French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015
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  French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015
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Author Topic: French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015  (Read 51978 times)
Zanas
Zanas46
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« on: September 18, 2015, 05:34:31 AM »

Well, now seems as good a time as any to start discussing this. I'll leave this post as a place-holder, for I don't have the time right now to explain things a bit. Hash, if by any chance you were going to write a super-duper explaining thesis, by all means help yourself and insert it here if you want to.
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Zanas
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2015, 05:48:08 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2015, 05:50:38 AM by Watermelon sin Jamón »

So, basic fact : regions have merged. We now have larger regions with awful names consisting of all the previous regions. We have an Ifop poll today of Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées (LRMP) :

FN (far-right) 27
LR(ex-UMP)-UDI-Modem (right and centre-right) 26
PS-PRG (centre-left) 21
EELV-FG (greens and radical left) 16
Saurel (his own man, but centre) 7
DLF (sovereignist right) 3

Runoff

Left 39
Right 32
FN 29

I put labels as a courtesy for the less informed among you about French politics. I know I sometimes get in a thread about some country and just the acronyms don't give me a clue what we're talking about.

Who is Philippe Saurel ? He is the mayor of Montpellier, ex-capital of Languedoc-Roussillon, the loser in the merger of the two regions. He was elected as mayor of Montpellier as a PS dissident, not having participated in the primaries. He ran as an "anti-system" candidate, pretty funny for a mason... He is now running on "Montpellier and the L-R region must be heard and not lose everything to Toulouse and the larger Midi-Pyrénées region", and doing so as a vibrant independent, rallying DVD mayors and what not. He should gather quite a support in Montpellier and the surrounding Hérault département, a
reasonable score in L-R, but not so much in M-P where he is basically unknown. What his stance on the runoff would be is anyone's guess. It can range anywhere from running on his own if he gets 10% (not very likely though), and merging with the left or the right or noone if he stays below.

Another thing : don't get the impression that the left is doing good. This is actually their safest new region, and even this could go bad in the right (or wrong) set of circumstances. All other regions are well into play.

And the FN is doing rather good in Languedoc, but poorly in Midi-Py, hence the relatively lackluster showing in the poll (yeah, 27% in a first round for FN is lackluster these days, I hate France).
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2015, 05:53:15 AM »

Wait, why are EELV running with FG? Is this just a regional thing, or part of a trend away from PS?
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Zanas
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2015, 07:09:15 AM »

Well EELV and FG have tried to discuss alliances in all regions, but outcomes were varied. EELV has now finally gotten rid of its most right-wing faction (Placé, de Rugy et al.), and is now a tad to the left of where it stood a couple of years ago. Plus they got out of government, so they need to be critic of the government.

Also, EELV has a very decentralized way of doing things. Alliances are decided by the members at the level of the election, so here at the regional level, with no veto power from the national level (in theory). So in some regions they are open to talks with the FG, in other less so. What's sure is that they won't be allying with the PS anywhere. LRMP is actually the only region in which EELV and the whole of the FG have been able to ally. In several others, the talks went good but the PCF and EELV had too many discrepancies on multiple mandates or nuclear power. In PACA and Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, chances are we will see EELV-rumpFG alliances, with the PCF running alone.
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2015, 10:19:13 PM »

Another defection from EELV today, in fact, again related to alliances (EELV has voted in favour of an alliance with Mémélenchon's folks in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie, where the left will therefore be divided between 3 lists) - Stéphane Gatignon, ironically ex-PCF, mayor of Sevran (93).
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2015, 10:25:59 PM »

I'm considering pretending these elections don't exist, because everything about them pisses me off so much...
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2015, 10:38:44 PM »

Here's a fresh poll for NPDC-P

First round scenarios

Panzergirl (FN) 34%
Bertrand (Right) 28%
PS-PRG 18%
EELV-PG-ND 10%
PCF 5%
DLF 2.5%
LO 2%
PFE 0.5%

Panzergirl (FN) 35%
Bertrand (Right) 28%
PS-PRG 17%
PCF-PG 9%
EELV 5%
DLF 3%
LO 2%
PFE 1%

Panzergirl (FN) 35%
Bertrand (Right) 30%
United left 28%
DLF 3%
LO 3%
PFE 1%

Runoff

Panzergirl (FN) 35%
Bertrand (Right) 33%
PS-PRG-PCF-PG-EELV 32%
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Umengus
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2015, 05:21:19 AM »

odoxa poll

Marine : 37 %
les républicains + UDI: 26 %
PS: 21 %
PG+EELV: 9 %
extreme left: 4 %
debout la France: 1 %


Marine: 36 %
les républicains + UDI: 26 %
PS: 19 %
FG: 6 %
EELV: 4% (LOL)
extreme left: 4%
debout la France: 2 %


second turn:


Marine: 39 %
les républicains + UDI: 32 %
PS +... : 29 %

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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2015, 05:31:20 AM »

Have Modem and the remaining independent centrists completely given up?
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2015, 08:28:38 PM »

A national poll is out, but these things are silly and useless because of the nature of these elections, although I guess you can argue they give a quick somewhat accurate picture of how things stand generally:

'Républicains'-UDI-MoDem 35%
FN 26%
PS 23%
FG 7%
EELV 3%
DLF 3%
EXG 2%

Of much greater worth, Ifop has released polls for two big regions:

Ile-de-France:
Pécresse (Right) 32% > 40%
Bartolone (PS-PRG) 24% > 39%
Saint-Just (FN) 18% > 21%
Laurent (FG) 9.5%
Cosse (EELV) 7.5%
NDA (DLF) 7%
Arthaud (LO) 1%
Asselineau (UPR) 1%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes:
Wauquiez (Right) 35% > 39%
Queyranne (PS-PRG) 26% > 37%
Boudot (FN) 22% > 24%
Kolhaas (EELV-PG-ND) 10%
Cukierman (PCF) 4%
DLF 1.5%
LO 1%
Oth. 0.5%
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DavidB.
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2015, 10:02:47 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2015, 10:33:01 PM by DavidB. »

I really don't know enough about French politics, but at the risk of asking some dumb questions I'll go ahead. I have the impression that so far, FN's big "shocking" election victories (except for the one in the European Parliament) were considered impressive in terms of vote percentage, but due to the nature of the French electoral system(s) didn't translate into actual representation, except for some special cases (like Marion Maréchal-Le Pen being elected), which makes FN basically irrelevant solely in terms of representation and governing, both on the national and the local/departemental level. Is that correct?

Second question: FN's margins in many polls for the regional elections seem big enough to win runoffs. That would render this election the first one in which FN will become a party that is also relevant when it comes to representation and (possibly) governing, and not only because of its "symbolic power". Is that correct?
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Zanas
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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2015, 04:44:08 AM »

You are somewhat correct. FN has already won several "communes", that's to say towns or cities, the largest being Toulon back in 1995 (~150,000 inhabitants). They have also elected a few deputies in 2012, and a few senators since then, but the nature of our voting system prevent them from gaining much runoffs.

This election could see their first victories in large local executives, while still in the same voting system. Nevertheless, it's still not a done deal, since the turnout should be abysmal in the first round, and many voters could still be scared into voting against the FN in the runoff. That effect was clearly evidenced in quite a number of départementales runoffs earlier this year.

As for the polls, the national poll is indeed of no use to predict the outcome, but if anything it shows a relatively poor showing for the FN.

In Île-de-France, I have a hard time picturing the FG ahead of EELV, but why not. Dupont-Aignan (head of DLF) seems to have gained traction here, but I'll believe it when it actually translates into votes all across IdF, and not only in Yerres and 3 surrounding communes.

In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, even more so than in IdF, I think PS-PRG are somewhat overestimated, and even more in the runoff. You have to remember that the polls before the départementales and the municipales showed relativeley good figures for the PS and both times we expected the PS to maybe not be slaughtered, and, well...
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DavidB.
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2015, 03:04:21 PM »

Thanks for explaining this, Zanas!
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Zanas
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2015, 11:05:40 AM »

New poll for Île-de-France, Odoxa/Le Parisien
, Oct 2nd :

1er tour :
UD : 34
PS-PRG : 24
FN : 20
FG : 8
DLF : 7
EELV : 6
LO : 1

2nd tour :
UD : 41
UG : 38
FN : 21

That seems a bit too high for the FN, but who knows ? and for the PS in the first round. EELV behind the FG in Île-de-France would be a surprise, but maybe their current crisis is really hurting them. The Cop 21 in late November could bring a number of low information voters, especially young, to them though. DLF's score is consistently around 7-8 in IdF, so either he will be triumphant in December or all pollsters will be proved wrong.
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2015, 11:05:28 AM »

Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées (Ifop, 8-12 Oct.)

L. Aliot (FN) 28%
D. Reynié (Right) 25%
C. Delga (PS-PRG) 20%
G. Onesta (EELV-FG) 11%
P. Saurel (Dvg) 8%
C. Cavard (ex-EELV) 2.5%
DLF 2%
ND 2%
UPR 1%
LO 0.5%

C. Delga (PS-PRG) 38%
D. Reynié (Right) 32%
L. Aliot (FN) 30%

PACA (Odoxa, 12-16 Oct.)

Panzermiss (FN) 35%
C. Estrosi (Right) 30%
C. Castaner (PS) 18%
S. Camard (EELV-FG) 10%
DLF 2%
ND 2%
LO 1.5%
J. Bompard (LDS) 1%
UPR 0.5%

Panzermiss (FN) 37%
C. Estrosi (Right) 34%
C. Castaner (PS) 29%
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DavidB.
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2015, 11:47:13 AM »

PACA (Odoxa, 12-16 Oct.)

Panzermiss (FN) 35%
Panzermiss in PACA? I assume this is Marion, and Marine didn't move from the North?
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politicus
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2015, 11:56:05 AM »

PACA (Odoxa, 12-16 Oct.)

Panzermiss (FN) 35%
Panzermiss in PACA? I assume this is Marion, and Marine didn't move from the North?

Yes, Marine is Panzergirl.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2015, 03:59:42 PM »

So at this point, FN will likely win more regions than PS. Awesome.
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The Last Northerner
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2015, 09:37:33 PM »

Any early predictions on the results? In the metropole -  9 - 2 - 2? I somehow don't see the FN breaking into western France.
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Umengus
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2015, 04:25:39 PM »

Shocking BVA Poll

Nord

Le Pen: 42 %
Bertrand: 25 %
PS: 15 %

second turn:

Le Pen: 46 %
Bertrand: 29 %
PS: 25 %
EELV,FG,...: 8 %
PCF: 5 %


or

Le Pen: 52 %
Bertrand: 48 %


Paca

Marion: 36 %
Estrosi: 32 %
Castaner (PS): 15 %
FG, EELV,...: 10 %

Second turn:

Marion: 37 %
Estrosi: 36 %
Castaner: 27 %


Acal

Richert (les républicains,...): 31 %
Philippot (FN): 30 %
PS, EELV: 19 %
FG: 7 %


Second turn:

Richert: 37 %
Philipot: 33 %
PS,...: 30 %

Ile de France

Pécresse: 35 %
Bartelone: 23 %
FN: 17 %
EELV: 8 %
Dupont-Aignan: 8 %
FG: 5 %
PCF: 2 %

Second turn:

Pécresse: 41 %
Bartelone: 39 %
FN: 20 %


For the rest, BVA says that Bretagne (!), Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes et Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées will stay at left and that Centre-Val de Loire, Pays de la Loire et Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes will turn to right.

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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2015, 02:58:11 PM »

BVA has apparently polled all regions, which is quite nice, even if it's not the best pollster.

Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine

Philippe Richert (LR-UDI-MoDem) 31% - incumbent president, Alsace
Florian Philippot (FN) 30%
Jean-Pierre Masseret (PS-PRG) 19% - incumbent president, Lorraine
Patrick Perron (FG) 7%
Sandrine Bélier (EELV) 6%
Unser Land 3%
DLF 2.5%
LO 1%
UPR 0.5%

Philippe Richert (LR-UDI-MoDem) 37%
Florian Philippot (FN) 33%
Jean-Pierre Masseret (PS-PRG) 30%

Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes

Alain Rousset (PS-PRG) 36% - incumbent president, Aquitaine
Virginie Calmels (LR-UDI-MoDem) 30%
Jacques Colombier (FN) 20%
Olivier Dartigolles (PCF) 5%
Françoise Coutant (EELV) 5%
DLF 2%
FD 1%
LO 1%

Alain Rousset (PS-PRG) 46%
Virginie Calmels (LR-UDI-MoDem) 33%
Jacques Colombier (FN) 21%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes

Laurent Wauquiez (LR-UDI-MoDem) 35%
Jean-Jack Queyranne (PS-PRG) 24% - incumbent president, R-A
Christophe Boudot (FN) 21.5%
Jean-Charles Kolhaas (EELV-PG-ND) 8.5%
Cécile Cukierman (PCF) 7%
DLF 2%
LO 2%

Laurent Wauquiez (LR-UDI-MoDem) 40%
Jean-Jack Queyranne (PS-PRG) 37%
Christophe Boudot (FN) 23%

Bourgogne-Franche-Comté

François Sauvadet (UDI-LR) 31%
Sophie Montel (FN) 26%
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS-PRG-Cap21/Ecolos) 19% - incumbent president, Franche-Comté
FG-Ensemble-MRC-ND 8%
Christophe Grudler (MoDem) 6%
Cécile Prudhomme (EELV) 5%
DLF 3%
LO 2%

François Sauvadet (UDI-LR) 36%
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS-PRG-Cap21/Ecolos) 34%
Sophie Montel (FN) 30%

Breizh

Marc Le Fur (LR-UDI-MoDem) 30%
Jean-Yves Le Drian (PS-PRG) 26% - former president, defence minister
Gilles Pennelle (FN) 16%
Christian Troadec (Oui, la Bretagne/MBP-UDB) 9%
René Louail (EELV) 7%
FG 4%
DLF 2.5%
RCB 2%
PB-Separatists 1%
LO 1%
Breizhistance-NPA 1%
UPR 0.5%

Jean-Yves Le Drian (PS-PRG) 46%
Marc Le Fur (LR-UDI-MoDem) 36%
Gilles Pennelle (FN) 18%

I'll continue the rest of the regions at some other time.
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2015, 05:12:53 PM »

It's interesting that three member run-offs are going to be the norm, apparently.
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Zanas
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2015, 10:53:11 AM »

The numbers in Bretagne and APoiL (or ALPC, or Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes, but APoiL is way funnier) stick out as vastly overestimating the left. If the left really were to get 46% in Bretagne in the runoff, they would probably keep ALPC, LRMP, IdF and perhaps 2 or 3 other ones.

Realistically, though, LRMP and ALPC are in touch for the left, Bretagne could go down to be a nailbiter, everything else leans right, except the North which leans FN, but turnout in the runoff could still be a game-changer there.
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2015, 05:37:07 PM »

Christian Estrosi, the "Republican" candidate in PACA, has reached an unparalleled level of idiocy - even taking account that Estrosi has always been a moron and that this is a party with some of the dumbest people alive: http://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/elections-regionales-2015-christian-estrosi-veut-interdire-le-sigle-paca-7780400403

In short, this idiot wants to ban the use of the abbreviation 'PACA' in administrative document, impose a fine on people who pronounce 'PACA' and he concludes by saying that while some think the region should be called 'French California' he thinks that it's rather Californians who dream of being called Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur.
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Zanas
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« Reply #24 on: November 10, 2015, 02:57:32 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2015, 09:18:37 AM by Watermelon sin Jamón »

Odoxa poll for BFM, 11/8, for the new ACAL region (Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine) :
1er Tour :
FN : 32 %
Rep/Udi/Modem : 30 %
PS : 19 %
FG : 6,5 % (*)
EELV/FG : 6 % (*)
DLF : 2,5 %
Autres : 4 %

(*) sic, though there is a "pure" EELV list and a "pure" FG list in this region, contrary to other regions where the situation is more mixed, but pollsters are morons.

2nd Tour :
Rep/Udi/Modem : 37 %
FN : 35 %
PS : 28 %

My 2 cents : PS and FG feel too high, 17 % and 4.5 % respectively would seem more realistic. The rest of the first round seems OK. Others include a patchwork list that's AEI (centre-right ecologists) in Champagne-Ardenne, AEI-DIV in Lorraine, and Unser Land (right-wing autonom-independentists) in Alsace, that doesn't seem to be gaining much traction (my guess would be 2 % regionally, with 5-6% in Alsace).

For the runoff, I would bet that we could witness a "Forbach effect" of sort, with abstentionists from the first round waking up to defeat the FN, and PS voters switching to LR to do the same. I would bet on :
UD 41%
FN 35 %
PS 24 %
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