MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Heisenberg]

Jonathan Martin @jmartNYT
Hear two issues are holding up @HawleyMO Sen bid: real family concerns & trepidation running for Sen could upend future SCOTUS prospects

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/885228892365127680

Why would he think he could be SCOTUS?  Run for Senate man.

Yeah, Trump likely won't pick him, he's not on either of the two lists (though his philosophy is just like a judge on the list), but him being an elected official with no experience on a state or federal bench, that could make the hearings tougher. Also, if his dream job is SCOTUS, you don't contemplate running for Senate AND make that clear. That's not how it works, it makes it sound like he's climbing up he same ladder he used in his attack ads. Anyway, I hope all is well with the Hawley family.

[RogueBeaver]

Hawley could decide by early next month.

[MarkD]

An explorer.
State Representative Paul Curtman, House District 109 in the exurbs of St. Louis. Term limited, he can't run again for his state house seat, and the next two higher seats to possibly run for - state senate and U.S. House - are not plausible options (incumbent Republicans).
"Today, we begin exploring a candidacy for federal office because our state and our nation cannot afford 6 more years of Senator McCaskill," (July 13, 2017 tweet).

[_]

An explorer.
State Representative Paul Curtman, House District 109 in the exurbs of St. Louis. Term limited, he can't run again for his state house seat, and the next two higher seats to possibly run for - state senate and U.S. House - are not plausible options (incumbent Republicans).
"Today, we begin exploring a candidacy for federal office because our state and our nation cannot afford 6 more years of Senator McCaskill," (July 13, 2017 tweet).

Well he looks alright.

[Heisenberg]

An explorer.
State Representative Paul Curtman, House District 109 in the exurbs of St. Louis. Term limited, he can't run again for his state house seat, and the next two higher seats to possibly run for - state senate and U.S. House - are not plausible options (incumbent Republicans).
"Today, we begin exploring a candidacy for federal office because our state and our nation cannot afford 6 more years of Senator McCaskill," (July 13, 2017 tweet).

Well he looks alright.

Is he particularly well-known? Or is he just 1 of 163? The MO House is one of the biggest legislative chambers, but it will be reduced in a few years, IIRC. EDIT: Never mind.

[MarkD]

An explorer.
State Representative Paul Curtman, House District 109 in the exurbs of St. Louis. Term limited, he can't run again for his state house seat, and the next two higher seats to possibly run for - state senate and U.S. House - are not plausible options (incumbent Republicans).
"Today, we begin exploring a candidacy for federal office because our state and our nation cannot afford 6 more years of Senator McCaskill," (July 13, 2017 tweet).

Well he looks alright.

Is he particularly well-known? Or is he just 1 of 163? The MO House is one of the biggest legislative chambers.

He's not as obscure as most of the 163. I have been reading about Curtman in the St. Louis news a number of times in the last 4 years. He's been pretty good at getting the attention of, and being quoted by, the St. Louis media. I can't say whether he's as well-known around the rest of the state.

EDIT: Whoa.
One of his videos in that website has him going into a dubious re-interpretation of the word "inalienable" in the Declaration of Independence. He says the actual word used in the Declaration was not "inalienable," but "un-a-LIEN-a-ble." He emphasizes that the middle syllable of the word is "lien," using the example of a local government placing a lien on your property, thus prohibiting you from selling it or building on it. "Un-a-LIEN-a-ble" rights are those rights which government cannot "place a hold on." Listen to the unusual way he pronounces the word.

[_]

An explorer.
State Representative Paul Curtman, House District 109 in the exurbs of St. Louis. Term limited, he can't run again for his state house seat, and the next two higher seats to possibly run for - state senate and U.S. House - are not plausible options (incumbent Republicans).
"Today, we begin exploring a candidacy for federal office because our state and our nation cannot afford 6 more years of Senator McCaskill," (July 13, 2017 tweet).

Well he looks alright.

Is he particularly well-known? Or is he just 1 of 163? The MO House is one of the biggest legislative chambers.

He's not as obscure as most of the 163. I have been reading about Curtman in the St. Louis news a number of times in the last 4 years. He's been pretty good at getting the attention of, and being quoted by, the St. Louis media. I can't say whether he's as well-known around the rest of the state.

EDIT: Whoa.
One of his videos in that website has him going into a dubious re-interpretation of the word "inalienable" in the Declaration of Independence. He says the actual word used in the Declaration was not "inalienable," but "un-a-LIEN-a-ble." He emphasizes that the middle syllable of the word is "lien," using the example of a local government placing a lien on your property, thus prohibiting you from selling it or building on it. "Un-a-LIEN-a-ble" rights are those rights which government cannot "place a hold on." Listen to the unusual way he pronounces the word.

Oh no I see where he's going with this...

[Young Conservative]

Ideologically, can anyone find out where Josh Hawley stands? Younger Republicans like him are generally more conservative, so I hope he adheres to that rule.

He could definitely be a rising star. He is only 37 and is already being urged by the VP and big money to run for senate- that's impressive.

[MT Treasurer]

If Hawley declines to run, Eric Schmitt might become the new "front-runner".

[Fudotei]

You can't rely on being picked for the Supreme Court and while I'd say Hawley is qualified to be on the court, he can't assume that. People have wanted to put Tribe on the court practically since John Marshall died. Orrin Hatch wanted to be put on (he's now, what, 85?). And Bork.

Plus there's nothing saying you can't be a senator and be selected onto the court. Earl Warren was the Vice Presidential nominee and then was put as Chief Justice.

If there's real family problems (which is odd considering he just got elected Attorney General, which is still sizeable) then that's his own situation.

If I were him I'd run -- Eric Schmitt will lose and the one state representative needs to run for mayor or something, not US Senate -- but that's his decision to make.

Hawley-McCaskill leans R. He's a good public speaker.

[Kamala]

I doubt we'll be seeing the same "McCaskill funds the primary opponent most beatable" strategy again. It was innovative in 2012 but people know McCaskill will do it now, and so it's easy to make a counter ad (by Hawley or something) saying "Vicky Hartzler has support from this 'conservative' PAC. But it's actually funded by Senator McCaskill. McCaskill's lying again" and so on.

Trump's still fairly popular in Missouri, as I recall, so I still think this will be a big ol' money fight.

Maybe McCaskill can reverse-McCaskill Hawley by donating to him...

[Kingpoleon]

Ideologically, can anyone find out where Josh Hawley stands? Younger Republicans like him are generally more conservative, so I hope he adheres to that rule.

He could definitely be a rising star. He is only 37 and is already being urged by the VP and big money to run for senate- that's impressive.

Um, no. According to the polls, younger Republicans are generally more likely to be pro-choice and pro-SSM.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

(move if in wrong spot)

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2017/06/29/fcc-lifeline-subsidized-phone-program-audit.html Based on this article, and other factors. Do you believe she is a moderate or a liberal?

[Coraxion]

A moderate. But she (along with Tester) is one of the more liberal of the red state Dems.

[President Johnson]

A moderate. But she (along with Tester) is one of the more liberal of the red state Dems.

This. But it's sometimes difficult to make a clear separation between these liberal/moderate/conservative labels. It may differ from issue to issue. I would label myself as a pragmatic liberal/progressive, but would usually be classified as moderate on economic and fiscal issues.

[smoltchanov]

(move if in wrong spot)

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2017/06/29/fcc-lifeline-subsidized-phone-program-audit.html Based on this article, and other factors. Do you believe she is a moderate or a liberal?

Moderate liberal or, at least - left-of-center. "Modrerate" (by my standards, which were formed in 1970th)  is Manchin. And even him is slightly left-of-center. I laugh when he is called a "conservative": the people who write this never saw such Democrats as James Eastland or James Allen (i will not even mention  Bob Stump or John Rarick - that's what REALLY can be called "a conservative")

[MarkD]

But it's sometimes difficult to make a clear separation between these liberal/moderate/conservative labels. It may differ from issue to issue. I would label myself as a pragmatic liberal/progressive, but would usually be classified as moderate on economic and fiscal issues.

I agree. Ideology exists in a spectrum, not in three neat cubby holes.

McCaskill is in between a liberal and a moderate. I gauge the ideology of a member of Congress by using an average of their approval scores from Americans for Democratic Action and American Conservative Union. McCaskill's average score from Americans for Democratic Action (for the first nine years she's been in the Senate - 2007 to 2015, inclusive (for some reason ADA has not yet released their scores for the year 2016)) is 81.1% while her average score from American Conservative Union (for the first ten years in the Senate) is 12.2%.

[Xing]

She's more moderate than the average Democrat in Congress, but conservatives will probably see her as a liberal.

[smoltchanov]

But it's sometimes difficult to make a clear separation between these liberal/moderate/conservative labels. It may differ from issue to issue. I would label myself as a pragmatic liberal/progressive, but would usually be classified as moderate on economic and fiscal issues.

I agree. Ideology exists in a spectrum, not in three neat cubby holes.

McCaskill is in between a liberal and a moderate. I gauge the ideology of a member of Congress by using an average of their approval scores from Americans for Democratic Action and American Conservative Union. McCaskill's average score from Americans for Democratic Action (for the first nine years she's been in the Senate - 2007 to 2015, inclusive (for some reason ADA has not yet released their scores for the year 2016)) is 81.1% while her average score from American Conservative Union (for the first ten years in the Senate) is 12.2%.

While "typical moderate" would have score approximately in 35-65 range)))))) But there are very few such congressmen (and even simply - elected officials) now.

[Santander]

She is a liberal. She's not the most left-wing Democrat in the Senate, but she's still liberal.

[windjammer]

She's a liberal, that's why I like her but that's why her seat could flip too.

[Classic Conservative]

Ideologically, can anyone find out where Josh Hawley stands? Younger Republicans like him are generally more conservative, so I hope he adheres to that rule.

He could definitely be a rising star. He is only 37 and is already being urged by the VP and big money to run for senate- that's impressive.

Um, no. According to the polls, younger Republicans are generally more likely to be pro-choice and pro-SSM.

Pro-SSM, yeah. Pro-choice, not really.

[Heisenberg]

Ideologically, can anyone find out where Josh Hawley stands? Younger Republicans like him are generally more conservative, so I hope he adheres to that rule.

He could definitely be a rising star. He is only 37 and is already being urged by the VP and big money to run for senate- that's impressive.

Um, no. According to the polls, younger Republicans are generally more likely to be pro-choice and pro-SSM.

Pro-SSM, yeah. Pro-choice, not really.

I think he meant more fiscally conservative?

[SATW]

Ideologically, can anyone find out where Josh Hawley stands? Younger Republicans like him are generally more conservative, so I hope he adheres to that rule.

He could definitely be a rising star. He is only 37 and is already being urged by the VP and big money to run for senate- that's impressive.

Um, no. According to the polls, younger Republicans are generally more likely to be pro-choice and pro-SSM.

wrong.

[SATW]

She is a liberal. She's not the most left-wing Democrat in the Senate, but she's still liberal.

This.