Australia - 7 September 2013

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Wow.

I didn't recognize him at first... how time files!

[RogueBeaver]

Jowls aside, Costello looks pretty much the same now as he did then.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Dear lord, there actually was an MP named Howard Beale, the once Liberal representative for Parramatta.

[BigSkyBob]

BREAKING NEWS: Craig Thomson, Labor-turned-Independent member for Dobell, has been arrested for 149 fraud charges.

Read more here: http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=841104

It's as if Gilliard knew her government was about to fall, so set an election date as well into the future as possible.

[Platypus]

Not impossible, to be honest, but not probable.

[mattyman]

Headline from the Sydney Morning Herald:

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I wonder if these first few days of 'campaigning' will set the tone for this election? Could be a long painful seven months for the ALP.

[Platypus]

I think the timing of this was to push an even worse story down the list...and it succeeded. If it was going to happen anyway, might as well be used to trump Craig Thomson.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Headline from the Sydney Morning Herald:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wonder if these first few days of 'campaigning' will set the tone for this election? Could be a long painful seven months for the ALP.

It's such a hysterical response... election years tend to see more retirements and re-shuffles.

[RogueBeaver]

True. Unless this becomes a stampede for the exits, which I doubt. How many Laborites quit in '96 or Liberals in '07?

[Talleyrand]

There were more Laborites in 1996 and Liberals in 2007 available to quit than there are Laborites right now, but was there a similar sense of imminent doom at this point in those cycles?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There were more Laborites in 1996 and Liberals in 2007 available to quit than there are Laborites right now, but was there a similar sense of imminent doom at this point in those cycles?

Uh... yeah.

The polling is actually closer this year than this point before 1996 and 2007. I say anyone expecting a 1996-2007-like result is probably in for a disappointment.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

True. Unless this becomes a stampede for the exits, which I doubt. How many Laborites quit in '96 or Liberals in '07?

16 Coalition members (total for both houses) retired in 2007, and 14 Labor members retired in 1996, 15 if you count Labor-turned Independent Senator John Devereux.

EDIT: Currently, 8 Labor members (total for both houses) are retiring at this year's poll.

[RogueBeaver]

I would say 2001 or 2004 at this point.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm on my phone, so hopefully others will put this down... first Newspoll is uuuuuugly for the Government. Of course, election year polling notwithstanding.

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm on my phone, so hopefully others will put this down... first Newspoll is uuuuuugly for the Government.

Outlier is outlier.

[Hifly]

Outlier is outlier.

That doesn't even make sense. And what makes you sure it is an outlier? The government has been receiving very bad press lately.

[Knives]

Yeah it's been a sh**t week for them.

[RogueBeaver]

Anyone have the #?

[Hifly]

Yeah it's been a sh**t week for them.

Which probably makes you pretty pissed since you're a Labor Left hack.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah it's been a sh**t week for them.

Which probably makes you pretty pissed since you're a Labor Left hack.

Is that constructive?

Headlines: 56-44
ALP primary down 6, Coalition up 4
Gillard now only 2 points ahead of Abbott

But of course, that's the beauty of an 8 month campaign... you know, there's 8 months to go.

But again, election-year polling as we all know is like a pig's breakfast - there will likely be little consistency for the next 4-6 months.

[Hash]

Yeah it's been a sh**t week for them.

Which probably makes you pretty pissed since you're a Labor Left hack.

I have no clue who you are, but you should start being constructive and stop trolling like a 5-year old.

[Hifly]

Yeah it's been a sh**t week for them.

Which probably makes you pretty pissed since you're a Labor Left hack.

I have no clue who you are, but you should start being constructive and stop trolling like a 5-year old.

It was more constructive and more true than some of his previous comments.

[Hifly]

Meanwhile a Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun gives the Coalition a slightly less pungent lead of 54-46.
It would be interesting to see the state by state breakdown of these polls. Does Galaxy and Newspoll publish them?

I doubt the results of the Western Australian election next month (in which it is looking likely that Labor will get smashed), will provide any uplifting support for the government.

[Talleyrand]

Meanwhile a Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun gives the Coalition a slightly less pungent lead of 54-46.
It would be interesting to see the state by state breakdown of these polls. Does Galaxy and Newspoll publish them?

I doubt the results of the Western Australian election next month (in which it is looking likely that Labor will get smashed), will provide any uplifting support for the government.

Newspoll publishes their state by state breakdown every three months- I don't know about Galaxy.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ACT Opposition Leader is quitting to challenge Senator Gary Humphries for Liberal pre-selection for the second Senate seat in the ACT (the first guaranteed to go the ALP's Kate Lundy).

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/seselja-to-challenge-humphries-for-act-senate-seat-20130204-2dt5t.html