Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[bullmoose88]

What sort of district did you poll in?

NDP leaner I assume?

[Hatman 🍁]

What sort of district did you poll in?

NDP leaner I assume?

It was a national poll. Mostly in Ontario though, with 3 in the Atlantic and one Manitoba. Interestinly one of the dippers was from Newfoundland

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Ipsos-Reid poll...

Con 38%, Lib 26%, NDP 19%

Was a big sample, so whenever the regionals are findable they won't have MoE's of like 10%...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Riding poll updates... apparently Leger has the Tories leading the BQ by 42% to 23% in Louis Saint Laurent [in Quebec City]... and now for some more polls published by the La Presse newspaper... (article is HERE for those of you who can read french)...

For those who can't... (my french is quite bad these days, so a cock up is possible...)

In Papineau the Liberals are on 29% and the Bloc 42%, in Outremont the Liberals are on 30%, the Bloc on 27% and the NDP on 20%, in Jeanne le Ber it's 34%/33%, in Brome-Missisquoi the Bloc have 37%, the Liberals 29% and the Tories 21%, in Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier some independent has 42% and the Bloc 28%, in Pontiac the Bloc has 30%, the Tories 29% and the Liberals 22%, in Louis Saint Laurent the Tories have 59% and in Beauce the Tories have 57% to the Blocs 28%.

[minionofmidas]

Riding poll updates... apparently Leger has the Tories leading the BQ by 42% to 23% in Louis Saint Laurent [in Quebec City]... and now for some more polls published by the La Presse newspaper... (article is HERE for those of you who can read french)...

For those who can't... (my french is quite bad these days, so a cock up is possible...)

In Papineau the Liberals are on 29% and the Bloc 42%, in Outremont the Liberals are on 30%, the Bloc on 27% and the NDP on 20%, in Jeanne le Ber it's 34%/33%, in Brome-Missisquoi the Bloc have 37%, the Liberals 29% and the Tories 21%, in Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier some independent has 42% and the Bloc 28%, in Pontiac the Bloc has 30%, the Tories 29% and the Liberals 22%, in Louis Saint Laurent the Tories have 59% and in Beauce the Tories have 57% to the Blocs 28%.

8 polls of 300 people each, moe 6%, percentages recalculated to those who said who they'd vote for (ie, no undecided percentage. ie, like German polls)

Papineau Bloc 42% Lib 29% NDP 13% Con 9%
Outremont Lib 30% Bloc 27% NDP 20%
Jeanne-Le Ber Bloc 34% Lib 33% NDP and Con 23% together, doesn't say about split
Brôme-Missisquoi Bloc 37% Lib 29% Con 21%
Portneuf i 42% Bloc 28%
Beauce Con 57% (!) Bloc 28% that's a Liberal constituency now...
Louis-Saint-Laurent Con 59% (!)
Pontiac Bloc 30% Con 29% Lib 22%

So in other words, all you did is get the lead in Jeanne-Le Ber the wrong way round.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Taking into account the latest polls from Quebec and Churchill:

Ridings that are safe to be held by the party elected there in 2004 I'll be omitting to save space. Also, all safe seat gains are from the Libs.

strong = reasonably certain, but a combination of local and national factors could cause it to fall to another party
prob = I think it'll go this way, but either local or national factors could cause it to change by themselves
slight =  A toss-up that won't surprise me at all if it goes the other way

Seats that represent a change will get a color marking as well

Newfoundland and Labrador
Lib 3 (-2) Con 3 (+1) NDP 1 (+1)
Bonavista—Exploits safe Con gain
Labrador prob Lib hold over Con
Random—Burin—St. George's slight NDP gain from Lib

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4 (-0) Con 0 (+0)
Cardigan strong Lib hold over Con
Charlottetown prob Lib hold over Con
Malpeque slight Lib hold over Con

Nova Scotia
Con 5 (+1) Lib 3 (-2) NDP 3 (+1)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour strong NDP gain from Lib
Halifax West strong Lib hold over NDP
Kings—Hants slight Lib hold over Con
Sydney—Victoria strong Lib hold over NDP
West Nova strong Con gain from Lib

New Brunswick
Con 5 (+3) Lib 4 (-3) NDP 1
Fredericton strong Con gain from Lib
Madawaska—Restigouche prob Lib hold over Con and NDP
Miramichi slight Lib hold over Con
Saint John safe Con gain
Tobique—Mactaquac safe Con gain

Quebec
BQ 62 (+8) Lib 9 (-12) Con 3 (+3) Ind 1(+1)
Ahuntsic safe BQ gain
Beauce safe Con gain over BQ (was held by Lib)
Bourassa slight BQ gain from Lib
Brome—Missisquoi safe BQ gain
Brossard—La Prairie strong BQ gain from Lib
Gatineau safe BQ gain
Honoré-Mercier strong BQ gain from Lib
Hull—Aylmer prob BQ gain from Lib
Jeanne-Le Ber slight BQ gain from Lib
Laval—Les Îles slight Lib hold over BQ
Lévis—Bellechasse strong BQ hold over Con
Louis-Saint-Laurent  safe Con gain from BQ
Outremont prob BQ gain over Lib
Papineau safe BQ gain
Pontiac slight Con gain over BQ (was held by Lib)
Portneuf prob Ind gain from BQ

Ontario
Con 60 (+36) Lib 28 (-43) NDP 14 (+7)
Ajax—Pickering slight Con gain from Lib
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing prob NDP gain from Lib
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale safe Con gain
Barrie safe Con gain
Bramalea—Gore—Malton slight Lib hold over Con
Brampton West safe Con gain
Brant safe Con gain
Burlington safe Con gain
Chatham-Kent—Essex safe Con gain
Davenport prob Lib hold over NDP
Etobicoke—Lakeshore slight Con gain from Lib
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell prob Con gain from Lib
Guelph strong Lib hold over Con
Halton prob Con gain from Lib
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek safe NDP gain
Hamilton Mountain prob Con gain from Lib
Huron—Bruce slight Con gain from Lib
Kenora slight Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib)
Kitchener Centre slight Lib hold over Con
Kitchener—Conestoga safe Con gain
London—Fanshawe prob Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib}
London North Centre prob Con gain from Lib
London West strong Con gain from Lib
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton safe Con gain
Mississauga South prob Con gain from Lib
Mississauga—Streetsville slight Con gain from Lib
Newmarket—Aurora safe Con regain from Belinda
Nickel Belt slight NDP gain from Lib
Nipissing—Timiskaming safe Con gain
Northumberland—Quinte West safe Con gain
Oak Ridges—Markham prob Con gain from Lib
Oakville strong Con gain from Lib
Oshawa strong Con hold over NDP
Ottawa—Orléans safe Con gain
Ottawa South prob Con gain from Lib
Ottawa West—Nepean safe Con gain from Lib
Parkdale—High Park prob NDP gain from Lib
Parry Sound—Muskoka prob Con gain from Lib
Peterborough prob Con gain from Lib
St. Catharines safe Con gain
Sarnia—Lambton prob Con gain from Lib
Simcoe North safe Con gain
Sudbury prob NDP gain from Lib
Thornhill slight Con gain from Lib
Thunder Bay—Rainy River prob Con gain over NDP  (was held by Lib)
Thunder Bay—Superior North prob NDP gain from Lib
Trinity—Spadina safe NDP gain
Whitby—Oshawa strong Con gain from Lib
Welland prob Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib)

Manitoba
Con 9 (+2) NDP 4(-0) Lib 1(-2) Ind 0(+0)
Churchill prob NDP hold over Lib (strong hold over Ind)
Saint Boniface slight Con gain from Lib
Winnipeg South prob Con gain from Lib
Winnipeg South Centre prob Lib hold over Con

Saskatchewan
Con 13 Lib 1

Alberta
Con 28 (+2) Lib 0 (-2)
Edmonton—Beaumont safe Con gain
Edmonton Centre strong Con gain

British Columbia
Con 22 (+2) Lib 8 (-0) NDP 4 (-1) Ind 0 (-1)
Burnaby—Douglas slight NDP hold over Lib
Burnaby—New Westminster Lib slight gain from NDP
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca slight Lib hold over NDP
New Westminster—Coquitlam strong Con hold over NDP
North Vancouver prob Con gain from Lib
Richmond slight Lib hold over Con
Skeena—Bulkley Valley prob Con gain from NDP
Southern Interior prob NDP gain from Con
Surrey North strong Con gain over NDP from Ind
Vancouver Centre slight Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver Kingsway slight Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver South prob Lib hold over Con
Victoria slight Lib hold over NDP

Territories
Lib 2 (-1) NDP 1 (+1)
Western Arctic strong NDP gain from Lib
Canada
Con 149 (+50)
Lib 68 (-67)
BQ 62 (+8)
NDP 28 (+9)
Ind 1 (+0)

(editted to restore name of Sudbury)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The good news: A good chance of the Liberals becoming the third party.
The bad news: If that happens probably a Conservative MAJORITY government

I think Ernest's prediction is probably more likely though, and could be best as it would devestate the Liberals but keep the Conservatives at bay.

[Gabu]

The good news: A good chance of the Liberals becoming the third party.
The bad news: If that happens probably a Conservative MAJORITY government

This is basically my problem.  I think it's time for the Liberals to have a time-out in the corner, but the only other party with any chance of forming a government is the Conservatives.  If we get a Conservative minority, it'll be out within a year.  If we get a Conservative majority... well, we get a Conservative majority, which needs no further explanation.

Canada is basically screwed as far as this election goes.  There is basically no possible good outcome.

[minionofmidas]

The good news: A good chance of the Liberals becoming the third party.
The bad news: If that happens probably a Conservative MAJORITY government

This is basically my problem.  I think it's time for the Liberals to have a time-out in the corner, but the only other party with any chance of forming a government is the Conservatives.  If we get a Conservative minority, it'll be out within a year.  If we get a Conservative majority... well, we get a Conservative majority, which needs no further explanation.

Canada is basically screwed as far as this election goes.  There is basically no possible good outcome.

Just hope for a good many NDP gains in ridings the Liberals can't win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does anyone else think that this reeks of desperation?

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/17/martin-layton.html

Oh yes... look at this:

NHL Player Sues Liberal MP

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Does anyone else think that this reeks of desperation?

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/17/martin-layton.html

Yes, but then the Liberals are in desperate straits.  If they collapse any farther they could end up in fourth place behind the NDP.  While I doubt if they will, it would be the beginning of the end for the Liberals if it did happen and they have to know it.

[Lincoln Republican]

Does anyone else think that this reeks of desperation?

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/17/martin-layton.html

Oh yes... look at this:

NHL Player Sues Liberal MP

Not only desperate, but absolutely pathetic.

Goodbye Paul Martin, you pompous, arrogant, cynical, do nothing, will say anything about anybody to get elected, "I want to be Prime Minister, but I don't know why," windbag.

And good riddance.

[ATFFL]

Is there any chance of party jumping to push the Conservatives to a majority if they are close?

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow NDP is at 20% in Outremont? Makes sense, their candidate is a popular professor.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does anyone else think that this reeks of desperation?

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/17/martin-layton.html

That made me literally laugh out loud.

[Hatman 🍁]

I just researched the independent running in Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier and it is Andre Arthur, a popular radio personality in the Quebec City area. Wouldn't that be interesting if he won?

[Gabu]

Does anyone else think that this reeks of desperation?

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/17/martin-layton.html

That made me literally laugh out loud.

Well, he's got somewhat of a point, really, even if the headline words it in a way that makes it sound funny.  This entire election is happening basically due to Layton, and if the Conservatives do get a majority government out of it, the NDP will have lost a ton of power compared with what they had under the minority Liberal government.

[Richard]

Kitchener—Conestoga safe Con gain

Why?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Kitchener—Conestoga safe Con gain

Why?

Assuming just an average vote swing for Ontario based on the latest polls, it'll easily go Tory.  Provincially, Waterloo—Wellington (which is the core of what was redrawn as Kitchener—Conestoga) was so safely Conservative that it stayed in Tory hands despite their 2003 Ontario collapse. I can't see Myer's incumbency saving him this election unless the Liberals do impossibly better than expected.

[Platypus]

*roots for Con majority*

[Platypus]

How much would it suck to be Stronach right about now?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How much would it suck to be Stronach right about now?

*Quite* a lot

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regional breakdowns of the Ipsos-Reid poll with the huge sample (ie; we finally have regional numbers that don't have a head-hurting MoE...)

+/- are from the 2004 election.

Atlantic

Lib 38% (-5), Con 32% (+2), NDP 26% (+4)

Both NDP and Tories are reported to be optimistic about making gains in NS and NB

Quebec

BQ 48% (-), Con 25% (+16), Lib 13% (-21), NDP 10% (+5)

Ouch

Ontario

Con 39% (+8), Lib 35% (-10), NDP 20% (+2)

Nothing to add

Sask/Man

Con 44% (+4), NDP 25% (+2), Lib 25% (-5)

Liberals bleeding on both flanks it seems; if we extrapolate from patterns seen in the GTA the Tory gains are almost certain to be in suburban Winnipeg

Alberta

Con 69% (+7), Lib 14 (-8), NDP 10% (-)

Ouch

BC

Con 37% (+1), NDP 29% (+3), Lib 28 (-)

Interesting numbers...

[minionofmidas]

Wow NDP is at 20% in Outremont? Makes sense, their candidate is a popular professor.

Has the NDP ever won even a single seat in Québec. If not it's about time it happened now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Has the NDP ever won even a single seat in Québec.

Yes; Chambly in a by-election in 1990. There was a brief moment in the very, very early '90's, in the time between Mulroney fell out of favour with the Nationalists and the formation of the Bloc, when the NDP was actually the party of choice for Nationalist voters in Quebec (and there's a strange echo of that in northern New Brunswick where the NDP is a sort of Bloc Acadia). Interestingly the BQ candidate who ran against Chretien in '93 ran in the same riding as a Dipper in '88.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You can never entirely rule out anything in Quebec; I think we've all learned that over the past few months... not actually sure if Outremont will be the NDP's best Quebec showing actually; they'll save their deposit (15% in Canada...) though.