Colombia 2010

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Presidential election on May 30, after congressional elections on March 14. The Constitutional Court struck down an amendment which would have allowed Uribe to run for re-election.

Uribista parties (the personalist Partido de la U, Conservatives, the far-right paramilitary-liked PIN, and the Cambio Radical) dominated the congressional elections by an even larger margin than in 2006. The left-wing opposition Polo Democratico Alternativo did especially poorly, though the Liberals didn't do superb either.

Juan Manuel Santos, former defense minister, is the Partido de la U's candidate, though he doesn't have Uribe's official backing (yet). Is probably the closest to Uribe on issues and probably the one with the toughest known stance on the FARC. However, the uribista vote is divided between Santos, Noemí Sanín (the Conservative candidate, who is a very close supporter of Uribe - though she opposed him in 2002) and Germán Vargas Lleras (of the Cambio Radical outfit, a right-wing party likely linked to paramilitaries). The opposition is divided between Senator Gustavo Petro of the Polo Democratico Alternativo and Liberal candidate Rafael Pardo (a former Uribe ally turned opponent).

A 'third' front around the newly-founded Green Party (which claims to be largely 'post-Uribist') nominated well-known philosopher and former Bogota mayor Antanas Mockus. The Greenies include a few former Bogota mayors and got around 5% of the vote in the Senate election electing 5 Senators.

Here's the latest poll:

Juan Manuel Santos (Uribist) 36%
Noemí Sanín (Conservative) 17%
Antanas Mockus (Greenies) 9%
Germán Vargas Lleras (CR) 8%
Gustavo Petro (PDA) 6%
Sergio Fajardo (Ind.) 5%
Rafael Pardo (Liberal) 4%
Jairo Enrique Calderón (AL) 1%
Other / Blank vote 4%
Undecided 11%

Santos beats Sanín 44-30 in a runoff and beats Mockus 49-29 in a runoff.

[Хahar 🤔]

Why is Pardo doing so bad? The Liberals performed decently at the legislative elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why is Pardo doing so bad? The Liberals performed decently at the legislative elections.

Maybe the Liberals are still divided over Uribe, or perhaps the Green candidate has appeal to them. Though perhaps there's no need for much explanation, as the Liberals are really just a loose confederation of clientelists.

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Why is Pardo doing so bad? The Liberals performed decently at the legislative elections.

Maybe the Liberals are still divided over Uribe, or perhaps the Green candidate has appeal to them. Though perhaps there's no need for much explanation, as the Liberals are really just a loose confederation of clientelists.

And given that Pardo is a former Uribist, maybe the anti-Uribist Liberals prefer Petro or Mockus.

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Mockus-mentum!

Juan Manuel Santos (Uribist) 29.5%
Antanas Mockus (Greenies) 24.8%
Noemí Sanín (Conservative) 16.4%
Germán Vargas Lleras (CR) 3%
Gustavo Petro (PDA) 3.1%
Rafael Pardo (Liberal) 5.2%
Undecided/other 18%

[Tender Branson]

Mockus-mentum!

Juan Manuel Santos (Uribist) 29.5%
Antanas Mockus (Greenies) 24.8%
Noemí Sanín (Conservative) 16.4%
Germán Vargas Lleras (CR) 3%
Gustavo Petro (PDA) 3.1%
Rafael Pardo (Liberal) 5.2%
Undecided/other 18%

After reading a bit more about him, Mockus seems to be a huge FF.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

 how do the parties differ in their response to FARC? what are the other major issues in this election?

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how do the parties differ in their response to FARC? what are the other major issues in this election?

As said before, the Uribist Party and Conservatives are largely the same on their hard-line policy against the FARC, the PNI and CR are criminal outfits linked to right-wing paramilitaries, the Liberals have favoured negotiations while in office and probably still do while the PDA are the one with the softest line. The Greenies seem somewhere in between, though Uribe has called them soft.

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Mockus-mentum 2!

Juan Manuel Santos (Uribist) 34%
Antanas Mockus (Greenies) 34%
Noemí Sanín (Conservative) 12%
Gustavo Petro (PDA) 5%
Rafael Pardo (Liberal) 5%
Germán Vargas Lleras (CR) 4%
Jaime Araujo 1%
blank 2%
other/undecided 3%

Antanas Mockus (Greenies) 50%
Juan Manuel Santos (Uribist) 44%
blank 3%
NOTA 1%
undecided 2%

It would be amazing if Colombia was the first country to elect a head of state from a Green Party.

[Edu]

It would be amazing if Colombia was the first country to elect a head of state from a Green Party.

And with such a cool name too

Aurelijus Rutenis Antanas Mockus Šivickas

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It would be amazing if Colombia was the first country to elect a head of state from a Green Party.

And with such a cool name too

Aurelijus Rutenis Antanas Mockus Šivickas

Yeah, his parents are apparently Lithuanian immigrants.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is Antanas a Lithuanian name? I've noticed that Latin America has always had a lot of politicians with a foreign last name and a Spanish first name.

[Edu]

When i search Antanas in Wikipedia, most of the results are Lithuanian people so i guess it is

[Hash]

Well, it certainly isn't a Spanish name. Is Mockus also traditionally Spanish either?

[ag]

Obviously, this is a Lithuanian name.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antanas_Smetona
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darius_Mockus

Why such a shock? There are lots of Latin Americans with not very Spanish names

One of my favorites is this Mexican http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nora_Volkow

BTW, who'd like to make into a real "scandal": horror of horrors, a real link betweenthe Bushies, Mexicans and Trotsky himself

But then, of course, we can recall, for instance,
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdal%C3%A1_Bucaram

[Хahar 🤔]

Abdalá has a Hitler moustache!

[Edu]

Why such a shock? There are lots of Latin Americans with not very Spanish names

Who's shocked?

LOL, I remember Menem meeting with Bucaram and playing a football match or something a few weeks after he was ousted in 97

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

i'm guessing this ad doesn't look quite as freaky to Colombians as it would to the USA?

www.antanasmockus.com

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Probably not if only for the reason that Mockus has always been a kind of weirdo, even as mayor. He dressed up as some superhero to fight graffiti and did several other outlandish things as mayor.

Colombia, like most of Latin America, is very Catholic and tends to be quite socially conservative. I don't suppose such an ad would be shocking, even for the centre-left, historically influenced by the Church's liberation theology.

[Edu]

Apparently that one is a campaign ad made by his supporters and sent by Email to the Mockus campaign. There's a whole collection of them. Obviously the Mockus campaing is proud of them since they put them up in their website

At least that's what the site says

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Well, Mockus now leads even in the first round.

Datexco, April 30

Antanas Mockus (Greenies) 38.7%
Juan Manuel Santos (Uribist) 26.7%
Noemí Sanín (Conservative) 9.8%
Germán Vargas Lleras (CR) 3.3%
Gustavo Petro (PDA) 2.9%
Rafael Pardo (Liberal) 2.3%
blank/other/undecided 16.3%

Antanas Mockus (Greenies) 41.5%
Juan Manuel Santos (Uribist) 29%
blank/NOTA/undecided 29.5%

Centro Nacional de Consultoría, April 29

Antanas Mockus (Greenies) 39%
Juan Manuel Santos (Uribist) 34%
Noemí Sanín (Conservative) 11%
Gustavo Petro (PDA) 5%
Germán Vargas Lleras (CR) 4%
Rafael Pardo (Liberal) 3%
blank/other/undecided 4%

Antanas Mockus (Greenies) 53%
Juan Manuel Santos (Uribist) 42%
blank/NOTA/undecided 5%

So much for the theory that Santos would be a slam dunk to succeed Uribe.

[Verily]

Wow. I guess his antics really resonate. Good for Colombia that they're moving past that scumbag Uribe, but it's depressing that personality cult politics continues.

[Edu]

Good, hope it stays this way

[Barnes]

Enlighten me, why is the Green Party winning in Columbia?

[ag]

Enlighten me, why is the Green Party winning in Columbia?

Because Antanas Mockus, who is a very popular and capable politician, happens to be their nominee.