Is Pennsylvania a swing state? (user search)
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  Is Pennsylvania a swing state? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is Pennsylvania a swing state?  (Read 4859 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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Posts: 58,196
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« on: January 13, 2010, 02:08:14 PM »

Yes, seems to.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,196
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2010, 02:34:55 PM »

In Presidential elections, not really.  It was very close in 2004, but otherwise it always seems to skew safely Democratic, except in Republican landslides like 1980-1988.  If you compare PA to Ohio, for example, it has consistently been a little more Democratic in each election than OH.  Republicans like to think it's a battleground, but it has two big urban Democrat strong-holds what with Pittsburg and Philly and too many blue-collar Dems in the rural areas.  2004 was a close call for the Dems because economics were on the back-burner while war/terrorism and Kerry's murky vietnam/swiftboats background was the main headline.  Ohio is the state that becomes a lot more open to both parties.   

Obama won PA by only 3 points more than the nationwide margin. That means that, if Reagan had won with a 3-points margin in PV, he would have carried PA. That makes it definitely a swing State.
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