Partisan advantages for state governors, 2012-2016, by margin

[pbrower2a]

PPP. Maine

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No need for a change in the map.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/michaud-leads-in-maine-gubernatorial-race.html

Even Maine has its Neanderthal  voters (whoops, Neanderthal Man had a large cranial capacity!)... I mean bird-brained (whoops -- birds are incredibly efficient in their use of their brains, with crows and parrots rivaling dogs in intelligence)... reptilian?  Sorry to insult any fans of turtles, chameleons, snakes, iguanas, skinks, and Komodo dragons there. OK, echinoderm, as I can't think of anyone keeping a pet starfish.  Well, it's a bad idea to say the absurd (Barack Obama hates white people) in a State that elected him  58-40 in 2008 and 56-41 in 2012.

[pbrower2a]

Raleigh, N.C. –
Ratings keep dropping for North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory, even in his own party. For the third month in a row, he has a net-negative approval rating- it’s at 35-53, down from last month’s rating of 39-51. 24% of Republicans say they disapprove.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_NC_912.pdf

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[pbrower2a]

In a stronger position than Shaheen though is Governor Maggie Hassan. She has a 51/33 approval rating, that's little different from 50/31 in April. That indicates her numbers haven't worn off after the honeymoon from her first getting into office. In addition to strong popularity with Democrats, Hassan's at 50/33 with independents and gets 17% crossover support from Republicans compared to Shaheen's 12%. - See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/09/shaheen-hassan-lead-for-reelection.html#more

.....

September 13-16, 2013, Wisconsin, PPP

Survey of 1,180 Wisconsin voters

information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

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[pbrower2a]

September 20-23, 2013
Survey of 616 Massachusetts voters

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What do you know? In binary numbers this is post #10000000000000.
Hex is much more compact, giving me only #2000 so far.

More prosaically, it is simply #8192.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MA_926.pdf

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[pbrower2a]

You know who and you know where with these numbers.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_FL_1001.pdf

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[pbrower2a]

This is from a Republican pollster on Governor Corbett in Pennsylvania:

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http://www.politicspa.com/spr-poll-corbett-approval-negative-58-33/51631/

Just when you think that nobody can outdo Rick Scott for a high level of disapproval, along comes this.

This is not a D-friendly pollster:

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[pbrower2a]

Maryland:

In the new poll, 48 percent say they approve of the job O’Malley (D) is doing — while an identical number say they disapprove.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/brown-tops-two-democratic-rivals-in-early-poll-in-marylands-2014-race-for-governor/2013/10/17/cab0d8ba-36c6-11e3-80c6-7e6dd8d22d8f_story.html

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[pbrower2a]

The survey showed Gov. Steve Bullock has solid support among Montanans. In all, 53 percent of respondents said they approved of his job performance and 14 percent disapproved.

Read more: http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/education/new-msub-poll-reveals-montanans-opposed-shutdown-disapprove-of-obama/article_00d85a5e-ae77-5b8d-958b-3d41052cc71e.html#ixzz2imQ3bAPc

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[pbrower2a]

Franklin&Marshall University polled Pennsylvania on the performance of Governor Tom Corbett.

Only one in five (19%) give him an 'excellent' or 'good' rating. Only 20% of all voters think that he has performed well enough to merit re-election. Others rate him "fair" or "poor"(I dislike "fair" because it can indicates mediocrity instead of awfulness).  About as many Republicans (44%) believe that he should step aside as run for re-election. 

By the favorability criterion, Governor Corbett is down 23%-52% (contrast President Obama at  50%-43%) which is unambiguously dreadful.

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyoct13.pdf

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[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

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[TX Conservative Dem]

Maryland: Brown will win the Democratic nomination (due to Gansler's little Party incident) and the general, making him the nation's 3rd elected African American governor and 4th overall since Reconstruction.

[publicunofficial]

Maryland: Brown will win the Democratic nomination (due to Gansler's little Party incident) and the general, making him the nation's 3rd elected African American governor and 4th overall since Reconstruction.

Thanks for the update, 10/10 post

[pbrower2a]

Just to remind us all: the current Governor of Virginia will likely have no bearing on any further elections in the state. Virginia gets whited out until a poll gives an approval of the next Governor.

New Jersey? Only if Chris Christie is defeated, which is highly unlikely to happen. If re-elected, then no change in the coloring of New Jersey on this map occurs until a fresh poll.   

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White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

Whatever you think of Scott Walker (R-WI), he is not a lame duck. He has been bouncing around 'even' lately. He is vulnerable.

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Read more from Journal Sentinel: http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/marquette-university-law-school-to-release-new-poll-results-b99130541z1-229724451.html#ixzz2jgDS0iZQ  

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White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[pbrower2a]

November 1-4, 2013
Survey of 500 Texas voters (PPP)

Texas Survey Results

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_TX_1105.pdf

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White is for a non-partisan Governor, independent Governor, no Governor, or any transition to a new one (death, resignation, disqualification, impeachment and removal, defeat, or not campaigning for re-election).

[Badger]

pbrower, I sincerely appriciate all the work you put into these maps, but I have to confess I can't follow what they're supposed to show.

I suspect I'm not alone in that regard.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan -- by a single-state pollster with an extreme R bias:

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http://www.freep.com/article/20130911/NEWS06/309110161/

After what Rick Snyder did to unions, one can expect the large unions of Michigan to give him any political quarter. Likewise the harsh anti-abortion law that offends feminists will hurt. Sure, there is overlap. People who approve of his expansion of Medicaid and promotion of a bridge to Canada south of Detroit will likely have no trouble with his opponent, who is simply not well know statewide.

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[pbrower2a]

pbrower, I sincerely appriciate all the work you put into these maps, but I have to confess I can't follow what they're supposed to show.

I suspect I'm not alone in that regard.

1. I have a theory -- that a popular governor in the same party as the President helps his Party, and that an unpopular governor in his Party helps the other party. Until a year ago it had some relevance: Mitt Romney wasn't appearing on stage with Governors of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or Florida. Those R Governors weren't helping Mitt Romney. In 2015, should the Democrats have replaced Rick Snyder with a Democrat treading water politically, then the Democratic nominee for President could be in trouble.

To be sure, President Obama wasn't campaigning in  Arkansas or Kentucky, as he was a horrible fit for those states. Also, President Obama isn't campaigning for anything in 2016, so that may be irrelevant now.

2. I see approvals as some measure of at the least a perception of probity and competence. If one barely gets elected and offends about everyone who voted against one (Rick Scott in Florida), then there's not much wiggle room. On the other side, someone like Rick Snyder could win in a landslide and then stab in the back people whose interests he promised not to betray... and he can become extremely unpopular fast.   I find it just astounding that Sam Brownback is so unpopular in Kansas, a state in which Republicans would seem to have every advantage. Maybe there is a huge difference between legislating and governing. The skill sets do not perfectly match.

3. Many of the Presidents of the US have been Governors -- including Dubya, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, and FDR. I'm not saying that those make better Presidents. Early in 2011 I thought that Rick Snyder had a chance to be elected President in 2016. Not after he stabbed Michigan's large and influential unions in the back. This map, or better sequences of it, can show that.

OK, Jerry Brown is never going to be President of the United States, and that has nothing to do with his approval ratings. But it is undeniably clear that those Governors whose states are shown in any shade of green or orange are not Presidential material.

4. The chance of a partisan switch in a state is very high in a state in which the Governor is unpopular. Democrats should do well in winning Governorships in several states in 2014. Beginning in 2015 we should have more of an idea which Governors might make sharing a stage with the Presidential nominee of their Party a good strategy -- and in which such could be unwise. We will get a good idea in Virginia fairly soon.

5. Sometimes we get an indication of political trouble. The news media are slow to expose scandals, but the journalists do not plug those that they suspect of conflicts of interest or being in politics only for themselves.

6. VP choices can come from among current or recent Governors sought for balance, especially if they have some insecurity about themselves as administrators.    

[pbrower2a]

For what a tweet is worth:

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

@JohnKasich has 37-42 approval, 55-26 with GOP, ties @EdFitzGeraldCE at 41, Libertarian @EarlForOhio at 6%

It wouldn't change the map.

[pbrower2a]

from Daily Kos:

 OH-Gov: It looks like the tentacles of the Suarez Corporation scandal wound up reaching higher than previously thought. On Wednesday, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported that GOP Rep. Jim Renacci wrote a letter to fellow Republican Gov. John Kasich in an attempt to get him to intervene on behalf of Benjamin Suarez, whose direct marketing firm was being targeted by local prosecutors in California. Suarez also reached out to Kasich directly, and his office claimed that the requests died there, with Suarez being told "we can't help you."

Well, someone on John Kasich's staff should have done a little more research before issuing that blanket denial, because a follow-up report on Thursday busted that claim completely. It turns out that Kasich's chief counsel sent a letter to California Attorney General Kamala Harris, asking her to "determine whether anything improper has occurred" in the Napa County DA's investigation of Suarez Corp. (Harris's response was a polite version of GTFO.)

Suarez, of course, had donated to Kasich's campaign (over $22,000), in addition to the donations he illegally smurfed through his company's employees to Renacci and state Treasurer Josh Mandel. (Mandel also wrote letters on Suarez's behalf.) All three have since either returned the contributions or donated them to charity, and none of these officials are directly implicated in the structuring scheme for which Benjamin Suarez and his company are currently being prosecuted by the U.S. Attorney's office.

But their willingness to help a shady character with such a shady undertaking—even a Kasich spokesman admitted that Suarez's requests were "inappropriate, and frankly, a little weird"—don't make them look especially good. And Kasich's denial that he'd ever helped Suarez was just boneheadedly stupid.

[pbrower2a]

California -- Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California

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http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-poll-california-republicans-ethnicity-age-20131111,0,1938703.story#axzz2kQVtVSqP

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[pbrower2a]

Paul LePage might get some help from the troubled rollout of Obamacare, right?

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Apparently not. No real change. Still awful.  Still a mistake -- the classic "one-and-out".

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[pbrower2a]

Wow! Rick Scott improves into the category one higher than where he has been:





It's still a 19% gap. Whoopee. At this rate he might catch up in approval sometime in the summer of 2015 -- when he is an ex-governor.

http://gravismarketingblog.com/2013/11/14/gravis-marketing-florida-governor-poll/

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[pbrower2a]

Colorado, Quinnipiac. Hickenlooper stays slightly afloat (48-46). He would win against weak opposition, as the poll shows for two of the more prominent Colorado Republicans.  

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1977

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[Flake]

In that poll, Hickie has 48% approve and 46% disapprove.