MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[Roll Roons]

Btw, Cook is calling this race Lean D to start: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/michigan-senate/open-michigan-senate-seat-starts-lean-democratic

Not sure when the rest of their ratings will come out.

I've had problems with Cook's ratings in the past (namely their refusal to ever move NJ Gov out of Safe D in 2021), but I think this is a fair starting point. A "bench" isn't everything, but Democrats clearly have the better one and besides Trump's very narrow victory, it has proven to be a Democratic-leaning state in recent years.

[Roll Roons]

Stevens is a NO

https://twitter.com/bresreports/status/1620174468583931908

So should we just go ahead and assume Slotkin will be the nominee?

I think so.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1627106483350429696

Yeah, something makes me think this seat isn't terribly likely to flip.

[Roll Roons]

Gilchrist OUT:
https://twitter.com/garlin/status/1629935262326222851

[Roll Roons]

Tuttle is not great, but the alternative here isn't some stellar candidate, it's someone like Tudor Dixon.

Yeah. Meijer would be a great GE candidate, but unfortunately he'd never make it through the primary.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1689597613522202624

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1703783131160154426

Man we are in big trouble here. Slottin and DSCC need to be on their A game

Not really.  This race is Likely D, closer to Safe D than Lean D.  Craig is a really weak candidate and Rogers isn’t much better.

What makes them especially weak?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/VoteMeijer/status/1721481674293219654
It'll be a hell of a hard road for him, but endorsed nonetheless.

[Roll Roons]

It should have been a sign that Craig was a terrible candidate when he couldn't get enough signatures to get on the ballot in 2022. Rogers is a strong favorite in this primary.

The above fundraising numbers are why me and others brought up the signature issues even though it doesn't matter electorally. It was a flashing red light that this guy doesn't know how to run the backend of a campaign, which will lead to decisions that do have electoral impacts. And the fundraising is a sign that things have not changed in this regard.

Makes me question why Schumer was so dead set on Theresa Greenfield to run against Ernst in 2020. She got kicked off the ballot for a House race for basically the same reason.

[Roll Roons]

Who even is in the Trumpist lane in the primary? Rogers hardly seems it given his anti-Trump rhetoric up until the minute he ran for Senate.

It was James Craig, but we all know how that turned out.

[Roll Roons]

Weird fact about this race; both Rogers and Slotkin are former intelligence officers. Rogers served as an FBI special agent in the early 90s and Slotkin served as a CIA analysis in Iraq during the 2000s

Rogers was even the Chair of the House Intel Committee!