2012 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Possibly stupid question, but if the next election offered a possible majority for CDU-Pirates, would that be politically viable or something anyone relevant would even consider trying?

CDU + Pirates =

[Tender Branson]

NRW fallout polls by ARD and ZDF (but conducted before Röttgen got kicked out):

34.0% CDU/CSU
30.0% SPD
13.0% Greens
10.0% Pirates
  5.0% Left
  4.5% FDP
  3.5% Others

Probably a Grand Coalition. And lol @ the Left.

[Tender Branson]

NRW fallout polls by ARD and ZDF (but conducted before Röttgen got kicked out):

34.0% CDU/CSU
30.0% SPD
13.0% Greens
10.0% Pirates
  5.0% Left
  4.5% FDP
  3.5% Others

Probably a Grand Coalition. And lol @ the Left.

Why are they polling after the election happened ?

They're national polls that were done after the NRW election.

Yepp. These are 2 separate polls by ARD and ZDF and I averaged them because they are not that far apart.

[Tender Branson]

In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

[Tender Branson]

In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

Is there any Western state (i.e. real Germany ) that would not throw out the Left right now? Possibly Hamburg? Saarland excluded, obviously.

I think they would even fail in Hamburg and Bremen right now, leaving only the Saarland.

In Bavaria, the Left isn't even included in the polls anymore ...

[Tender Branson]

Strictly speaking, they're still looking for a woman too, since party statutes require a male and a female co-chairman. So far, nobody seems to run for the female spot though.

What about Wagenknecht ? She not interested anymore ? Would a Lafontaine-Wagenknecht leadership be too much for the Left ?

[Tender Branson]

NRW-BOOST !

New YOUGOV/INSA/BILD poll:

33% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
14% Greens
  8% Pirates
  6% Left
  4% FDP
  3% Others

http://de.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idDEBEE84L00720120522

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/weitere-umfragen.htm

Since their May 1 poll, CDU/CSU is down by 3, the SPD is up 5, the Greens up 1, the Left down 1, the Pirates down 1 and the FDP is unchanged.

[Tender Branson]

This must be rather disturbing for Merkel, actually.
As long as the CDU is in first place, there's virtually no chance that she won't remain Chancellor, regardless with what coalition. If the SPD is gaining that strongly, though...?

It's probably just a Kraft bump that will go down, but it is perhaps something to worry about a little.

A Grand Coalition led by Merkel is still much more likely than Red-Green, because I think the Pirates and Greens will remain strong until the fall of next year and the Left will probably also rise again slightly after their convention turns out well. Therefore the CDU should remain ahead of the SPD again, because the FDP will continue to be around 4% with Rösler.

[Tender Branson]

Following the leadership election, the Left has now dropped to 4% (below the 5% barrier for parliamentary representation):

34% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
14% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% FDP
  4% Left
  4% Others

SPD-Greens (46%) is now tied with CDU-CSU-Pirates-FDP (46%).

[Tender Branson]

New Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll shows the SPD at the highest level in 2 years:

34% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
13% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% Left
  5% FDP
  4% Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

[Tender Branson]

Kraft is also preferred as Chancellor to Merkel now, according to a new poll.  43% said they preferred Kraft.  34% preferred Merkel.  Oh boy, I hope this trend lasts!

Hanneloremomentum! 

In the very unlikely event that she runs for the SPD-frontrunner post next year, who would follow her in NRW as SPD leader ?

[Tender Branson]

Merkel approval rating climbs to 66%:

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http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-06/merkel-approval-rises-to-highest-since-2009-in-post-summit-poll

[Tender Branson]

Latest Niedersachsen poll (YouGov/Bild):

35% SPD
31% CDU
14% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% Left
  4% FDP
  4% Others

49-43 majority for SPD/Greens.

http://www.rp-online.de/politik/deutschland/rot-gruen-liegt-in-niedersachsen-klar-vorn-1.2915029

[Tender Branson]

Also, Kurt Beck has announced his retirement. On the same day.

This will bring the number of female state pm's up to four. Malu Dreyer is the Anointed.

The old and the new Governor of Rheinland-Pfalz.

BTW: What kind of first name is "Malu" ? Never heard that before. I've heard "Balu", but not "Malu".

[Tender Branson]

An abbreviation of Marie Luise.

That makes sense. But I thought Malu was a name on its own.

[Tender Branson]

What about a SPD-Green minority government with the toleration of the Left, in the event that FDP and Pirates fail to get in ? Is that possible or is a Grand Coalition more likely ?

[Tender Branson]

Looks like the Green Fritz Kuhn wins the first round of the Stuttgart mayoral election with 36% ...

http://wahlen1.stuttgart.de/wahlen/wahl_h/oberbuergermeisterwahl/2012/obw2012_kandidaten.html

Interesting fact: Stuttgart only had 3 (!!!) mayors so far since WW2 ended (67 years ago).

[Tender Branson]

The CSU is close to 50% again in Bavaria, says a new Emnid poll for "Focus":

48% CSU
21% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  5% Others

Seehofer (CSU) defeats Ude (SPD) by 51-35 in the PM direct vote.

[Tender Branson]

The CSU is close to 50% again in Bavaria, says a new Emnid poll for "Focus":

48% CSU
21% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  5% Others

Seehofer (CSU) defeats Ude (SPD) by 51-35 in the PM direct vote.

CSU absolute majority again? Wow.

Back to normal. It will be even clearer if the Pirates consistently drop below the 5% barrier and the FDP also struggles with that threshold.

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU breaks 40% for the first time federally in 5 years in a new Infratest dimap poll:

40% CDU/CSU
30% SPD
14% Greens
  6% Left
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  2% Others

A new Lower-Saxony poll by Infratest dimap also has the CDU ahead in the next state elections on Jan. 20, 2013:

41% CDU
34% SPD
13% Greens
  3% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Pirates
  3% Others

47-41 majority for SPD/Greens over CDU though, because all other parties are below the 5%.

[Tender Branson]

Merkel is quite unstoppable right now.

Her approval rating is at 68%, which is the highest of all politicians:



She beats Steinbrück in a direct vote for Chancellor by wide margins:



Merkel is seen as the "stronger leader" by a 62-22 margin.

Merkel leads in "having more support in the own party" by 55-24.

Merkel is seen more "likeable" by 51-30 and "believeable" by 47-25.

Merkel leads "can colve the Euro-crisis" by 42-25.

Steinbrück leads "has more economic knowledge" by 38-33.

Steinbrück leads "does more for social issues" by 35-31.

[Tender Branson]

Just a question, is there a major Eurosceptic party in Germany, as in the UK?

None with any chance of breaking 5%.

So support for the EU is pretty entrenched, even in spite of the Euro crisis?

Just because there is no party that's really eurosceptic, it doesn't mean a sizeable amount of the population is not. I'd say 20-30% of Germans are eurosceptic at the moment, maybe even more ...

[Tender Branson]

The results of the next election seems preordained. 
CDU/CSU > SPD
CDU/CSU+FDP < SPD+Greens+Left+Pirates
SDP+Greens < CDU/CSU+FDP+Left+Pirates

Only real question is will FPD or Pirates make it past 5% but the answer to that question seems irrelevent to the makeup of the next government.

So there will be a grand coalition led by CDU/CSU with SPD as junior partners.

You forgot CDU/CSU/Greens, which is considered right now in Germany as a "serious" option.

CDU/CSU+FDP+Left+Pirates on the other hand is totally unlikely.

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern poll by GMS:

48% CSU
20% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  5% FDP
  4% Pirates
  2% Left
  3% Others

Absolute majority for CSU.