2017 British Columbia election

[DC Al Fine]

So back on topic...

I really dislike the new Liberal plan to lend homeowners a down payment. Just a terrible idea.

[DC Al Fine]

How did a socon get on the NDP ticket? Instamembers, or did the NDP do a crappy job on their vetting?

[DC Al Fine]

The Mainstreet poll has fairly detailed demographic breakdowns, thanks to its big sample size.

http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/04/mainstreet-elxn-poll-ethnicity-religion.png

The NDP leads with Caucasians and Filipinos, while the Liberals lead with Chinese, South Asians, Koreans and others.

Very interesting. Usually this sort of stuff is "whites somewhat right, everyone else left", so to see all the different religious and ethnic divides is really neat.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah, if the NDP wins the popular vote by 10 points, i would say that an NDP majority is guaranteed and likely a super-majority. In 1972 the NDP won the popular vote 39% to 29% and in seats they took 38 to 10 for the Socreds. In 1991 the NDP took 41% and the BC Liberals 33%...in seats that translated into NDP 55 and Libs 17!

An interesting wrinkle in this pattern is that the Greens don't really fit the mould of "right wing vote splitter" that helped the NDP form government. I mean obviously if they win by ten points they should have a solid majority, but the shape of said government would look different from past NDP governments I'd imagine.

[DC Al Fine]

I am seeing a big range between pollsters. Is there a reason for this?

[DC Al Fine]

I am seeing a big range between pollsters. Is there a reason for this?

No one knows how to poll BC. What this all means is we're probably heading for a repeat of the last three elections in which the Liberals win by 3-5%.

But why does no one know how to poll BC? High level of immigrants?

Is the NDP here doing the most NDP thing ever by squandering their healthy lead as the election approaches?

The B.C NDP likely never had a healthy lead.  Just one outlier poll that gave the NDP a 10% lead.

In any other province, I think a hopeless Premier like Christy Clark would be thrown out with barely a better result than the NDP here received in 2001.   

Only in British Columbia can the B.C Liberals get reelected.

BC reminds me of what Stephen Harper was trying to set up federally. The NDP are too left wing for too many people, and without a Trudeau style liberal party to vote for, they are forced to hold their nose for the BC Liberals/Socreds.

[DC Al Fine]

A couple of new riding polls
Courtenay-Comox
BC Liberals (I) 44%
NDP 29%
Green 27%

Sannich Norh and The Islands
NDP (I) 34%
BC Liberal 34%
Green 32%

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/poll-b-c-liberals-lead-in-comox-dead-heat-in-saanich-north-1.18540492

That's not good for the Greens. That's pretty much the same result in Saanich North and the Islands as 2013.

[DC Al Fine]

If NDP and LIB are neck-to-neck then my guess is that NDP will win.  I assume the pollsters have adjusted their methods after the 2013 polling failure to pick up LIB support.  My guess they mostly have over adjusted and this time NDP will under-poll.

Perhaps you are right, although my gut reaction is to assume the left can't win unless there's two rightist parties because British Columbia

[DC Al Fine]

So which website is the best place to watch results come in? I haven't been a fan of CBC's redesign.

[DC Al Fine]

Thanks, much appreciated.

[DC Al Fine]

To add to what DL said it would be a ridiculously unstable government if every backbencher with a grievance can hold the government hostage.

[DC Al Fine]

In the same vein Adam, are those nonnegotiables actually nonegotiable? I can see Weaver overstating things so he can fall back to his actual nonnegotiables.

[DC Al Fine]

If BC actually did move to proportional representation - how long before the BC Liberals would split into two parties - a Conservative party and a Liberal Party. There would no longer be any incentive for this uneasy marriage of convenience to continue

IIRC there was a lot of churn in parties when NZ implemented PR. I'd guess something would break off almost immediately.

[DC Al Fine]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

[DC Al Fine]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

You do know I work for a polling company right? I just created my own crosstabs!

Yes. That was poor wording on my part.

Are you guys polling BC enough to get a large enough sample for meaningful crosstabs? Atlantic crosstabs are crappy enough, and the Okanagan is smaller than that