Australia - 7 September 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Anything that divides the right is good.

#praying4jules

What good does dividing the opposition do in Australia?

If a third party becomes strong enough, you can tip the balance. DLP preferences played a crucial role in the Coalition dynasty's success from '58 on and of course the Joh for Canberra train wreck ended Howard's chances in '87. Not that Palmer's remotely comparable to those 2.

[Talleyrand]

The Western Australian Labor Party Executive has just decided to drop openly gay senator Louise Pratt from the top of the Senate ticket and replace her with an anti-gay social conservative in Joe Bullock. If current polling holds up, Labor may struggle to get more than one senator elected from WA.

Clown show.

I can't believe I missed it, but that's disgusting. Labor (including Gillard) need to stop their social conservative pandering; it's been nothing but a hindrance for the party and makes them look like complete tools (which some of them are, obviously). I hope Pratt is reinstated to the top position and not bounced for some union shill.

[RogueBeaver]

They're trying anything in a doomed attempt to avert political death.

[Smid]

I read a really good op-ed the other day suggesting that this was Palmer upset that his political donations didn't buy him influence, and now trying to torpedo the Coalition. Since that is effectively another way of saying he was trying to bribe the Opposition, I wouldn't make a similar claim.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

As some of you probably know, Clive Palmer, Australian billionaire, has resurrected the United Australia Party (UAP), previously Australia's main conservative party from 1931-1945, and two Queensland state MPs have already joined.

They plan on running candidates in most seats, and their core policies can be found here:
http://unitedaustralia.org/policies/

Wow, that's absolutely useless. It's more than vague.

My guess is that they'll release more detailed and other policies closer to the date or over time, like Katter's Australian Party did, they started out with a few core policies as well.

[RogueBeaver]

What exactly was Palmer asking for to begin with?

[Knives]

The Western Australian Labor Party Executive has just decided to drop openly gay senator Louise Pratt from the top of the Senate ticket and replace her with an anti-gay social conservative in Joe Bullock. If current polling holds up, Labor may struggle to get more than one senator elected from WA.

Clown show.

I can't believe I missed it, but that's disgusting. Labor (including Gillard) need to stop their social conservative pandering; it's been nothing but a hindrance for the party and makes them look like complete tools (which some of them are, obviously). I hope Pratt is reinstated to the top position and not bounced for some union shill.

It's no surprise, most construction and industry unions are socially conservative.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

What exactly was Palmer asking for to begin with?

Quote from Professor Palmer himself on the day he founded his party:

He (Palmer) told Lateline that Australia needs a new party "to unite all Australians in a time of crisis to work together".

"I think we need to take away the game from professional politicians who say the same thing," he said.

"It doesn't matter whether it's Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard, they've got the same lobbyists influencing them, the same focus groups. We need to think about more what the people need."

Source:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-25/clive-palmer-to-go-ahead-with-political-party/4651998

In more recent news, rock singer Angry Anderson is contesting the seat of Thorsby for the Nationals. Shame he likely won't win though .

Source:
http://www.skynews.com.au/national/article.aspx?id=869261

[Хahar 🤔]

Anything that divides the right is good.

#praying4jules

What good does dividing the opposition do in Australia?

If a third party becomes strong enough, you can tip the balance. DLP preferences played a crucial role in the Coalition dynasty's success from '58 on and of course the Joh for Canberra train wreck ended Howard's chances in '87. Not that Palmer's remotely comparable to those 2.

The thing about the DLP was that it directed its preferences toward the Liberals and not Labor; it wasn't a case of a divided opposition so much as a large part of the opposition switching sides.

[morgieb]

My current predictions:

Adelaide - Narrow Labor hold, Liberals beat Labor on primary votes.
Aston - Liberal hold, likely to swing big.
Ballarat - Labor hold, potential for a large swing.
Banks - Liberal gain (Labor 71, LNP 74)
Barker - Liberal hold
Barton - Hard to say, looks very tight. I lean towards a Liberal gain (Labor 70, LNP 75)
Bass - Narrow Liberal gain (Labor 69, LNP 76)
Batman - Labor hold. Liberals finish 2nd on primary votes.
Bendigo - Hard to say. Narrow Labor hold, big swing due to a retiring member.
Bennelong - Liberal hold
Berowra - Liberal hold
Blair - Very hard to call. Labor hold...barely.
Blaxland - Labor hold
Bonner - Liberal hold
Bowman - Liberal hold
Boothby - Liberal hold, Southcott finally gets a swing towards him.
Braddon - Narrow Liberal gain (Labor 68, LNP 77)
Bradfield - Liberal hold
Brand - Narrow Labor hold, swing in WA is smaller and ALP somewhat held their own here at the state election.
Brisbane - Narrow Liberal hold. One of the few seats Labor has a hope of regaining.
Bruce - Would be very vulnerable if Brumby won in  2010, but too much of a stretch to see the ALP lose here. Narrow Labor hold.
Calare - National hold.
Calwell - Labor hold
Canberra - Labor hold.
Canning - Liberal hold - if Labor couldn't win this with MacTerinan, they can't win it now.
Capricornia - Will come down to Katter preferences. Remember the ALP still won state seats here even in 2012.
Casey - Liberal hold, expect it to swing large.
Charlton - Labor hold
Chifley - Labor hold
Chisholm - If Burke wasn't Speaker it'd be vulnerable, but for now it's a narrow Labor hold.
Cook - Liberal hold
Corangamite - Liberal gain (Labor 67, LNP 78)
Corio - Labor hold
Cowan - Liberal hold
Cowper - National hold
Cunningham - Labor hold
Curtin - Liberal hold

I'll do the rest at a later date. Comments and critique is appreciated.

[RogueBeaver]

PVO talks of 1975 redux (40-50 Lab seats, towards the lower end) as being "smart money": basically today's polls hold till E-Day. I trust him, but that seems a tad optimistic to me.

[Hifly]

Private Liberal polls in Chisholm and Bruce have shown that both will fall to the Libs with a massive swing-and after the swing Labor received against them in Lyndhurst I wouldn't be surprised if other seats in South East Melbourne are also at risk-an article in The Australian suggests even Holt is under threat.
I think what we will see is larger swings being concentrated in safer Labor seats, especially in Western Sydney and Tasmania. Language used by Sam Dastyari suggests that even Newcastle is definitely in play.

[Smid]

Yeah, I heard something about a bad poll for Labor in Newcastle. Don't know if it is rogue, though. Holt was close in 2004, certainly sensitive to cost of living pressures, such as a tax on electricity bills. Big margin, though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course very similar claims were made about many safe Coalition seats in 2007 and, for the most part...

[Hifly]

Of course very similar claims were made about many safe Coalition seats in 2007 and, for the most part...

I don't know about these but bear in mind that the difference in 2PP in 2007 is much less than the difference in 2PP expected at the election this year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I also remember what the polls looked like in 2007.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I also remember what the polls looked like in 2007.

Weren't Labour leading in polls in North Sydney and Wentworth at one point?

[Talleyrand]

PVO talks of 1975 redux (40-50 Lab seats, towards the lower end) as being "smart money": basically today's polls hold till E-Day. I trust him, but that seems a tad optimistic to me.

So the smart money is on around 45 Labor seats? I'm a pessimist, but even I doubt they'll fall that low. I expect the final margin to be around 54% for the coalition, a narrow tightening from what we're seeing now, but enough to allow Abbott to command a massive majority on the floor of the House.

[RogueBeaver]

Not that he'll be doing much with it, unlike Howard and even Fraser. One similarity is that Lab will fight tooth and nail against repeal, like they did against Howard's first-term agenda. So unless Abbott gets an exceedingly lucky roll of the Senate dice...

[Knives]

You really can't take the Lydnhurst result as much because there was no Lib candidate and Hung Vo stole a massive portion of the Asian vote.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

My current predictions:

Adelaide - Narrow Labor hold, Liberals beat Labor on primary votes.
Aston - Liberal hold, likely to swing big.
Ballarat - Labor hold, potential for a large swing.
Banks - Liberal gain (Labor 71, LNP 74)
Barker - Liberal hold
Barton - Hard to say, looks very tight. I lean towards a Liberal gain (Labor 70, LNP 75)
Bass - Narrow Liberal gain (Labor 69, LNP 76)
Batman - Labor hold. Liberals finish 2nd on primary votes.
Bendigo - Hard to say. Narrow Labor hold, big swing due to a retiring member.
Bennelong - Liberal hold
Berowra - Liberal hold
Blair - Very hard to call. Labor hold...barely.
Blaxland - Labor hold
Bonner - Liberal hold
Bowman - Liberal hold
Boothby - Liberal hold, Southcott finally gets a swing towards him.
Braddon - Narrow Liberal gain (Labor 68, LNP 77)
Bradfield - Liberal hold
Brand - Narrow Labor hold, swing in WA is smaller and ALP somewhat held their own here at the state election.
Brisbane - Narrow Liberal hold. One of the few seats Labor has a hope of regaining.
Bruce - Would be very vulnerable if Brumby won in  2010, but too much of a stretch to see the ALP lose here. Narrow Labor hold.
Calare - National hold.
Calwell - Labor hold
Canberra - Labor hold.
Canning - Liberal hold - if Labor couldn't win this with MacTerinan, they can't win it now.
Capricornia - Will come down to Katter preferences. Remember the ALP still won state seats here even in 2012.
Casey - Liberal hold, expect it to swing large.
Charlton - Labor hold
Chifley - Labor hold
Chisholm - If Burke wasn't Speaker it'd be vulnerable, but for now it's a narrow Labor hold.
Cook - Liberal hold
Corangamite - Liberal gain (Labor 67, LNP 78)
Corio - Labor hold
Cowan - Liberal hold
Cowper - National hold
Cunningham - Labor hold
Curtin - Liberal hold

I'll do the rest at a later date. Comments and critique is appreciated.

I agree with most of these, as you will see with my predictions, which I will post below. Looking forward to seeing the rest of your predictions!

[Smid]

Feel free to use the blank map in the gallery to post a colourful picturesque map of your predictions.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

NOTE: These predictions are very preliminary, and will be updated at a later date, final predictions on the 7th of September.

Current parliament: 71 ALP, 72 LNP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 5 IND

Adelaide (ALP 7.5%)
Kate Ellis is a prominent member of the government, although she was one of only two incumbents in South Australia to have a swing against her last time. Will depend on both the overall performance of the Liberals in SA, and Ellis’ performance as a minister.

Aston (LIB 0.7%)
Labor have done well in Victoria over the past two cycles, although I expect Aston to become safer for the Liberals.

Ballarat (ALP 11.7%)
Labor retain, unless there is a large swing in regional Victoria.

Banks (ALP 1.5%)
Although very marginal, Banks had a strong swing to the Liberals last time, which may be hard to top. Another key seat.

Barker (LIB 13.0%)
Liberal retain.

Barton (ALP 6.9%)
Normally a Labor stronghold, sitting MP Robert McClelland is retiring, possibly paving the way for an upset Liberal gain.

Bass (ALP 6.7%)
Given the strong movement away from Labor in Tasmania, Liberal gain.
Back to top

Batman (ALP 24.8%)
Labor retain.

Bendigo (ALP 9.4%)
Like Ballarat, the Liberals should only pick this up in the event of a large swing back to them in regional Victoria.

Bennelong (LIB 3.1%)
The Liberals should strengthen their hold here.

Berowra (LIB 16.2%)
Liberal retain.

Blair (ALP 4.2%)
At this stage, LNP gain, as Labor’s situation has worsened in Queensland since the last election, and doesn’t appear to be getting better.

Blaxland (ALP 12.2%)
Labor retain.

Bonner (LNP 2.8%)
Should become safer for the LNP.

Boothby (LIB 0.3%)
Although Andrew Southcott suffered a 2.2% swing against him last time, in addition to the last redistribution weakening his already slim hold on the seat, the last election was something of a high watermark for Labor in South Australia, so he should be returned here fairly easily.

Bowman (LNP 10.4%)
LNP retain.

Braddon (ALP 7.5%)
Liberal gain at this stage, if Labor remain unpopular in Tasmania.

Bradfield (LIB 18.2%)
Liberal retain.

Brand (ALP 3.3%)
Labor have always held this seat since its creation in 1984, although they have come close to losing it before, most notably in 1996. One to watch, although this would be significantly safer for Labor on the figures of the last state election.

Brisbane (LNP 1.1%)
Not a traditional conservative seat, an LNP member for this seat would normally be an anomaly. Given the anti-Labor climate in Queensland at the moment, I’d expect the LNP hold on this seat to become more secure.

Bruce (ALP 7.7%)
Likely Labor retain, barring a large swing.

Calare (NAT 10.7%)
National retain.

Calwell (ALP 20.0%)
Labor retain.

Canberra (ALP 9.2%)
Labor retain.

Canning (LIB 2.2%)
Liberal retain, probably with an increased majority.

Capricornia (ALP 3.7%)
One to watch, given the sitting member is retiring and the still-grim climate for Labor in Queensland.

Casey (LIB 1.9%)
Liberal retain.

Charlton (ALP 12.7%)
Labor retain.

Chifley (ALP 12.3%)
Labor retain, although it may come very close.

Chisholm (ALP 5.8%)
Labor favoured, although better for the Liberals than neighbouring Bruce.

Cook (LIB 12.7%)
Liberal retain.

Corangamite (ALP 0.3%)
Should be an easy Liberal gain at this stage.

Corio (ALP 13.5%)
Labor retain.

Cowan (LIB 6.3%)
Liberal retain.

Cowper (NAT 9.3%)
National retain.

Cunningham (ALP 13.2%)
Labor retain.

Curtin (LIB 16.2%)
Liberal retain.

Dawson (LNP 2.4%)
LNP retain.

Deakin (ALP 0.6%)
Liberal gain, particularly after the last redistribution added areas such as Ringwood to the seat.

Denison (IND 1.2% vs ALP)
Andrew Wilkie has been a strong member, and should be re-elected easily.

Dickson (LNP 5.1%)
LNP retain.

Dobell* (ALP 5.1%)
Considering what has happened to the sitting member, Craig Thomson, over the past few years, this should be an easy Liberal gain.

Dunkley (LIB 1.1%)
Liberal retain, despite the small margin.

Durack (LIB 13.7%)
Liberal retain, although the Nationals should poll well.

Eden-Monaro (ALP 4.2%)
A bellwether seat since 1972, Mike Kelly is a strong member, although if the swing is on, the seat should hold its bellwether status.

Fadden (LNP 14.2%)
LNP retain.

Fairfax (LNP 7.0%)
LNP retain.

Farrer (LIB 14.5%)
Liberal retain.

Fisher* (LNP 4.1%)
Peter Slipper, like Craig Thomson, has made quite a mess of himself, and the LNP should win this one back.

Flinders (LIB 9.1%)
Liberal retain.

Flynn (LNP 3.6%)
LNP retain.

Forde (LNP 1.6%)
LNP retain.

Forrest (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.

Fowler (ALP 8.8%)
Likely Labor retain, although this could become quite marginal.

Franklin (ALP 10.8%)
One to watch, this could go either way.

Fraser (ALP 14.2%)
Labor retain.

Fremantle (ALP 5.7%)
Likely Labor retain.

Gellibrand (ALP 24.1%)
Labor retain.

Gilmore (LIB 5.3%)
Liberal retain.

Gippsland (NAT 11.5%)
National retain.

Goldstein (LIB 6.0%)
Liberal retain.

Gorton (ALP 23.6%)
Labor retain.

Grayndler (ALP 20.6%)
This seat only has a 4.2% margin against the Greens, although Anthony Albanese is a strong member, and the Greens have gone down in polling over the past 3 years.

Grey (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.

Greenway (ALP 0.9%)
Likely Liberal gain.

Griffith (ALP 8.5%)
The seat in Queensland Labor are most likely to hold.

Groom (LNP 18.5%)
LNP retain.

Hasluck (LIB 0.7%)
Liberal retain, unless Labor’s standing improves in Western Australia over the next few months.

Herbert (LNP 2.2%)
LNP retain.

Higgins (LIB 5.4%)
Liberal retain.

Hindmarsh (ALP 6.1%)
The seat most likely to be lost by Labor in South Australia.

Hinkler (LNP 10.4%)
LNP retain.

Holt (ALP 14.0%)
Labor retain, although I expect a large swing against them here.

Hotham (ALP 14.0%)
Labor retain.

Hughes (LIB 5.2%)
Liberal retain.

Hume (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.

Hunter (ALP 12.5%)
Labor retain.

Due to the character limit, my predictions will be continued in the next post.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Indi (LIB 9.0%)
Liberal retain.

Isaacs (ALP 10.4%)
Labor retain, unless the swing in Victoria is large.

Jagajaga (ALP 11.1%)
Labor retain.

Kennedy (KAP 18.3% vs LNP)
Bob Katter should win easily.

Kingsford Smith (ALP 5.2%)
Normally an easy win for Labor, 2013 could see this seat go Liberal for the first time.

Kingston (ALP 14.5%)
Hard to call, the Labor margin is VERY over-inflated, so there could be a large swing back to the Liberals this year.

Kooyong (LIB 7.5%)
Liberal retain.

La Trobe (ALP 1.7%)
Key contest, at this stage a Liberal gain.

Lalor (ALP 22.1%)
Labor retain.

Leichhardt (LNP 4.6%)
LNP retain.

Lilley (ALP 3.2%)
A prize target for the LNP, Lilley will be very difficult to hold in 2013.

Lindsay (ALP 1.1%)
Liberal gain.

Lingiari (ALP 3.7%)
Normally a Labor seat, the significant swings to the CLP in last year’s NT election may be repeated here, in which case the CLP could easily win this.

Longman (LNP 1.9%)
LNP retain.

Lyne (IND 12.7% vs NAT)
National gain.

Lyons (ALP 12.3%)
Like Franklin, this is hard to pin down, it could go either way.

Macarthur (LIB 3.0%)
Liberal retain.

Mackellar (LIB 15.7%)
Liberal retain.

Macquarie (LIB 1.3%)
Liberal retain.

Makin (ALP 12.0%)
Hard to call, the margin is quite over-inflated, although Tony Zappia is quite popular. I’d expect Zappia to win again, with a significantly lower majority.

Mallee (NAT 23.3%)
National retain.

Maranoa (LNP 22.9%)
LNP retain.

Maribyrnong (ALP 17.5%)
Labor retain.

Mayo (LIB 7.3%)
Liberal retain.

McEwen (ALP 9.2%)
Strengthened for Labor in the last redistribution, they should hold on here, I’d expect it to go back to more marginal territory though.

McMahon (ALP 7.8%)
Normally safe Labor, McMahon could surprise in 2013.

McMillan (LIB 4.2%)
Liberal retain.

McPherson (LNP 10.3%)
LNP retain.

Melbourne (GRN 6.0% vs ALP)
The Green tide has receded somewhat, although Adam Bandt, as an incumbent MP, should hold on.

Melbourne Ports (ALP 7.9%)
Likely Labor retain, unless the Liberal swing is very strong.

Menzies (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.

Mitchell (LIB 17.2%)
Liberal retain.

Moncrieff (LNP 17.5%)
LNP retain.

Moore (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.

Moreton (ALP 1.1%)
Graham Perrett is fairly popular, although should lose his seat the way the ALP are going in Queensland.

Murray (LIB 19.6%)
Liberal retain.

New England (IND 21.5% vs NAT)
Tony Windsor will likely be harder to dislodge than Rob Oakeshott, but the Nationals should win here.

Newcastle (ALP 12.5%)
Labor retain.

North Sydney (LIB 14.1%)
Liberal retain.

O’Connor (WAN 3.6% vs LIB)
With Tony Crook bowing out after one term, the result here will depend on the quality of the National and Liberal candidates.

Oxley (ALP 5.8%)
After Griffith, the seat Labor are most likely to hold in Queensland.

Page (ALP 4.2%)
Key contest, would go National at this point in time.

Parkes (NAT 18.9%)
National retain.

Parramatta (ALP 4.4%)
Liberal gain at this point in time.

Paterson (LIB 5.3%)
Liberal retain.

Pearce (LIB 8.9%)
Liberal retain.

Perth (ALP 5.9%)
Labor have a decent chance of holding on here, particularly if they invest most of their WA efforts into saving Stephen Smith.

Petrie (ALP 2.5%)
Likely LNP gain.

Port Adelaide (ALP 21.0%)
Labor retain.

Rankin (ALP 5.4%)
Possible LNP gain, could go either way.

Reid (ALP 2.7%)
Likely Liberal gain.

Richmond (ALP 7.0%)
Harder to win than Page, this could go National in 2013.

Riverina (NAT 18.2%)
National retain.

Robertson (ALP 1.0%)
Likely Liberal gain.

Ryan (LNP 7.2%)
LNP retain.

Scullin (ALP 20.6%)
Labor retain.

Shortland (ALP 12.9%)
Labor retain, this would be Liberal held on federal state figures though.

Solomon (CLP 1.8%)
CLP retain.

Stirling (LIB 5.6%)
Liberal retain.

Sturt (LIB 3.6%)
Liberal retain, likely with a significantly increased majority.

Swan (LIB 2.5%)
Liberal retain.

Sydney (ALP 17.1%)
Labor retain.

Tangney (LIB 12.3%)
Liberal retain.

Thorsby (ALP 12.1%)
Labor retain.

Wakefield (ALP 10.5%)
Like Makin and Kingston, the margin in Wakefield is quite inflated, and could swing back to the Liberals significantly in 2013. Hard to call at this stage.

Wannon (LIB 5.7%)
Liberal retain.

Warringah (LIB 13.1%)
Liberal retain.

Watson (ALP 9.1%)
Labor retain, although this could get quite marginal.

Wentworth (LIB 14.9%)
Liberal retain.

Werriwa (ALP 6.8%)
The fact that Werriwa is a possibility of a Liberal pickup highlights the problems Labor have had in New South Wales recently.

Wide Bay (LNP 15.6%)
LNP retain.

Wills (ALP 23.5%)
Labor retain.

Wright (LNP 10.2%)
LNP retain.

Parliament on these predictions: 38 ALP, 90 LNP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1 IND, 19 Toss-up

Feel free to use the blank map in the gallery to post a colourful picturesque map of your predictions.

Will do, Smid!

[Smid]

I'm reasonably confident that the Greens will be toppled in Melbourne, unless the Liberals decide to preference them... which, from what I've heard, is unlikely.