The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread

[Landslide Lyndon]

Of course Romney is leading, they polled the state just a day after his Michigan and Arizona triumphs and all the positive coverage he had.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Of course Romney is leading, they polled the state just a day after his Michigan and Arizona triumphs and all the positive coverage he had.

Well, the caucus is on Saturaday. It's not like the positive coverage is going to subside much by then.

Just like it didn't subside after his Florida/Nevada wins?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Huh? Where does that "It's over!!! Romney has it wrapped up!!!" thing came from the last two days? Mittens was always the heavy favorite in Illinois, even after his southern debacle. A simple look at an Illinois map will show even to the most naive that Chicagoland will always outvote downstate, even in a Republican primary.

And Santorum will be fine in April as long as he wins the states he's expected to win (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and perhaps Delaware). If he manages to survive there then it will be Romney who will have to face a brutal month in May.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Huh? Where does that "It's over!!! Romney has it wrapped up!!!" thing came from the last two days? Mittens was always the heavy favorite in Illinois, even after his southern debacle. A simple look at an Illinois map will show even to the most naive that Chicagoland will always outvote downstate, even in a Republican primary.

And Santorum will be fine in April as long as he wins the states he's expected to win (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and perhaps Delaware). If he manages to survive there then it will be Romney who will have to face a brutal month in May.

Santorum needs a game changer. Illinois would be one but he's not getting it. In fact, he's probably going to get blown out of the water. On the current trajectory (Santorum winning some of the caucus states and most of the ultra conservative states/Romney winning everything else), Romney wins the nomination. Simple as that.

Well, that was pretty obvious always. The point is that even if Romney wins Illinois in a landslide, the primary season isn't going to shut down. The best Democrats can hope for is for him suffering through a grinding process that reaches through June and which weakens him considerably as a GE candidate.

The only possibility for Santorum to do something more than that is if he survives the Northeast Super Tuesday and proceeds to sweep every contest in May (very difficult but not inconceivable), thus making the argument that Mittens is damaged goods and forcing an open convention. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

One last note before I go to bed- Santorum with a big lead in Nebraska where we went in the field tonight. No surprise.

No way! John King said the other day that its impossible for Santorum to win in Nebraska.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Delaware might be fertile ground for Santorum too.

Montana and Indiana are not Romney-states ... yet.

Does anyone know which part of Montana has more sway in a Republican primary? The eastern half, which resembles closely the Dakotas, will be Rick country. If it can outvote the more populous but more Democratic western half then Santorum will be the favorite.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Delaware might be fertile ground for Santorum too.

I'm not sure about that: many bankers and rich people there.

And many hicks downstate. These are the same people who chose to throw away a Senate seat by choosing a witch over a pillar of the state's political life.

And don't forget that he must be well known (and I assume respected) since they share the Philadelphia media market.

[Landslide Lyndon]

On the other hand, Delaware's 2008 primary result mirrored the one in Illinois.

And we know how the IL primary ended this week.

McCain's vote both in Illinois and Delaware was pretty homogenous. He didn't have a glaring problem with downscale voters and his military record made him a much better fit for rural areas, where Romney gets killed everytime.
Again, it's a matter of numbers. If Wilmington and subs can outvote the downstate the Mittens wins. If not then Rick wins.  

[Landslide Lyndon]

I always thought that the polls showing Romney ahead in Iowa were stretching credulity. He is a terrible fit for the state.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Now kids, comparing Dick Morris to JJ is totally unfair.

Morris is deliriously funny while JJ is just boring and/or annoying.