Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

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What should Harper be wearing?

A Niqab?

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Anybody been checking Threehundredeight lately?   Parkdale-High Park going Liberal?  Yeah, not going to happen Eric.  That Trudeau hard on this guy has, though.

He has Parkdale going Liberal? Jesus. Word to the wise: don't pay attention to him, at all.

Probably not, but the last 2 or 3 sub polls of Ontario do show a 5% or so swing from the NDP to the Liberals and the Liberals picking up another 3% or so from the Conservatives. 

My guess is he's just using a computer point system to determine who is likely to win each riding which may be as useful and accurate as the FIFA rankings.

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All Canadian pollsters are garbage. Everybody calm down.

Except for the firm Hatman works for!

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Tory candidates' failures now include racist stereotypes about First Nations peoples

This has graduated from disappointing into sad.

I don't believe I mentioned this here, but I mentioned it to an NDP scientist businessperson I know who ran a couple times for the party who is very concerned about the "Christian right" in the Conservative Party.  I pointed out that Mark MacDonald had a number of associations with right wing Christian organizations but they mostly ended about 15 years or so ago, but that he was better known recently in Nanaimo for writing a number of anti native editorials in the right wing newspaper the Nanaimo Daily News.

This would have been extremely easy for the Conservative Party candidate reviewers to find as when I googled "Mark MacDonald" and "Nanaimo" an article the republished excerpts from some of those editorials was the top link.

So, I assume the Conservative Party was fully aware of these editorials and has no problem with them.  To be sure,  MacDonald has been a somewhat prominent person in the Vancouver Island business community and they may have been willing to overlook these past comments.  It still pretty much confirms the lack of interest the Conservatives have in courting the native community.

To those who would say "Natives don't vote Conservative" I would note Leona Aglukuk as well as, although going back a number of years and not federal, the right wing Yukon Party defeated the NDP government of Piers MacDonald in something of an upset on the strength of getting a surprisingly large share of the Native Vote.

Liberal nominee Joy Davies in South Surrey-White Rock also stepped down today over a couple year old tweets that praised marijuana in ways that aren't backed by evidence and, possibly more importantly for attacking the pharmaceutical associations.  

Davies also had a record of mixed success.  On the upside, she was a well respected retired business owner and executive who had a prominent position in academia as the former Chair of a business department at Vancouver Community College.  On the downside, she handily lost reelection recently in Grand Forks to their city council, and if a marijuana advocate can't get reelected in Grand Forks of all places, what does that say about her?

After retiring from business and being involuntary retired from municipal politics, she became the B.C Director of an advocacy group named something like the Medical Cannabis Partners.  The Federal Liberals support legalization of marijuana, so her background with that isn't a big deal for them, but her position should have raised red flags in that many marijuana promoters seem to also tend to be believers of things about marijuana that don't have much scientific evidence behind them.

I would also add that her comments about the Pharmaceutical associations may reflect the paranoia of marijuana users, but, in addition of not knowing whether Joy Davies herself uses marijuana, it would also reflect stereotypes about marijuana users.

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I believe I've made this same point here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/frank-koller/stephen-harper-not-economist_b_8104870.html

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If Nikki Ashton loses in Churchill,  I'll eat Paddy Ashdown's hat.

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Dogwood Initiative is out with some more fun (*dubious) constituency-level polling -- this time from British Columbia!

In Courtenay-Alberni, the NDP narrowly leads the Conservatives, 30-25.
In Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, the NDP is far ahead of the Conservatives, 31-16.
In Burnaby-North Seymour, the NDP narrowly leads the Conservatives, 28-25.
In Vancouver South, the Liberals lead the Conservatives, 29-20.
In North Vancouver, the Liberals lead the Conservatives, 33-25.
In South Okanagan-West Kootenay, the NDP leads the Conservatives, 31-24.
In West Vancouver..., the Liberals narrowly lead the Conservatives and NDP in a three-way race, 28-25-18.

Some notes:
- More than 10% separates first from third in every riding but West Vancouver. This suggests that some may be voting tactically.
- Although the Greens have star candidates in North Vancouver and West Vancouver, they are not doing particularly well there, at 9-10%. Their best riding of these 7, far and away, is Esquimalt..., where they are at 15% and within the margin of error for second place.
- There is still plenty of time for someone to break out. There are >20% undecided in every riding but West Vancouver..., which is at 18%.

Dogwood Initiative may have paid for the poll, but it was done by Insights West which is a credible firm.

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Sleazy Conservative mailer.  Trying to frighten Canadians.  Could they be any more disgusting?

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I can only imagine the oddness of a scenario in which he loses his own seat, but the Liberals make gains elsewhere.

Ask Christy Clark.

That's not correct.  Their was virtually no change in the gap between the NDP and the Liberals in the 2009 and 2013 elections,

The NDP gained one other seat in Vancouver and one inner suburban riding in Burnaby and the Victoria sort of suburban riding of Saanich North and the Islands while the Liberals won over several New Democrats or NDP open seats in the outer suburbs (one Surrey riding, one Delta riding) and some interior riding.

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A result that close probably means another election very soon again.

Could also mean a stable NDP-Liberal government, if not a formal coalition.

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A result that close probably means another election very soon again.

Doubt it. No one wants to be seen as responsible for forcing another election. At this occasion the probable outcome will be a coalition, where both the Liberals and NDP do all they could to be seen as equals. It would last its full term, because the only thing keeping it together will be hatred of you-know-who.

And the fact that the NDP under Mulcair and the Liberals under Trudeau are in close agreement on probably 90% of the issues.

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There's no love or trust between Mulcair and Trudeau. It would be too fragile of a coalition.

There isn't much of a history of coalitions in Canada and I'm not familiar with much of the rest of the world in that regard, but the closest comparison would probably be Finance Ministers and Premiers or Prime Ministers who did not get along, but worked together for many years.

The most famous would be Paul Martin and Jean Chretien. Yes, they eventually split, and I don't know if they didn't get along initially, but they worked together very well for a fair number of years after they had a major falling out.

Same thing with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in the U.K.

A not quite exact quote from Yes, Minister  "The official opposition are your official enemies, your real enemies are your cabinet rivals... errr colleagues."

Nearly all politicians, especially those in power, have no problem putting aside personal differences for long periods of time.

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Harper slams Justin Trudeau for 'lack of understanding of business.' F-35 will cost at least $45 billion over its lifetime for Canada and the Conservatives say that Canada can pick up $10 billion in business from F-35 program (actual signed contracts for the F-35 are $600 million and there is no interest from any other country in the world at this point.)

A replacement fighter plane would cost maybe half of the F-35 over its life.

This is what the Conservatives tout as having 'business acumen?'

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If Sleazy Stevie isn't allowed (and it's a perfectly apt desciption of that thing) then neither should the term "Justin" for Justin Trudeau be allowed.

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If Sleazy Stevie isn't allowed (and it's a perfectly apt desciption of that thing) then neither should the term "Justin" for Justin Trudeau be allowed.

lol go away. you literally offer no real contributions in this thread.

If I offer no real contribution, then disprove me on this:
Harper Sleazy Stevie slams Justin Trudeau for 'lack of understanding of business.' F-35 will cost at least $45 billion over its lifetime for Canada and the Conservatives say that Canada can pick up $10 billion in business from F-35 program (actual signed contracts for the F-35 are $600 million and there is no interest from any other country in the world at this point.)

A replacement fighter plane would cost maybe half of the F-35 over its life.

This is what the Conservatives tout as having 'business acumen?'

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Insights West Poll of B.C
NDP: 34% -7
Con: 28% +6
Lib: 26% +2
Green: 11% -1
http://www.insightswest.com/news/smaller-lead-for-ndp-as-tories-gain-ground-in-british-columbia/

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A Winnipeg area NDP candidate has resigned over comparing Orthodox Jews to the Taliban

Don't the Orthodox Jews refuse to allow women to pray at the Wailing Wall?  I'd say that's one example of them being Taliban light.

http://msmagazine.com/blog/2013/08/05/misogyny-at-the-wailing-wall/

It's actually the Ultra Orthodox, but I can completely understand a non Jew not knowing the distinction between the Ultra Orthodox and the Orthodox.  

From the article: "Here, a woman is being arrested for reading from the Torah, something men are doing freely only a few feet away."

If that isn't exactly the same as how the Taliban regard women, I don't know what is.

Here is another example, so this isn't just restricted to prayer:  Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Sect In London Bans Women From Driving
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/29/hasidic-ban-women-driving_n_7469744.html

The reasoning is even the same as given by the Taliban: "The letter, signed by rabbis from the Belz Hasidic sect in Stamford Hill and sent last week to parents in the community, says that female drivers are a violation of “the traditional rules of modesty in our camp."

I don't know if that represents the views of all the Ultra Orthodox Jews, but it certainly is an example of one sect having the exact same views as the Taliban.

To be sure, the Ultra Orthodox don't want to stop girls from attending school, and there are no doubt other differences between them and the Taliban, but there seem to be enough points of similarity to make the comparison completely valid.

This strikes me as the same amount of cowardice as the B.C NDP showed some 20 years ago when they dropped a candidate from running in a byelection because he was a Wiccan.

I'm not even sure had they kept him on it would have hurt the NDP even among Jews. I can speak from experience that a lot of us secular Jews and even many Orthodox Jews don't care for the religious extremism of the Ultra Orthodox Jews.  Of course much of this stems from Israel, where the Ultra Orthodox had for a long time received special treatment due to the favors they won because of the Israel form of PR.

Edit:  The former candidate, Stefan Jonasson, is a Unitarian Minister and he absolutely knew the difference between the Orthodox Jews and the Ultra Orthodox.  It was a journalist who used the two interchangeably, apparently not knowing there is a huge difference between the two.  Orthodox Jews are mainstream while most of the Ultra Orthodox are religious extremists, though I don't believe they are all sexist as this Ultra Orthodox sect obviously is.

From a comment on the Globe and Mail article on this.  This is the most up voted comment on the article:


sagavir1 1 hour ago
I'm Jewish,have spent time in Israel and taught in Jerusalem, and not only do I agree with the candidate's comparison of the Haredim with the Taliban in terms of attitudes towards women, democracy, and gays and lesbians, I encountered many Israelis who feel the same way about the Haredim. It's a very defensible comparison and I'm disappointed that the NDP did not stand by this candidate. Has the party of principle become the party of pandering?

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, Jews who speak negatively about other Jews tend to be popular among many non-Jews. Always extremely revealing.

I'm sure many members of the German NPD will agree with the comments of the Canadian NDP guy. Always the same trick, considering the moronic ideas of some crazy, utterly insignificant Hasidic sect suddenly representative for all Haredim. Shows that people, both non-Jews and assimilated Jews, are still so much - unconsciously - inclined to believe negative things about Ashkenazi Jews who are not assimilated and who dress "stereotypical". Good that the guy had to step down.
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The last thing we need is a religion debate spinning this thread off topic. If you which to continue this discussion, do so in another thread on the appropriate board, and keep this thread on topic. Thank you.

I recognize this, but as the comment was addressed to me, I'd like to respond here.

1.I'm Jewish myself which I said in my first comment, albeit a secular Jew, and to the degree that I have any religious views it would be leaning towards being a Messianic Jew mainly because I in no way want to be associated with the God of the OT.

2.The commentator on the G and M website said that many Israeli non Ultra Orthodox Jews agreed with her, so dislike of some of the Ultra Orthodox is far more than just with non Jews.  To be sure, you may have a point that the Ultra Orthodox are more varied in their views than they are given credit for, I'm not sure myself what it's supposed to be revealing of.

3.If this sect and other Ultra Orthodox Jews who agree with them are as small as you claim, then how, as I posted a link to above, did they manage to push through laws that prevent women from praying on most of the Wailing Wall and how did they manage to get laws past that criminalize women from doing things at the Wailing Wall that men are allowed to do. I know the vagaries of the Israeli PR system and all that, but it takes more than a tiny number to get vile, sexist laws like those passed.

Anyway, if you are interested, I would appreciate a response in an appropriate thread.  Merely post a link to it here.

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Ivison on Tory Maritime woes.

Wouldn't surprise me to see the Tories in the Maritimes reduced to just three rural New Brunswick seats.

I would expect the Conservatives to hold on to Central Nova. 

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I'm starting to wonder if this is what our elections are going to be from now on; a constant stream of micro-scandals about individual candidates who said something stupid on the internet years prior.

I'm just imagining 25 years down the road, some politician having to resign after someone discovers he wrote "fuk u faget" in a  youtube comment when he was 12.

Well, there goes your viability as a candidate.

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Why do Canadian politicians get in so much trouble for social media posts? That basically never happens here (unless they're sending nudes on Twitter or something). Are Canadian politicians significantly younger than American ones or something?

Not all the candidates who end up in trouble are young. That said, the U.S does have minimum age requirements in running federally, so that could be a factor.  I believe the minimum age to run for the House of Representatives is only 25, but there are very few who run for that body who are under 30.

There could also be factors regarding the need to raise so much money to be seen as a serious candidate in the U.S. It's possible that the major donors to a candidate will have done a great deal of the vetting that the parties are supposed to do here.  

It also should not be forgotten that nearly all of the candidates here who have gotten into trouble were candidates who didn't have a serious chance to win the riding.  So, many of them got the nomination by acclamation.  In the case of the Liberal candidate in Victoria (which was not to long ago a Liberal riding, but the battle there now is solely between the Greens and the NDP), the nominee there who just stepped down, defeated for the Liberal nomination a likely even more potentially controversial candidate, Adam Stirling, who had been an, I believe, somewhat provocative radio talk show host for a number of years.

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What would be likely to happen if the result is like Con 36, Lib 33, NDP 26, the Tories don't have a majority, and Lib/NDP would have a majority? Conservative minority (trainwreck) government, Liberal minority government with outside NDP support, or a Lib-NDP coalition?

Harper will most likely resign. Mulcair will also probably resign, since the leftists in the NDP will blame his move to the centre for allowing the Liberals to steal their natural supporters.

Which leaves Trudeau as the undisputed Prime Minister. He would take full advantage of the NDP's troubles to keep it divided.

Assuming the Liberals then keep their promise to introduce Alternative Voting, they would be in a good shape to become, again, the Natural Governing Party. In any case, it would become mathematically impossible for a Harper-like politician who is openly disdainful towards the majority to get elected.

A few things with that;

I'm not so sure Mulcair would resign in that case, and personally don't think he should resign. Familiar opposition leaders tend to do better than new ones, and, especially in a minority government, having a familiar, well regarded leader is something that would benefit the NDP.

As an example, after Stephen Harper lost the 2004 election in what was seen as a big disappointment, he continued on, become PM, and now his familiarity has become a big strong point.

I also doubt AV/IRV would kill Harper or the Conservatives so thoroughly. They would just adjust, and make a stronger play for second preferences. The right-wing Liberals in Australia do fine under AV/IRV.

Thoughtful Cynic's point wasn't that Mulcair would resign for losing the election, or even that he would want to resign, it's that he effectively would be pushed out by the NDP's left wing.  It's hard to argue with that at this point.

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Don't NDP leaders tend to stick around forever?

Audrey McLaughlin left following the 1993 election which was her only kick at the can.  Alexa McDonough led the NDP for both the 1997 and 2000 elections, but she likely only stayed on after 1997 thanks to securing an NDP breakthrough in the Atlantic.

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Don't NDP leaders tend to stick around forever?

Audrey McLaughlin left following the 1993 election which was her only kick at the can.  Alexa McDonough led the NDP for both the 1997 and 2000 elections, but she likely only stayed on after 1997 thanks to securing an NDP breakthrough in the Atlantic.

McLaghlin also led the party from its best showing to its worst and lost over 3/4 of the party's votes and seats. Mulcair, barring a complete collapse in the next 2.5 weeks, looks at worst to still pull in around 100 seats, and a result that's only disappointing compared to the beginning of the campaign, and quite good compared to even just a few months ago.

McLaughlin wasn't really to blame. She actually ran a pretty good campaign.

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Dueling polls with Angus Reid and Forum.  Consistent numbers for NDP at 26-27%, but Liberals Conservatives at odds in polls.

Nanos Research Libs 33.5%, Cons 31.9%, NDP 25.9%
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151001%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

Leger Marketing Libs: 32%, Cons: 30%, NDP: 26%
http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/suivson_can_2015210.pdf

Quebec is in Canada, they should speak English!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_2015#Opinion_polls

Leger poll has B.Q at 24% in Quebec.  I said on a facebook post to a former NDP candidate a couple days ago that the Niqab demagoging had the chance to bite the Cons. Harper has always been proud that on his watch the seperatist threat has virtually disappeared.  Once that raised this issue, it was not a surprise that Francophone Quebecers (most aside from the Quebec City region) would take a look at the Con position and regard it as 'too moderate,' and say that 'if the Niqab is a problem, banning it only at citizenship ceremonies does nothing to address that problem' and cast aside the Cons for the more hardline position of the B.Q.

This is likely why Pierre Polievre, the unemployable Minister of Employment was musing yesterday that, if reelected, the Cons might extend the ban on the Niqab to federal jobs and the like.

Nevertheless, as most Francophone Quebecers outside of the Quebec City region don't care much for the Cons, I think those who are concerned about this issue are still far more likely to support the B.Q.

Once the B.Q are back in Ottawa, who knows what they can do to revive their Provincial cousins or do to raise seperatism again.

It would be bad for Canada to see this issue back, but it couldn't happen to a more deserving person.