Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[Talleyrand]

Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

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http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/30/queensland-election-minus-one-day/

I think Queensland political geography in general is rather fluid - there seems to be a fair amount of marginal seats, far more than say NSW (which is notorously inelastic). Perhaps it's because there aren't that many leafy suburbs in Brisbane - only places like Indooropilly and Moggill really fit what you see in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and the North Shore of Sydney. That said, there are more safe LNP seats than safe Labor ones.

In addition to the leafy suburbs like those you mentioned, it seems like a lot of the regional areas along the northern coast seem to be quite marginal too, like Mirani and Whitsunday. I remember early on in the 2013 campaign, the ALP had some hopes for gaining seats like Herbert and Dawson when the campaign began. But yeah, the fluidity in the state makes it really interesting to watch, which is probably a major part of the reason why this election (while likely not being a change of government) has attracted more attention than the more anti-climatic Victorian election last year.

[Talleyrand]

So three virtually identical polls in all respects (primary vote, two party preferred vote, satisfaction, and preferred premier).

Not sure what to make of that, but I'll do a (traditionally pessimistic) prediction here.

TPP
LNP: 53.5%
ALP: 46.5%

Seats
LNP- 56 (RIP Newman though)
ALP- 27
Crossbench- 6 (Knuth, Katter, Wellington, Foley, Boyd, Butler)

[Talleyrand]

The Galaxy exit poll has it as 54-46 ... to the ALP. Based largely that the GRN primary isn't exhausting.

But, I'm extremely wary of it. The polls haven't closed and I just don't but it...

That would be an unprecedented polling failure in recent years. It'll be an LNP win, although Newman is finished. Exit poll has it 56-44 to the ALP in Ashgrove.

BTW, where can I find the ABC livestream?

[Talleyrand]

Looked at it,  but ABC hasn't been made international yet; I'm currently watching Channel 9 instead while I wait for geo-block to be removed.

Lot of hype about an ALP win. Lol.

[Talleyrand]

Antony Green- 14% swing in first booth from Cook.

Liz Cunningham's Independent in Gladstone is doing very well.

[Talleyrand]

Interesting- Massive swings to ALP in Bundaberg and Toowoomba South. They'll stay LNP, but now it makes sense why Newman spent time here this week.

[Talleyrand]

20 point swing to ALP in Bundaberg. As Morgieb has said, it was held by Labor for over a hundred years before 2006, but it's now on a 18% margin. Amazing.

[Talleyrand]

Peter Beattie has made a premature call for an ALP win.

Still way too early.

[Talleyrand]

The loser seems to be the crossbench.

Looks like only Knuth and Katter will win for KAP, and Nicklin will hold for the independents.

[Talleyrand]

The loser seems to be the crossbench.

Looks like only Knuth and Katter will win for KAP, and Nicklin will hold for the independents.

I would say the loser is the LNP...

Well, the less obvious loser is the crossbench.

ALP is now ahead on the primary vote.

Billy Gordon in Cook will be the first Labor Aboriginal MP.

[Talleyrand]

The loser seems to be the crossbench.

Looks like only Knuth and Katter will win for KAP, and Nicklin will hold for the independents.

Hmm that's only 4 to 3. Pauline still has an outside chance I guess, perhaps Foley as well.

And the obvious losers, regardless of if Labor can get a majority are the LNP.

True. Foley can win if he pulls ahead of Labor, but Pauline has got no chance once you account for Labor/Green preferences.

[Talleyrand]

One thing is clear, whatever the final result may be. Annastacia will be secure as Labor leader for the foreseeable future.

[Talleyrand]

LNP has held all its Gold Coast seats; it also looks like they've limited the swing enough to hold Toowoomba North against former Attorney General Kerry Shine.

[Talleyrand]

Do we have any statewide TPP estimates?

[Talleyrand]

Is anyone else enjoying the hilarious fighting between Tim Nicholls and Wayne Swan on ABC? LOL

Antony Green has ruled out an LNP majority government.

[Talleyrand]

Tomorrow's Courier-Mail (this newspaper endorsed the LNP).

[Talleyrand]

This is still so surreal for me.

Yeah, it still isn't sinking in for me.

I remember when I first started following Australian politics, the first election I watched unfold was Queensland 2012, and I've based a lot of my outlook off of that.

Even if the LNP takes a minority government, this is just incredible. For once, I am glad to have egg on my face.

If Annastacia forms government, she will be the first female state premier to win from opposition, while Anna Bligh became the first female state premier to win from government back in 2009. Good for Queensland.

The big "correction" everyone was talking about turned out to be a 2PP not too different from 2009. Wonder how Anna Bligh's feeling tonight.

Yes, I imagine Anna Bligh will feel vindicated.

[Talleyrand]

Labor to either win or go very close to victory. You heard it here first.

I will now accept my accolades.

Yes, you, Beatrice, Polnut, Barnes, and anyone else who saw the potential for this result need a huge congratulations.

So three virtually identical polls in all respects (primary vote, two party preferred vote, satisfaction, and preferred premier).

Not sure what to make of that, but I'll do a (traditionally pessimistic) prediction here.

TPP
LNP: 53.5%
ALP: 46.5%

Seats
LNP- 56 (RIP Newman though)
ALP- 27
Crossbench- 6 (Knuth, Katter, Wellington, Foley, Boyd, Butler)

^Lol

[Talleyrand]

Congrats, morgieb! I don't think I deserve any accolades considering as earlier today I was predicting that they'd win and Newman would be parachuted into a safe seat

Well you still predicted something very close to the final results anyway.

Also, the ALP has won every seat in Far North Queensland; the only region they've totally swept I think.

[Talleyrand]

Leanne Enoch has become the first Aboriginal woman elected to Parliament, winning back the safe Labor seat of Algester.

Every state seat that falls in Wyatt Roy's federal electorate has been lost save one which is being held by 1%. Hopefully that little sh**tstain goes down soon.

I would most like to see Roy and Gambaro lose in the federal election. Might be too much to ask for though.

[Talleyrand]

Jane Prentice basically just said 'we need to turf Tony' in political terms. WHat she actually said was 'we need to have a discussion about how we go forward', but that was in response to 'Do you think the coalition needs to loom at Tony Abbott's leadership' or similar.

"We can't continue as we are, we're getting bad feedback" was her response when asked if Tony had an effect on the back to back losses of first term Coalition governments. He may not be in The Lodge much longer.

She also refused to rule out a leadership spill, stating that "we'll be having further discussions" again like Hugh pointed out. Not a vote of confidence.

[Talleyrand]

Annastacia is speaking now in Inala, where she secured a 19% swing in her favor.

[Talleyrand]

The LNP has actually won the primary vote in 50 electorates, so preferences changed a lot of final results this time, contrasting heavily with 2012, where the primary winner won the TPP in every seat.

[Talleyrand]

Sunday Mail's latest issue.

[Talleyrand]

If the ALP ends up forming government, would they be the smallest opposition to win an election in Australian history?

This is all still very surreal. I'm still pausing to remind myself it actually happened. By far the most extraordinary election result I've ever witnessed in my (short) life.