The Delegate Fight: 2012

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Super Tuesday Results

Georgia

Gingrich wins the At-Large delegates, 20-11, and picks up the 3 RNC members for winning the state.  Santorum falls just short of the 20% threshold needed for winning At-Large delegates.

DeKalb County (feat. Atlanta) has yet to report breakdowns by CD.  As a result, I cannot call the delegates from CDs 4, 5, and 6 as of yet.  Among the other 11 CDs, Gingrich wins 27 delegates, while Romney and Santorum win 3 a pieces.  The remaining 9 delegates will presumably break strongly for Romney, who won DeKalb county.

Total:
Gingrich - 50
Romney - 14
Santorum - 3
Pending - 9

Idaho

Romney wins all 32 delegates.

Massachusetts

Romney wins all 38 delegates.

North Dakota

If the delegation is allocated proportionally:

Santorum - 11
Paul - 8
Romney - 7
Gingrich - 2

I'll see how feasible this is later.

Ohio

Romney - 38
Santorum - 21
Unallocated - 4

Those 4 'Unallocated' delegates are the delegates in CDs where Santorum won but did not file a complete delegate slate.  A contest committee will decide how these delegates will be awarded.

Also remember that all Ohio delegates are only "morally bound" and could shift their vote.

Oklahoma

Santorum - 14
Romney - 13
Gingrich - 13

Tennessee

Is not providing CD breakdowns at the moment, although they easily could.  The At-Large delegation split 12-9-7, Santorum-Romney-Gingrich.  The CD delegates should split heavily in favor of Santorum.

Virginia

Romney - 43
Paul - 3

Vermont

Romney - 9
Paul - 4
Santorum - 4

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Tennessee CD Results

Remember, in each CD, the winner gets 2 and the placer gets 1 (unless someone breaks 2/3rds or only 1 candidate breaks 20%).  The old CD lines are used, as the new ones were not in place prior to the filing deadlines.

CD 1: Winner: Santorum.  Placer: Slight Lean Romney

In the counties entirely within CD 1, Gingrich has a 596-vote lead over Romney.  In Sevier County, which is about 75% in CD 1, Romney has a 865-vote lead over Gingrich.  In Jefferson County, which is about 22% in CD 1, Romney has a 61-vote lead over Gingrich.  Romney may squeak this one out, but it really depends on the exact breakdown in Sevier.

CD 2: Winner: Santorum.  Placer: Romney

CD 3: Winner: Santorum.  Placer:  Slight Lean Romney

In the counties wholly within CD 3, Romney has a 57-vote lead.  In Jefferson County (78% in CD 3), Romney has a 61-vote lead.  In Roane County (26% in CD 3), Romney has a 224-vote lead.

CD 4:  Winner: Santorum.  Placer: Likely Gingrich

In the counties wholly within CD 4, Gingrich has a 1091-vote lead.  In Roane County (76% in CD 4), Romney has a 224-vote lead.  In Hickman County (59% in CD 4), Gingrich has a 132-vote lead.  In Williamson County (12% in CD 4), Romney has a 3465-vote lead.

CD 5:  Winner:  Likely Santorum.  Placer: Likely Romney

Despite a narrow win in Davidson, Romney was trounced in Wilson and Cheatham counties, and likely loses the CD.

CD 6:  Winner: Santorum.  Placer: Likely Gingrich

Gingrich is ahead by 177 votes outside of Wilson county.  Gingrich is also ahead 501 votes in Wilson, though only 22% of the county is in CD 6.

CD 7:  Winner:  Likely Santorum.  Placer:  Likely Romney

CD 8:  Winner: Santorum.  Placer:  Likely Gingrich

CD 9:  Winner: Lean Santorum.  Placer:  Lean Romney

Due to the split of Shelby County, CDs 7, 8, and 9 are harder to figure out.  CD 9, in particular, is almost sheer guesswork.

If these assignments hold (and there are many razor-thin margins for second place, and Lord knows about Shelby County):

Santorum - 18
Romney - 6
Gingrich - 3

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Alaska, North Dakota Updates

I apparently, once again, misread the Alaska GOP rules.  Last night's voting results were indeed binding on the GOP delegation; there is no additional ballot held at the District Conventions for fee-paying attendees, as I had previously stated.

The (approximate) resulting delegate allocation:

Romney - 8
Santorum - 7
Paul - 6
Gingrich - 3

This is based off of the total statewide vote; if anyone can find breakdowns by LD or precinct, I'd be able to come up with a more accurate result---in particular, Santorum is on the cusp of gaining another delegate, at Gingrich's expense.



North Dakota's rules are apparently quite similar; there are separate District Conventions which actually elect the delegates to the State Conventions---these were not what happened last night.  These began on January 17, and end on March 10.  The final delegation to Tampa may choose to assign itself proportionally based on the results of last night's vote---or they may not, it is entirely voluntary.  For now, I'll assume that they do---but if they don't, the results of the District and State Conventions may be quite important.

[Erc]

so you have Romney at 52.6% of total.  could dwindle towards the half mark these next few weeks.

And then he'll come shooting back up in April.

My current conservative (i.e. favorable-to-Santorum) projections have Romney coming in at 50.1% of total delegates at the end of this process, leaving the supers uncommitted.  That is, even if every single currently undeclared super declares against Romney, he still wins on the first ballot.

I'll be refining these "worst case for Romney" projections and scenarios in the coming weeks...but the future looks quite bright for Mr. Romney, even if it takes until June for his opponents to give up the ghost.

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I'd be surprised if Santorum won TN-9, in 2008 McCain won the district despite Huckabee winning the county, this seems like a similar situation.

Very plausible.

Without any other information, my proxy would be the votes for the individual delegates in a given district; if Gingrich did well, Santorum probably did too.  However, in TN-9 not even Gingrich had a slate of delegates.

Shelby County's election returns website is hilarious, by the way.


In other news, DeKalb finally reported in in Georgia, and those 9 delegates did indeed break 5-4 Romney, as expected.  Gingrich was just short of a majority in CD 4.

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April 3

With April comes the removal of the requirements that delegate allocation be proportional, and we have some WTA states again, simplifying our lives.

District of Columbia

Overview
19 Delegates (0.83% of total)
Primary
16 At-Large, WTA
3 RNC Members

DC Primary Rules

The winner of the primary receives all 16 At-Large delegates.

RNC Members

Robert Kabel
Anthony W. Parker
Betsy Warronen - Romney

Results (as of 4/4)

Romney won and receives all 16 delegates.

Maryland

Overview
37 Delegates (1.62% of total)
Primary
13 At-Large, WTA
24 by CD, WTA

13 delegates (this includes the RNC members) are awarded to the winner of the primary.

3 delegates are awarded to the winner of each of Maryland's 8 CDs, for a total of 24 by CD.

RNC Members

RNC Members are bound to the statewide winner.

Results (as of 4/4)

Romney swept all CDs and wins all 37 delegates.

Wisconsin

Overview
42 Delegates (1.84% of total)
Primary
18 At-Large, WTA
24 by CD, WTA

WI GOP Constitution

18 delegates (this includes the RNC members) are awarded to the winner of the primary.

3 delegates are awarded to the winner of each of Wisconsin's 8 CDs, for a total of 24 by CD.

RNC Members

RNC Members are bound to the statewide winner.

Results (as of 4/4)

Romney - 33
Santorum - 9

This is tentative, and still pending some CD results.

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April 24

Connecticut

Overview
28 Delegates (1.22% of total)
Primary
10 At-Large (Proportional, 20%)
15 by CD, WTA
3 RNC Members

CT GOP Rules

3 delegates are assigned to the winner of each of Connecticut's 5 CDs, for a total of 15 CDs.

10 delegates are assigned based on the statewide vote.  If a candidate gets a majority, they win all 10 delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are assigned among all candidates who meet a 20% threshold, proportionally to their share of the vote among all threshold-meeting candidates.  Fractions are rounded to the nearest whole number; if rounding errors occur, remove delegates from the loser or add delegates to the winner, as appropriate.

RNC Members

Jerry Labriola
John Frey
Pat Longo

Delaware

Overview
17 Delegates (0.74% of total)
Primary
17 At-Large, WTA

State Law leaves delegate allocation to the DE GOP, whose rules I cannot find at present.

The winner of the primary receives all 17 Delegates (including RNC Members)

RNC Members

RNC Members are bound to the primary winner.

New York

Overview
95 Delegates (4.16% of total)
Primary
34 At-Large, Proportional
58 by CD, WTA
3 RNC Members

NY State Law, see section 2-122-b.

2 delegates are assigned to the winner of each of New York's 29 CDs (2000 boundaries), for a total of 58.

34 delegates are assigned based on the statewide vote.  If a candidate gets a majority, they win all 10 delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are assigned among all candidates who meet a 20% threshold, proportional to their share of the vote among all threshold-meeting candidates.  Round all fractions to the nearest whole number.  If rounding errors result, add candidates to the winner or remove them from the loser, as appropriate.

RNC Members

Ed Cox - Romney
Lawrence Kadish - Gingrich
Jennifer Rich

Pennsylvania

Overview
72 Delegates (3.15% of total)
'Loophole' Primary / Convention
59 by CD
10 At-Large (Convention)
3 RNC Members

I cannot find the PA GOP Rules at present.

In each CD, voters directly elect 3 or 4 delegates.  The presidential preference of the delegates is not listed on the ballot.  A Presidential Preference Poll is also held, but it has no influence on the delegate allocation.

A full list of delegate candidates can be found here.

On June 10, the Pennsylvania GOP State Committee chooses the 10 At-Large delegates.

RNC Members
Robert A. Gleason, Jr.
Robert B. Asher - Romney
Christine Toretti

Rhode Island

Overview
19 Delegates (0.83% of total)
Primary
16 by CD (Proportional)
3 RNC Members

RI Primary Rules

A candidate must receive 15% of the statewide vote in order to receive any delegates.

In each of Rhode Island's 2 CDs, 8 delegates are distributed proportionally based on the results of the vote in that CD.  Round fractions to the nearest whole number.  Resolution of rounding errors is done by the RI GOP State Central Committee.

RNC Members

Mark Zaccaria - Romney
Joseph Trillo - Romney
Carol A. Mumford

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I'd be surprised if Santorum won TN-9, in 2008 McCain won the district despite Huckabee winning the county, this seems like a similar situation.

Very plausible.

Without any other information, my proxy would be the votes for the individual delegates in a given district; if Gingrich did well, Santorum probably did too.  However, in TN-9 not even Gingrich had a slate of delegates.

Shelby County's election returns website is hilarious, by the way.

I got the report from the Election Commission - Romney did win TN-9 which should give him 2 delegates and Santorum one.

Any other things to note?  I assume Santorum won all the other CDs, but did I get the second place finishers right?  (Romney second in 5 districts, Gingrich second in 3, Santorum second in 1)

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How did the Iowa district caucuses go?

They are this Saturday, along with the rest of Wyoming.

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Hopefully the Iowa district caucuses tell us about whether Ron Paul really does have an army of ninja delegates.

Hopefully we get some reliable reports from people outside the Paul camp...

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Based on the results from the Wyoming County Conventions, I now project that Romney will have a majority of the support at the Wyoming State Convention, and will be able to elect a full slate of 14 At-Large delegates.

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When exactly is Romney's relative delegate share most likely to be the smallest?

Between South Carolina and Florida, of course.

In all seriousness, if this continues as a competitive race to the finish...likely after Texas on May 29.

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The Ohio SoS has had the by-CD results posted for a long while (at least for the delegates-by-CD vote, if not for the delegates-at-large vote)...while I appreciate your efforts, it wasn't really necessary.

The only Super Tuesday state without an accurate by-CD breakdown is Tennessee (we know Santorum won CDs 1-8, and Romney won CD 9, but we don't know who came in second everywhere).

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In Mississippi, all three candidates received between one-sixth and one-half of the vote in all jurisdictions.  It therefore appears that the delegate allocation is:

Santorum - 13
Gingrich - 12
Romney - 12

A detailed delegate breakdown in Alabama will require digging through precinct-level data (which I will do tomorrow).  In the meantime, we can allocate the At-Large delegates:

Santorum - 10
Gingrich - 8
Romney - 8
Uncalled - 21

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Alabama CD Results (Provisional)

CD 1
Romney: 33128
Santorum: 30020
Gingrich: 24131

There are 358 votes in Clarke county that cannot be accurately split between CDs 1 and 7 (absentee votes and one split precinct); this does not alter the result that Romney wins the CD and Santorum is second, making the delegate split 2 Romney - 1 Santorum.

CD 2
Gingrich: 32632
Santorum: 29155
Romney: 26200

There are 8940 votes in Montgomery county that cannot accurately be split (absentee votes and 20! split precincts).  However, Gingrich is still guaranteed to win the CD overall.  While it may be mathematically possible for Romney to take 2nd place from the outstanding votes in Montgomery, this is exceedingly unlikely.  The resulting delegate split is 2 Gingrich - 1 Santorum.

CD 3
Santorum: 25408
Gingrich: 23833
Romney: 19633

There are 6525 votes in Montgomery county that cannot accurately be split (absentee votes and 6 split precincts).  Additionally, Cleburne county has yet to report.  However, it seems very unlikely that the order of candidates will change, making the resulting delegate split 2 Santorum - 1 Gingrich.

CD 4
Santorum: 39029
Gingrich: 25114
Romney: 21843

There are 2758 votes in Jackson, Blount, and Tuscaloosa counties that cannot accurately be split (absentee votes and 2, 4, and 2 split precincts, respectively).  These cannot change the outcome; the delegate split is 2 Santorum - 1 Gingrich.

CD 5
Santorum: 37095
Romney: 28273
Gingrich: 27221

There are 178 votes in Jackson county that cannot accurately be split (absentee votes and 2 split precincts).  However, this cannot change the outcome; the delegate split here is 2 Santorum - 1 Romney.

CD 6
Santorum: 36600
Romney: 35263
Gingrich: 32805

There are 12894 votes in Blount and Jefferson counties that cannot accurately be split (absentee votes and 4 and 16 split precincts, respectively).  The outstanding votes seem to slightly favor Santorum over Romney; thus it is quite likely Santorum retains his lead over Romney, and the delegate split is 2 Santorum - 1 Romney

CD 7
Santorum - 7805
Gingrich - 7170
Romney - 6974

There are 16075 votes in Clarke, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa and Jefferson counties that cannot accurately be split.  While, due to gerrymandering, it is very likely that most of these votes reside outside of CD7, this district is basically impossible to call.  Additionally, Greene county has yet to report.  If these standings hold, the allocation would be Santorum 2 - Gingrich 1.

Total Delegates by CD (total of 21)
Santorum - 12
Gingrich - 5
Romney - 4

Again, these are tentative; the winner in CD 6 may end up being Romney, and the CD 7 results are basically guesswork at this point.

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Gingrich's Prospects

I've talked about this before, but now that the key states (for Gingrich) of AL/MS have passed, I think it's a good time to return to this topic.

The bare minimum for Gingrich staying in the race was reaching 20% in AL/MS.  He well exceeded this, beating Romney in both the overall vote and (possibly) the delegate count.  That said, he probably hurt the ABR camp delegate-wise in those states; Santorum likely could have won majorities statewide and in most CDs and come close to sweeping the delegates.

But that's in the past.  What are his prospects going forward, both for picking up delegates himself and for helping (or hurting) the ABR cause?  I assume throughout that, should Gingrich drop out, a majority (but not all) of his support goes to Santorum, and Gingrich himself (and his represenatives at state conventions) are not prepared to strike a deal with the Romney camp (i.e. they really are in the ABR camp).

Puerto Rico:  There is apparently a 15% threshold, meaning Gingrich might struggle to win delegates himself.  The commonwealth is WTA if someone gets a majority, though; so staying in the race may help deprive Romney of a majority here.

Illinois:  This is a straight up loophole contest for delegates, so Gingrich straight-up hurts Santorum here without any chance to win delegates himself.

Louisiana Primary:  Gingrich should meet the 25% threshold here, and the state doesn't go WTA if you win a majority, so it helps the ABR camp for him to stay in here.

Missouri Caucuses:  As a caucus process, there's little harm in staying in, even though Gingrich himself is unlikely to get many delegates out of the process due to the way voting works at the State Convention.

District of Columbia:  WTA, so there's really no point...though Romney is likely to win here regardless.

Maryland:  WTA by jurisdiction, so he has little hope of getting anything himself, and may hurt Santorum in the few CDs he might have a chance of winning.

Wisconsin:  WTA by jurisdiction: he just plain hurts Santorum here.

Connecticut:  There's a slim chance he might help the ABR camp by denying Romney an overall majority here, but it's quite unlikely that Romney won't sweep the state regardless.

Delaware:  WTA, so unless he thinks he can win the state outright, he just hurts Santorum here.

New York:  He may hurt Santorum in a few CDs, but could play a critical role in stopping Romney getting 50% statewide and winning all the At-Large delegates.

Pennsylvania:  I'm not touching this one.

Rhode Island:  He won't make the 15% threshold, so no point.

Louisiana Caucus:  No reason not to compete, as it's a caucus state.

Indiana:  WTA by CD, he just hurts Santorum here.

North Carolina:  Purely proportional, no reason not to stay in.

West Virginia: WTA by jurisdiction; he just hurts Santorum here.

Oregon:  Purely proportional, no reason not to go for it.

Arkansas:  Although he is almost guaranteed to get at least one delegate from here if he stays in, he runs the significant chance of depriving Santorum of a majority and the chance to almost-sweep the state's delegates (as in AL/MS).

Kentucky:  Although it's proportional with a 15% cutoff statewide, he runs the risk of acting as a spoiler in the WTA CDs---likely net negative for the ABR camp.

Texas:  Purely proportional, no reason not to go for it.

California:  WTA by jurisdiction, he just hurts Santorum here.

New Jersey:  WTA, no reason to try and he hurts what slim chance Santorum had.

New Mexico:  Proportional, with a 15% cutoff.  Can't hurt to go for it.

South Dakota:  Proportional, with a 20% cutoff.  Likely hurts Santorum somewhat if he doesn't make it.

Nebraska, Montana:  Convention states, no reason not to try.

Utah:  Hah.

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Gingrich's Prospects: TL;DR

While there are many states where Gingrich staying in the race just straight up helps Romney, there are others where it's not so clear-cut, or he has a chance of hurting him.  Remember, not all Gingrich voters would immediately flock to Santorum if he dropped out.

If he can target his campaign to certain states and try to make himself as much of a non-factor as possible in the others, there may be a role for him yet.

Gingrich's Good States (he has a chance of winning delegates without hurting Santorum)
Puerto Rico, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, New Mexico, Nebraska, Montana

Gingrich's Middling States (he has a chance of winning delegates but may hurt Santorum, or he has a chance of helping Santorum even if he wins no or few delegates)
Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Kentucky, South Dakota

Gingrich's Bad States (no chance of winning delegates and he just hurts Santorum)
Illinois, DC, Wisconsin, Delaware, Rhode Island, Indiana, West Virginia, California, New Jersey

[Erc]

with Romney at 51.9% I suppose the chances of him finishing below 50 are pretty bleak (barring losses in the massive firewalls, NY/CA)?

I'd say so.  Santorum has to either pick up some surprising wins, or rack up huge margins in states where he can, to stop a Romney first ballot victory.

May is pretty good territory for Santorum, though, so unless he loses Pennsylvania there is no reason for him not to continue the race until California on June 5.

[Erc]

As I've hit the character limit in the main post, spinning off the full calendar to this post.

Calendar of Remaining Events

April 28:  Louisiana District Caucuses.
May 5:  Minnesota State Convention ends.
May 6:  Maine State Convention.
May 8:  Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia Primaries.
May 15:  Oregon Primary, Nebraska Beauty Contest.
May 22:  Arkansas, Kentucky Primary.
May 29:  Texas Primary.
June 2:  Louisiana, Missouri, Washington State Conventions.
June 5:  California, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota Primaries, Montana Beauty Contest.
June 9:  Indiana, Illinois State Conventions end.
June 10:  Nebraska County Conventions end.  Pennsylvania State Committee Summer Meeting.
June 16:  Iowa, Montana State Conventions end.
June 26:  Utah Primary.
July 14:  Nebraska State Convention.
July 23:  Final Delegate Selection Deadline (all states)

If this should come down to a credentials fight, a timeline of that process can be found here.

[Erc]

Aren't the ballots already drawn up?  I've got a sample ballot linked in the main Illinois post, and the Cook County Clerk still shows no Santorum delegates as candidates for the addresses I've checked in CD 5.

This is a real loophole primary; the vote for delegates, not the topline Presidential vote, is what matters.  (Occasionally it does make a difference; Dennis Hastert got elected as a Romney delegate in 2008 on the basis of his personal vote despite an overall McCain sweep)

I don't know what Romney offered, but if those delegates aren't on the ballot, Santorum's outta luck.

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By the way, will the remaining 6 delegates for the 2 Alabama CD's still up in the air ever be allocated in my lifetime? 

Unlikely; the AP still hasn't called a few delegates in TN, and they've had a week longer (and far more resources than I do) to figure those out.

[Erc]

I thought this would be of interest:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017792794_paul_supporters_sweep_two_seat.html

Paul's supporters may manage to take a huge bite out of Romney's projected delegate totals in Washington. The fact that they took all the delegates from two legislative district in King county is especially telling: he lost the county by over 20%.

Any ideas on how this will shake out at the state convention? (besides likely chaos as party operatives seek to avoid a Paul victory)

Paul may end up dominating a Seattle-area CD and pick up some delegates as a result.

Statewide---it makes the scenario I originally outlined (Romney camp dominating the State Convention and taking 34 out of 40 delegates) less likely, so the Santorum camp should be pleased at the news. 

It doesn't sound that Paul had the same sort of success everywhere, so I assume that the anti-Paul forces will still have a majority in most places at the State Convention.  I expect that resisting the Paulistas will prove more important that the Romney-Santorum fight, so an appropriately-divided Romney-Santorum slate is rather likely.  The 122 'superdelegates' at the State Convention would presumably also help out the anti-Paul forces as well.

If I can accumulate more solid data as to the results of the LD/County caucuses, I'll update my projection.  They run through to April 21, though, so don't hold your breath.

The State Convention ends June 2.

[Erc]

Santorum Loses Wyoming Delegate to Romney  by: Oreo
Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 15:37:06 PM EDT
 
Mitt Romney's supporters in Wyoming have successfully challenged a delegate to the party's national convention that had been awarded to rival Rick Santorum — showing the lengths the campaigns are willing to go to fight over a single delegate.
State GOP Chairwoman Tammy Hooper said Tuesday the delegate is now awarded to Romney. - US News
 
http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/5239/santorum-loses-wyoming-delegate-to-romney

Thanks for the heads up!  I'd had the delegate in the "Uncommitted" column pending resolution of the dispute.

[Erc]

EDIT: Torie beat me to the punch with a huge post, but maybe this will be of help as well.

The following appears to be the full contest procedure.  Throughout, RNC = Republican National Committee, and "state" includes the territories.

July 23:  All delegates and alternates must be selected by this date.

July 28:  The RNC secretary must receive the credentials of every delegate and alternates by this date, and their names are placed on the Temporary Roll.

If a state selects more delegates than it is entitled to (I'm looking at you, New Hampshire), they are automatically deemed under contest.

Any other contests must be filed with the RNC secretary by this date.  Only contests regarding delegates selected at-Large may be presented, unless the contest is due to the irregular or unlawful action of the State Committee or State Convention.

Any contested delegate does not have voting rights at the convention (or any of its committees) until the contest is permanently resolved by the vote of the convention of a whole, with one exception (see August 13, below).

The RNC secretary also receives the names of delegates elected to the Convention Committee on Credentials by this date.  The Committee on Credentials (which does not convene until the Convention itself) consists of one man and one woman from each state.

August 5:  Parties involved in contests must submit statements to the Committee on Contests by this date.  The Committee on Contests "promptly" hears the matter and prepares a statement stating the points of issue in the contest and their recommendation for its resolution, which is delivered to the RNC and the involved parties.  The involved parties have eight days to file written objections to this statement.

August 13 (or later):  The RNC votes on the resolution of contests.  The RNC may choose to restore convention voting rights to a contested delegate on the Temporary Roll at this time, except no delegate may vote on matters involving his own credentials.

August 27:  Appeals of RNC rulings on contests must be filed with the RNC secretary by this date. The Committee on Credentials hears these appeals, and submits its report to the Convention as a whole.  The Committee on Credentials may choose to restore convention voting rights to a contested delegate on the Temporary Roll at this time, except no delegate may vote on matters involving his own credentials.

The report of the Committee on Credentials is the first matter voted on by the convention as a whole.  Amendments to this report may be proposed, but no amendment may concern the credentials of delegates from more than one state.

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TL;DR:

1) Amendments to the final report of the Credentials Committee may be proposed from the floor; however, no amendment may affect the delegates from more than one state.

2) No delegate may ever participate in votes concerning his own credentials.

3) No contested delegate has voting rights at all at the convention unless they are restored by a vote of the Republican National Committee or the Committee on Credentials.


Basically, Florida's delegates indeed cannot vote on questions concerning their own credentials.  Arizona delegates can vote on questions concerning Florida's credentials if and only if either the Republican National Committee or the Committee on Credentials rules in their favor when they ruled on the contest earlier.

Another thought.  If the greenpapers are right all states are to complete their delegate selection by June 23, however in Utah are primary is June 26th.  Another challenge? Penalty?

The date in question is July 23, not June 23.  Nebraska cuts it the closest, with their State Convention not held until July 14.