The absentee/early vote thread

[Ozymandias]

if the general assumptions about NC (strong in clinton's direction) are right, i project a disappointing NC sttp-result since alle other groups are way up and afro-americans were reaaaaaaally strong in 2012.

But that's the point. Today was the day they were expected to catch up.

Actually, that's not true-- of the 21 counties that offered Sunday early voting in 2012, 9 chose to eliminate it this year:

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article100284162.html

Basically Republicans trying to suppress the Black vote.

So souls to the poll will help, but you shouldn't expect the early Black vote to "catch up" to 2012 (since there was a bigger Sun. boost back in 2012)

Though hopefully the early Black vote will catch up by the end of the week...

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am having faith in the afro-american vote, which is in general the backbone of the democratic party.

i just won't assume that every year must be 2012...there are other groups which too have a responsibility...maybe even more so this time...to prevent a madman from becoming president.

[Mehmentum]

Guys, remember that Hurricane Matthew hit parts of North Carolina hard, so don't worry about AA turnout too much. Have faith that it will pick back up.

Its also down in FL, GA, VA.   This isn't (solely) hurricane related, or solely voter suppression.  It seems like black turnout is returning to 'normal' without Obama on the ballot.

[Antonio the Sixth]

i just won't assume that every year must be 2012...

But every year should be like 2012. Going back from that means taking the first step to a return of Jim Crow.

[OneJ]

Guys, remember that Hurricane Matthew hit parts of North Carolina hard, so don't worry about AA turnout too much. Have faith that it will pick back up.

Its also down in FL, GA, VA.   This isn't (solely) hurricane related, or solely voter suppression.  It seems like black turnout is returning to 'normal' without Obama on the ballot.

I understand. I should have put one of the reasons. However, I think we should keep our heads up. We have an entire week.

[NOVA Green]

What about NC? This is where SttP was supposed to make all the difference, right?

NC hasn't updated at http://www.electproject.org/early_2016. Does anyone have any updates on NC?

Most Sos sites don't update weekend numbers until Monday....

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that many on the forum are freaking without any real data to back it up....

[Antonio the Sixth]

What about NC? This is where SttP was supposed to make all the difference, right?

NC hasn't updated at http://www.electproject.org/early_2016. Does anyone have any updates on NC?

Most Sos sites don't update weekend numbers until Monday....

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that many on the forum are freaking without any real data to back it up....

If so, tomorrow is gonna be CRAZY.

[ApatheticAustrian]

But every year should be like 2012. Going back from that means taking the first step to a return of Jim Crow.

i understand your general judgement but to assume that a minority group always votes 90+% for one candidate with the highest turnout of the whole electorate seems a little bit far-fetched for me.

if the republican party wouldn't be ready to kill itself in the long-term this couldbn't have been achieved anyway.

instead of pressuring a single group into delivering each and each cycle again and again....i guess all groups sacrifice a little bit more.

i think african americans are going to do just fine....but if they don't feel as personally insulted from the allegations of "inner city voter fraud" as from the birtherism against obama in 2012....all other groups could have changed this election too.

this time all the blaming and shaming has been about latinos.....and to a smaller grade, highly educated white women.....both of those groups must decide for themselves if they accept the republic to treat them like this. if they don't come out strongly against those attitudes...they only have themselves to blame.

[Dr. Arch]

What about NC? This is where SttP was supposed to make all the difference, right?

NC hasn't updated at http://www.electproject.org/early_2016. Does anyone have any updates on NC?

Most Sos sites don't update weekend numbers until Monday....

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that many on the forum are freaking without any real data to back it up....

Nobody is freaking out in here so far as I can tell (don't count Jante; he's in permanent freak out mode ). NV looks very good!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What about NC? This is where SttP was supposed to make all the difference, right?

NC hasn't updated at http://www.electproject.org/early_2016. Does anyone have any updates on NC?

Most Sos sites don't update weekend numbers until Monday....

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that many on the forum are freaking without any real data to back it up....

Atlas freaking out without facts?!

[Antonio the Sixth]

But every year should be like 2012. Going back from that means taking the first step to a return of Jim Crow.

i understand your general judgement but to assume that a minority group always votes 90+% for one candidate with the highest turnout of the whole electorate seems a little bit far-fetched for me.

if the republican party wouldn't be ready to kill itself in the long-term this couldbn't have been achieved anyway.

instead of pressuring a single group into delivering each and each cycle again and again....i guess all groups sacrifice a little bit more.

i think african americans are going to do just fine....but if they don't feel as personally insulted from the allegations of "inner city voter fraud" as from the birtherism against obama in 2012....all other groups could have changed this election too.

this time all the blaming and shaming has been about latinos.....and to a smaller grade, highly educated white women.....both of those groups must decide for themselves if they accept the republic to treat them like this. if they don't come out strongly against those attitudes...they only have themselves to blame.

In the words of a famous Latina... why not both?

[henster]

Have a bad feeling about NC, feels eerily like Hagan v. Tillis there. She led consistely in polls, EV looked 'good' and she fell short because of lackluster turnout notably with blacks.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Have a bad feeling about NC, feels eerily like Hagan v. Tillis there. She led consistely in polls, EV looked 'good' and she fell short because of lackluster turnout notably with blacks.

it was reasonable close if i remember correctly and that was a midterm year after all.

our general assumption of NC right isn't grounded on polls in general but on after-voting polls of early voters.

could still be wrong but comparisons to 2012 seem more logical than 2014.

[Ozymandias]

"Early Voting Stability Despite News Volatility"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-stability-de_b_12723188.html

"Did the Comey letter depress Democratic enthusiasm?"

"A way to gauge the effect of the announcement is to see if Democrats voted in-person at lower levels than 2012 on the next day, Saturday. There are two states - Nevada and North Carolina - reporting early voting by party registration that provide some clues as to a potential effect... the preliminary evidence is little or no effect of Comey’s letter depressing Democratic enthusiasm."

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Have a bad feeling about NC, feels eerily like Hagan v. Tillis there. She led consistely in polls, EV looked 'good' and she fell short because of lackluster turnout notably with blacks.

it was reasonable close if i remember correctly and that was a midterm year after all.

our general assumption of NC right isn't grounded on polls in general but on after-voting polls of early voters.

could still be wrong but comparisons to 2012 seem more logical than 2014.

Ugh - Democratic base voters didn't turn out in 2014 full stop.

[Ebsy]

The 2016 electorate is going to look nothing like the 2014 electorate.

[henster]

Interesting note from McDonald on NC.

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No evidence of depressed R enthusiasm.

[Speed of Sound]

Wasserman and McDonald talk on NC's supposed "depressed D turnout":

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[Ozymandias]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15s16 seconds ago
"Of the 20,269 people who voted today in Georgia, 48% are Black (11% are unknown, due to a slightly stale voter file) #soulstopolls"

Hallelujah!

[Speed of Sound]

Like in FL, a calming reminder about the role of Unaffiliateds in deciding NC:

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That ain't what Trump supporters look like. Instead, these unaffiliateds look like FL's.

And don't think they won't play their role % wise:

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[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15s16 seconds ago
Of the 20,269 people who voted today in Georgia, 48% are Black (11% are unknown, due to a slightly stale voter file) #soulstopolls

Hallelujah!

Wow.

[OneJ]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15s16 seconds ago
"Of the 20,269 people who voted today in Georgia, 48% are Black (11% are unknown, due to a slightly stale voter file) #soulstopolls"

Hallelujah!

Thank you JESUS!!!

[Dr. Arch]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15s16 seconds ago
"Of the 20,269 people who voted today in Georgia, 48% are Black (11% are unknown, due to a slightly stale voter file) #soulstopolls"

Hallelujah!

Thank you JESUS!!!

WHOA!!! There you go Jante!

[Speed of Sound]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15s16 seconds ago
"Of the 20,269 people who voted today in Georgia, 48% are Black (11% are unknown, due to a slightly stale voter file) #soulstopolls"

Hallelujah!

That's a very encouraging number indeed. If Clark comes in positive as well, then it looks like the weekend has largely been a success.

[ApatheticAustrian]

NC-re-alignment:

according to a right-wing-think tank - last summer:

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https://www.nccivitas.org/2016/ncs-voter-registration-upheaval-2012-2016/


compared to the 2012 election there are now 145000 registered democrats less...and 20000 registered republicans more.


https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=11-03-2012
https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-29-2016

unaff are the biggest difference by far.