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seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

Palm Beach might only be a 1-4% Biden win this time around. Jews and non-Mexican Hispanics are groups he is losing ground with and plenty located here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

I live in Palm Beach county, while I don’t see Trump winning this county yet, I’m quite sure there would be a considerable shift to the GOP. The county commission just flipped to 4R3D last 2022 elections, before that it was 6D1R!

Even Jared Moskowitz lost the Palm Beach county portion of Florida 23rd last elections.

So Broward County bailed out Moskowitz in 2022 alone then?

Trump got 43 % I think in Palm Beach in 2020. I agree he won't win it but how much do you think he is going to get there? 45 %, 46%?

probably 47% at most. Democrats still hold registration advantage in this county but it’s dwindling fast. To be honest I’m quite surprised DeSantis won here in 2022 and Rubio came close to winning it. But the overall climate for DEMS here in South Florida doesn’t bode well this November.

Trump nor his supporters are smart enough to end Democracy, thankfully.

I'm guessing this includes data from the 2020 primary, since Biden's biggest drop offs are in his home state and in states with competitive primaries in 2020. New Hampshire is the exception, and that was a state where Biden was not competitive in the primary.

Yeah SC and IA in particular really stand out in this reguard.

I also wonder if in SC Nikki Haley could be any sort of factor - perhaps some anti-Trump Republicans who supported Biden in 2020 instead chose to give money to Nikki Haley in her primary against Trump?

[political realignment.]

"Folks, we're having another political realignment."

Elections with incumbents aren’t realignments. 2016, 2008, and 2000 were realignments. 2020, 2012, and 2004 were not. If you look at trend maps for the former 3, you see stronger regional and statewide shifts than in the latter 3.

I think it should be more concerning Trump has opened up very few campaign offices even in the main swing states.

Campaign offices aren’t part of the TRUMP campaign priorities. Campaign offices are a Bill Clinton-era holdover, aka something consultants have convinced campaign managers are necessary without much proof of their usefulness at the presidential level.

TRUMP is dominating earned media, meeting voters where they are. And that’s social media for young people and cable news for old people. Biden is hoping his pre-internet campaign can squeeze out enough college-educated women, but again, he’s relying on old campaign tactics.

Campaign offices play a key role in ground campaign which I would argue is still very important today - even with modern technologies and mass media. In 2020 for instance, there were clear consequences of not having ground campaigns, especially in black communities in key states which were some of the only communities to see turnout declines 2016-->2020.

What would likely happen in the least extreme scenario is that gun-friendly banks and credit card companies would open to counter this.

[political realignment.]

"Folks, we're having another political realignment."

Analysts are starting to talk about Minnesota like a battleground state. Was Biden’s primary performance a sign of things to come?

Donald Trump had a weaker primary performance in MN than Biden did.

Joe Biden is the incumbent, not Trump. And Haley had far more $$$ than Biden’s challengers.

He could serve a third term, but not be elected a third time.

There is a theory he (or Obama, Clinton, GW Bush) could be elected VP and have a sock puppet at the top of the ticket who immediately resigns.

This language in the 12th Amendment seems quite clear:

But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

It's an extreme stretch to suggest that this would let someone get around the 22nd Amendment using that scheme.  I can't see the Supreme Court (even the current one) allowing it after the inevitable challenge.

Trump had a wonderful time in San Jose, CA back in 2016.

Hillary had some good times in North Carolina and Arizona, since the Blue Wall was holding and the tipping point state of note was safely in her court.