MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

On the one hand, aesthetically Craig was perfect. On the other hand, if he was that horrible at actually campaigning, he would have stood no chance against Slotkin.

Rogers is certainly underwhelming and leaves much to be desired, but he's a much stronger candidate than the two hedge fund managers(McCormick/Hovde), so I still think MI is still viable for the GOP. He probably needs Trump to win MI though.

Yeah Craig would not have a run a good campaign if he was so incompetent at the very basics. He could've easily gotten the nomination in MI-Gov 22 and MI-Sen 24 if he wasn't a disaster. Him dropping out now is a sign that an actual campaign would not have succeeded.

Craig is among the most disappointing Republican "rising stars" of the decade, alongside Majewski in neighboring Ohio.

Majewski was never a “rising star”. He was a weirdo that painted a Trump sign into his yard.

Ok, I might have used overly strong wording. But he did seem to have some potential, briefly.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

On the one hand, aesthetically Craig was perfect. On the other hand, if he was that horrible at actually campaigning, he would have stood no chance against Slotkin.

Rogers is certainly underwhelming and leaves much to be desired, but he's a much stronger candidate than the two hedge fund managers(McCormick/Hovde), so I still think MI is still viable for the GOP. He probably needs Trump to win MI though.

Yeah Craig would not have a run a good campaign if he was so incompetent at the very basics. He could've easily gotten the nomination in MI-Gov 22 and MI-Sen 24 if he wasn't a disaster. Him dropping out now is a sign that an actual campaign would not have succeeded.

Craig is among the most disappointing Republican "rising stars" of the decade, alongside Majewski in neighboring Ohio.

Majewski was never a “rising star”. He was a weirdo that painted a Trump sign into his yard.

Ok, I might have used overly strong wording. But he did seem to have some potential, briefly.

You’re right, before Majewski’s veteran scandal he was getting outsized attention for an underdog congressional candidate

[Illiniwek]

I have a feeling I will be voting for Amash in the primary! Meijer could have had my vote, but his going home to trump sealed the deal on that.

It will be very interesting to see who the DeVos/Van Andel/Amway money gets behind. I could see it going to any of the three.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1767269189394248063?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Weird fact about this race; both Rogers and Slotkin are former intelligence officers. Rogers served as an FBI special agent in the early 90s and Slotkin served as a CIA analysis in Iraq during the 2000s

[Roll Roons]

Weird fact about this race; both Rogers and Slotkin are former intelligence officers. Rogers served as an FBI special agent in the early 90s and Slotkin served as a CIA analysis in Iraq during the 2000s

Rogers was even the Chair of the House Intel Committee!

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Trump had to endorse someone and the other two major candidates, impeached him.

Just a very weird GOP primary given the state of the GOP party elsewhere.

[Oryxslayer]

Trump had to endorse someone and the other two major candidates, impeached him.

Just a very weird GOP primary given the state of the GOP party elsewhere.

I mean the Michigan GOP is in a very weird position at the moment. Oddities beget oddities.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Trump had to endorse someone and the other two major candidates, impeached him.

Just a very weird GOP primary given the state of the GOP party elsewhere.

I mean the Michigan GOP is in a very weird position at the moment. Oddities beget oddities.

Yes but Rodgers seems like the perfect fit for the Romney "old GOP." Given the state of the party in Michgan you would think this would be the swing state with a Kari Lake type instead of AZ

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I support Slotkin unless Amash becomes the nominee

[Pollster]

It is noteworthy how all three of the Republican candidates here have genuine anti-Trump credibility. Especially with the primary being separate from the already-held Presidential, I'm very interested in seeing what turnout looks like, and where.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/nannburke/status/1783964753292857450

He had no chance of winning the primary, but would have been a strong GE candidate if he had.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/nannburke/status/1783964753292857450

He had no chance of winning the primary, but would have been a strong GE candidate if he had.

Ehh, he kinda blew it with the whole “Biden is a bigger criminal than Trump; impeachment was a mistake” schtick

[ultraviolet]

Bill Huizenga has been MIGOP’s strongest benchwarmer for the last two cycles, not sure why he hasn’t run. He should in 2026. I could see him as a future VP pick if he becomes senator.

[Compuzled_One]

I think Rogers will win-little chance Amash will, with this Rust Belt state.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1793992231247819064

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1793992231247819064

What are the odds he gets taken off the ballot?

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

The deadline to challenge was three weeks ago

[Splash]

The deadline to challenge was three weeks ago

The Board of Canvassers can elect to conduct their own investigation and throw Rogers off the ballot if they find sufficient fraud. That's what happened in 2022 with Craig and other candidates.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What is it with Michigan signature law man? It seems this happens more here than anywhere else?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What is it with Michigan signature law man? It seems this happens more here than anywhere else?

It’s pretty strict, but the big thing is simply that they actually enforce them (unlike New Jersey which only does so in a very, very pro-machine manner).  I believe Pennsylvania is another state that takes this stuff pretty seriously (albeit not to the same degree agree as Michigan, which tends to be better about this than any other country), there just haven’t been any high-profile instances of a federal candidate getting knocked of the ballot there lately. 

On a different note, Adam Hollier has been tossed from the ballot.  I think he was actually well on track to unseat Thanedar in the primary as the Detroit AA political machine was pretty invested in backing him* and Thanedar is a very weak incumbent who put his foot in his mouth several times during the campaign.  Alas, it looks like rather than put in the work gathering signatures, over half the signatures (iirc) were fraudulent.  This looks less to me like the James Craig situation (where (iirc) the contractors the campaign outsourced their signature gathering to** engaged in fraud and the campaign genuinely didn’t know) and more like willful fraud by at least some folks in the campaign itself.  I believe over half the signatures were fraudulent, so we’re not just talking getting caught cutting some corners. 

The challenge against Hertel seems like bad-faith nonsense (the argument is from a Republican hack who is basically asking us to believe that since Hertel said he was running for Congress rather than US House, voters were tricked into thinking they were signing petitions for a Hertel for Senate campaign rather than a Hertel for House campaign ).  Hertel should be fine, although obviously you never know for sure with these things. 

I believe Nikki Snyder is facing some sort of challenge, but I don’t know the details.  As for Mike Rogers, there are what sound like some potentially (and “potentially” is doing a lot of the heavy lifting) serious fraud allegations here.  Yes, the deadline passed, but Michigan takes this stuff seriously and even if the deadline has passed (as I believe it had with Craig in 2022), an investigation could absolutely still be opened with a potential finding that Rogers should be tossed from the ballot.  Obviously, a number of things would have to go wrong for the Rogers campaign for that to happen and idk the details of the allegations, but it’s at least worth mentioning.


*Take note everyone: the support Hollier got this year was the level of investment from the Detroit AA machine that would be necessary to give Tlaib a real run for her money; without that and a suitably competent on paper candidate, primarying her isn’t worth seriously discussing).  It could be done, but not without those things and even then, it’d still be highly competitive.  Thenader is a higher priority target for the Detroit AA machine right now, so I doubt they take a shot at Tlaib while he’s in office.

**One thing that many don’t realize is how difficult, time consuming, and easy to screw up signature gathering is.  When I managed a state house campaign in 2014, I opted to have the campaign so its own signature-gathering (partly to have more control over how it was conducted in general, but also because I have a deep distrust of signature gathering contractors regarding their willingness to cut corners).  This was pretty unusual and got me some puzzled looks from a few folks with the state party since signature gathering is often outsourced to (rather expensive) third party contractors. 

The problem is that often (at least the folks I had to choose from if we went that route) finish shortly before the deadline and have a number of other clients.  As such, if they cut corners (or worse commit outright fraud), you may not have time to catch and correct it, so you’re left just submitting what they gave you and praying that they did it by the book.  I personally would much rather put in a bit of extra work on the campaign’s end and be sure everything is by the book, but many folks would prefer to let someone else worry about that so the campaign itself has one less thing to worry about.  It’s very much a reasonable minds can differ thing and I am definitely biased against signature gathering contractors simply because I know all about many of the worst screw ups, but you never really think about how often it goes off without a hitch.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Hollier going down sucks. Thanedar can be a bit all over the place ideologically and he just gives snake oil salesman vibes