How much Repub. obstructionism expected for Sup. Crt. nominee?

[anvi]

They will hold hearings and reject a nominee or nominees.  There is basically no political upside, from the GOP point of view, to confirming an Obama nominee.  Short-term, their constituents and donor-base would be furious with them for ceding to Obama and letting the balance of SCOTUS shift, whereas those same constituents and donors will be fired up and shower campaigns with cash for holding out.  Long-term, if they confirmed an Obama nominee, the majority of district court rulings over the next eleven months would probably stand anyway, whereas if they hold out and win the presidency, the GOP gets to retain a conservative majority on SCOTUS for thirty-some years, perhaps.  It's a gamble, and might bake them look bad.  But it's a gamble they have at least some chance of winning.  If they conform an Obama nominee, they just lose, short- and long-term.  By holding hearings, and voting, they can contain the damage of appearances, so they will do that.

[anvi]

I think a Dem victory in the fall forces the Senate to confirm someone.  They can't leave the court 4-4 forever and let the District Courts make law for much beyond eleven months.  Whether they confirm Obama's nominee during the lame duck or whether they let the next Dem president pick someone depends on whom Obama chooses.  If it's a centrist, they might end up taking them rather than wait for a new Dem president with a new electoral mandate choose off their own menu.  If Obama picks someone farther left, they might use their majority to force the next Dem president to select someone more centrist.  But they can't tenably continue to obstruct after an election where their opponent wins.