some serious questions as to what the future of that movement can plausibly be.

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Agreed. Perhaps the sudden appearance of the invective in this thread, however, is a sign that things in Alberta have got anti-NDP folk running scared?

Whatever the motivation, the pipeline issue seems more like a feinting maneuver than anything else. The major issue of the campaign has been the PC-proposed budget. It seems unlikely that a single statement is going to change that 10 days out.

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Yeah, I wanted to say that a major issue in the campaign was 'anti-incumbency' or 'corruption' or 'a throw the bums out mentality' but I didn't want to be too hacky, or at least project my own prejudices onto the general public. Guess I over-corrected!

Having now said that, I've noticed a trend in the comments for almost all the articles on the AB election: denouncements of the NDP as terrible/disastrous/satanic are *immediately* followed - in the same comment - by something along the lines of 'but the PCs have still got to go'. Interesting times.

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Indeed. If anything, abandoning green policies as soon as they had a whiff of power would probably harm the NDP more (by making their core supporters, the ones they need motivated in the home stretch, start to doubt themselves).

Having spoken to my (admittedly few) Albertan contacts the impression is that the NDP rise is real but not expected to take them to government. Either they'll come up short to Wildrose or there will be a last minute swing to the PC's a la 2012. That said, this doesn't seem to come from a belief that the NDP is *incapable* of winning enough votes, just that people are weary of underestimating the PCs.

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For those just joining the conversation in the exciting final week:

Tim Harper wrote an article about the state of the race in Alberta.

Meanwhile, the CBC wrote a much better article on the same.

On a separate note, when will the major papers in the province release their endorsements? Do they tend to do that for Alberta elections?

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My completely-off-the-top-of-my-head guess at where the parties currently stand is this:

NDP 35%, WR 30%, PC 25%, Lib 5%, Oth 5%

When I put the numbers into my magical seat projection spreadsheet, I come up with this:

NDP 42, WR 41, PC 4

How many minutes would it take for Brian Jean to reassess his opinion of floor-crossers?

Depends on whether Notley gets to two of the rump PCs first

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Today there will be a bunch of polls released. It's already begun, and it is only 6 AM in Alberta

Leger:

NDP: 38
PC: 30
WRP: 24
ALP: 6
AP: 1
Oth: 1

Return On Insight:

NDP: 38
PC: 24
WRP: 21
ALP: 10
AP: 4


Looks like the PCs are moving into second place. This could be bad news for the NDP if soft Wildrose voters go PC at the last minute. I know some will tell us their 2nd vote would be for the NDP, but I think the 2nd vote of the soft WRP voters is more likely to be PC voters. More committed Wildrosers will say their 2nd preference would be NDP I think.

Wow. If the right-wingers weren't panicking before they probably will be now!

That said, I'm not convinced that tactical voting on the right will save the PCs this time. WRP supporters in particular, and their raison d'etre generally, is based on specifically rejecting the PCs brand of politics and their party. Not that it would be counted, but I'd wager a WRP voter's second option would be to stay home and not vote rather than vote PC.

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Predictably, and yet incredibly, the Globe endorses the PCs

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorials/for-alberta-jim-prentice-is-the-best-choice/article24211771/

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Carter says his PC sources are saying they're still confident of a majority. Globe's Justin Giovanetti says same, Edmonton Journal's Graham Thomson hints.

I'm really perplexed about this. Do they know something we don't (the polls really *are* completely wrong; their GOTV is insanely good) or is it just whistling past the graveyard?

This being Alberta I can't shake the feeling that the NDP will end up coming up short. However, if they end up pulling it off the meltdown in the PC HQ will be something to behold.

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Seat Prediction:

NDP: 56
Wildrose: 25
PC: 4
Liberal: 1
Alberta Party: 1

Vote Share:

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 27%
PC: 18%
Liberal: 4%
Alberta Party: 4%
Others: 3%

Man, I hope I'm right.

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Something interesting I noticed in the Forum poll: according to the age breakdowns, the PCs are most popular with seniors (65+), Wildrose with Gen Xers (35-44), and the NDP with Millennials (25-34).

If there's anything to the narrative about generational/demographic shifts fueling this election, these numbers might indicate such a shift is not so straightforward or coherent as it may seem.

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There's no question they've got the money, the bodies, and the training for a great ground game, but will it be enough?

And more interestingly, will it do anything at all?

I remember during Mulcair's 2007 by-election win in Outremont Liberals belatedly pouring into the riding to get their supporters out to the polls only to find out that most of them had already decided to vote NDP!

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"I haven't done the math yet but [1 minute of cheering] we've elected the most women ever."

yaaassss

Love it! Even better, from the looks of it (skip to 3:45) she didn't even mean it as a zinger. She just sort of stumbled into the joke by accident!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJJ4kD7xVLs


For those hungry for a bit of schadenfreude, here's Prentice's concession speech:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NafLs1RR4A0

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Apropos of nothing, with this unexpected win the number of conservative led governments in Canada is down to 4: BC, NL, Saskatchewan, and federally.

If the current polling holds it could be down to 2 by the end of the year.

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I know. I figured I'd count them as conservative for the purposes of left vs right dichotomy, though.