Predict the Democratic primary result in each NYC borough
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  Predict the Democratic primary result in each NYC borough
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Author Topic: Predict the Democratic primary result in each NYC borough  (Read 1078 times)
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: April 19, 2016, 10:05:54 PM »
« edited: April 19, 2016, 10:09:06 PM by King of Kensington »

Result (Hlllary, Bernie):

Bronx 70-30
Brooklyn 60-40
Manhattan 66-34
Queens 61-39
Staten Island 53-47

Guess I underestimated the hipster/early gentrifier vote in Brooklyn a bit (I said Hillary would get 65%) and was insufficiently skeptical of Bernie's chances in Manhattan (I said Hillary would get 62%).  And was wrong to think Hillary would do better in Brooklyn than Manhattan.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: April 19, 2016, 10:44:47 PM »

Manhattan: Clinton 67%, Sanders 32%
The Bronx: Clinton 67%, Sanders 32%
Brooklyn: Clinton 59%, Sanders 40%
Queens: Clinton 61%, Sanders 38%
Staten Island: Clinton 56%, Sanders 43%

As we saw in the Boston metro area, affluent left-liberal voters will vote Clinton at rates approaching the vote share that she will receive among Latinos/African-Americans, which won't be nearly as high in New York as we think. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the UES/UWS give Hillary a higher proportion of the vote than, say, Harlem.

Brooklyn will be very interesting. My hunch is that the rapid gentrification of the borough will result in some strange results, particularly in quarters of the city that are just beginning to gentrify, where pioneer gentrifiers will give Sanders close to 90% of the vote and the original residents give him 30%. So there might be a few census tracks that appear to be entirely non-white that vote for Sanders for this reason.

I will now accept my accolades!

Crown me King of New York!!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #27 on: April 19, 2016, 10:52:44 PM »

Why not.

Bronx: 70-30 Clinton
Brooklyn: 61-39 Clinton
Manhattan: 63-37 Clinton
Queens: 58-42 Clinton
Staten Island: 54-46 Clinton

Not bad
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