The absentee/early vote thread

[HillOfANight]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/29/politics/early-voter-data/
Updated 10/30 8AM

Arizona
-GOP up 34K/3.6%.
-In 2012, they were up 62K/9.7%.

Colorado
-Dems up 27K, compared to GOP lead of 19K in 2012.

Georgia
-Turnout among white voters rose by about 3% vs 2012
-Turnout among black voters is down by about 4.5% vs 2012

Florida
-Registered Republicans are ahead by about 13,545 votes, a smaller lead than they had one week ago. -At this point in 2008, registered Republicans had a 44,000-vote advantage

Iowa
-Democrats are currently ahead of Republicans by about 39,000 votes. But that's a significant drop from their position at this point in 2012, when they led by 56,000.

Nevada
-Democrats are up by 8.8% today, but were ahead by 9.3% at this time in 2012.

North Carolina
-Democrats have a 15% lead over registered Republicans. This is the smallest lead (as a percent of the vote) Democrats have seen since early voting began October 20.
-black voters are about 23% of the early voting electorate. That number was 29% at this point four years ago.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/29/politics/early-voter-data/
Updated 10/30 8AM

Arizona
-GOP up 34K/3.6%.
-In 2012, they were up 62K/9.7%.

Colorado
-Dems up 27K, compared to GOP lead of 19K in 2012.

Georgia
-Turnout among white voters rose by about 3% vs 2012
-Turnout among black voters is down by about 4.5% vs 2012

Florida
-Registered Republicans are ahead by about 13,545 votes, a smaller lead than they had one week ago. -At this point in 2008, registered Republicans had a 44,000-vote advantage

Iowa
-Democrats are currently ahead of Republicans by about 39,000 votes. But that's a significant drop from their position at this point in 2012, when they led by 56,000.

Nevada
-Democrats are up by 8.8% today, but were ahead by 9.3% at this time in 2012.

North Carolina
-Democrats have a 15% lead over registered Republicans. This is the smallest lead (as a percent of the vote) Democrats have seen since early voting began October 20.
-black voters are about 23% of the early voting electorate. That number was 29% at this point four years ago.

According to Florida election site, the lead for Republicans' raw votes now is 23,446 as of 10/30 morning.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think, if HRC wins florida, we won't be able to figure it out with official data till election day.

[swf541]

i think, if HRC wins florida, we won't be able to figure it out with official data till election day.

Pretty much it will be closer either way, and I'd expect a lot of crossover votes both ways in Florida this year.

[BoAtlantis]

Republicans lead over Democrats is not as reliable anymore. Too many NPA this year.

Depends on whom majority of NPA are voting for this year.

[dspNY]

I don't think we can draw a real conclusion about FL until all the early vote results are in on 11/7 due to the different voting schedule

[Maxwell]

from what I've read so far a lot of NPA voters are Hispanic.

[ApatheticAustrian]

unaff according to the "experts" more youngish and latino.

[Speed of Sound]

This is why you build a ground game:

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[BoAtlantis]

Breakdown of early voting in each state

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/29/where-early-voting-hints-at-good-news-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump/

This article has a lot of nice summary graphs-- thanks for the link

My pleasure

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton          Trump         Clinton       Trump
Already voted     686,000         462,000    56.7%     38.2%
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

Update as of 10/30 on NC

   IN RAW VOTES   AS A PCT.
                      Clinton    Trump       Clinton      Trump
Already voted   878,000   653,000   54.9%   40.8%
Yet to vote   1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%   44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%

[OkThen]

This is why you build a ground game:

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And he followed up with...

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/792772515680714752

[ApatheticAustrian]

nate cohn got it backwards and deleted his good news for hillary.

to switch it with even better news:

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[Speed of Sound]

nate cohn got it backwards and deleted his good news for hillary.

to switch it with even better news:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Which should look similar in the other big early vote states. It's hilarious how everyone touted the ground game as a huge decider when the race was clearly out of hand and didn't need it, and now that they think the race is close (it actually isn't), they have no confidence in that exact same thing.

[swf541]

nate cohn got it backwards and deleted his good news for hillary.

to switch it with even better news:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Which should look similar in the other big early vote states. It's hilarious how everyone touted the ground game as a huge decider when the race was clearly out of hand and didn't need it, and now that they think the race is close (it actually isn't), they have no confidence in that exact same thing.

Pretty much this also explains the early vote polling showing Clinton over performing party id

[Mehmentum]

The fact that Democrats are overperforming Party ID in polls of early voters is even more impressive when you consider that a number of registered Democrats in NC and FL are Dixiecrats.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the dixiecrats in FL should be dead by now...don't know why but this state has had a BIG realignment regarding party registration since 2012.


btw.....RIGGING AND BUSSING IN NV!!!!!!

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https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/792776594657939457?lang=de

[dspNY]

nate cohn got it backwards and deleted his good news for hillary.

to switch it with even better news:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Which should look similar in the other big early vote states. It's hilarious how everyone touted the ground game as a huge decider when the race was clearly out of hand and didn't need it, and now that they think the race is close (it actually isn't), they have no confidence in that exact same thing.

Pretty much this also explains the early vote polling showing Clinton over performing party id

Clinton GOTV identifying non-voters or unlikely voters that wouldn't make it through polling screens? Many of them would be non-affiliated

[Speed of Sound]

the dixiecrats in FL should be dead by now...don't know why but this state has had a BIG realignment regarding party registration since 2012.


btw.....RIGGING AND BUSSING IN NV!!!!!!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/792776594657939457?lang=de

My trusted sources say that they are all "that sort of people" (you know who I mean, America) from out of state getting bussed in by the millions to turn NV for TRUMP. #MakeAmericaWhiteAgain

[dspNY]

I found this Florida poll from Ipsos in 2012 that gave Obama a 9 point lead among voters (51%) who cast their ballots early (53-44):

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ReutersIpsosStates.pdf

So Clinton leading by 15 with 36% of the statewide vote already cast according to NBC is quite significant

[Mehmentum]

the dixiecrats in FL should be dead by now...don't know why but this state has had a BIG realignment regarding party registration since 2012.

Oh wow, in that case all of these comparisons to Florida early voting in 2008 aren't very accurate.  If Democrats are beating their early voting totals in 2008 despite Dixiecrats switching over to Republicans... that's a very good sign.

[Speed of Sound]

Dan Frosch digs into the voter surge in Texas (full article, not just the graph below):




https://twitter.com/TimJHanrahan/status/792754968461713409

[Antonio the Sixth]

Beautiful!

[dspNY]

Dan Frosch digs into the voter surge in Texas (full article, not just the graph below):




https://twitter.com/TimJHanrahan/status/792754968461713409

Texas will be a battleground after all

Sending out the bat-signal for NOVA Green on this. It looks like about 2/3 of the total voter registration spike in TX was Hispanic and most of the increased turnout in all these large TX counties is Hispanic

[Virginiá]

the dixiecrats in FL should be dead by now...don't know why but this state has had a BIG realignment regarding party registration since 2012.

Oh wow, in that case all of these comparisons to Florida early voting in 2008 aren't very accurate.  If Democrats are beating their early voting totals in 2008 despite Dixiecrats switching over to Republicans... that's a very good sign.

Upshot did a big story on why Republicans were gaining so much in registrations in states like PA, NC, FL, etc. It's basically just a combination of people getting removed from the rolls due to death/moved/etc and also very much that people still registered as Democrats but have been voting Republican for years are just now switching their registrations for one reason or another. Even in 2012 there were some counties whose Democratic reg numbers suggested they were a deeply Democratic area despite Republicans winning in landslides there.

In addition, they also said that the Democratic share of the registrations will continue to drop sharply over the next 4+ years, but it doesn't mean there are more Republicans now. In fact, Upshot also went on to state that Democrats are still winning the new registration race bigly, just as we did in 2012.

So I dunno about 'Dixiecrats' or what people mean by it in this thread, but there are still plenty of registered Democrats who ceased supporting Democrats long ago.

[ApatheticAustrian]

still not enough i figure but i wonder if "activated" voters are sticking around.