Florida Megathread

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Murphy will probably survive. He raises more than 500k which is impressive. I appreciate him, I hope he will become a US senator in the future, or a governor!

Murphy is a strong candidate, no doubt. However, Carl Domino (a very wealthy former State Representative who is also fairly charismatic and straight to the point-I once had lunch with him), and Adam Hasner (I worked on his 2012 campaign for nine months) are strong contenders. I have less hope for Gayle Harrell, the guy from Connecticut, or Ellen Andel, who is a Vice Mayor of a small, wealthy community.

I am 99% convinced that I will be working on the campaign against Murphy. I like Murphy, especially compared to that awful unmentionable Mayor turned Congresswoman from West Palm, but his seat is valuable next time around.

I really hope Hasner runs for many obvious reasons. He is the preferred candidate of the NRCC, which makes him by far the most electable candidate. He has never lost an election until last year, and was raised in the southern part of the district, so he is not necessarily carpet bagging (though it is far from his main political base, centered around the Delray Beach-Boca area) and is a strong fundraiser. The man is a natural politician, and I mean that in a good way for once. I expect an announcement from him soon.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So George LeMieux might be Scott's pick for VP...

I heard Allen West was also a contender a few months back.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Former State Rep. Carl Domino is set to challenge Patrick Murphy.

I like him, but he is viewed in these parts as a has-been. He has lost four out of seven races, and has become a perenial candidate. Despite his money, I can't see him winning the primary.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

We'll see if Democrats can eschew a primary in CD2:

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Good lord, they're relying on Corrine Brown to be their subtle negotiator? I knew the Florida Democrats are in a pretty bad state but I didn't know they were doing THAT poorly.

At least it is not Crazy Hat Lady Frederica Wilson.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Fmr. Congressman E. Clay Shaw died yesterday at the age of 74 after a longtime battle with lung cancer.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Sink is out.

I uh... I..... I..... But..... I....

I welcome the future rule of the Once and Future Governor.

Did Crist even govern during his time as Governor?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Hasner has put his house on the market at $50K below purchase price.

I saw this a few weeks ago, but was unsure where to post it and forgot about it. I am stoked for his potential campaign, and am eagerly awaiting his announcement.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Hasner has put his house on the market at $50K below purchase price.

I saw this a few weeks ago, but was unsure where to post it and forgot about it. I am stoked for his potential campaign, and am eagerly awaiting his announcement.

For what it's worth, I'd take having Justice and Graham in Congress if it means losing Murphy and Garcia.

I'm cool with that deal. If only we were the political bosses of Florida .

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Hasner has put his house on the market at $50K below purchase price.

I saw this a few weeks ago, but was unsure where to post it and forgot about it. I am stoked for his potential campaign, and am eagerly awaiting his announcement.

For what it's worth, I'd take having Justice and Graham in Congress if it means losing Murphy and Garcia.

Garcia sure, but I like Murphy for dedicating a lot of time and money to knocking off West when he could've just ran in FL-22 and for being a potential statewide candidate.

He was not going to win in FL-22. Lois Frankel was by far the most powerful candidate in that primary. Trust me on this one, as a resident of FL-22, and as a volunteer/intern (voluntern?) on the campaign that lost to Frankel, and I don't think his name came up once. He was in the race to challenge West. When rumors surfaced that West was moving to FL-18, he went to the local Democrats and made it clear that he was going to run against West, not for FL-22.

FL-22 was hardly a "safe" seat, for whatever it’s worth. We were the underdogs no doubt, but saying he "just could have" run in FL-22 understates the difficulty that Murphy would have faced. He did not have anything close to Frankel's name recognition, nor did have West's radicalism (and carpet bagging) to compete with.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

'Very good for Democrats, if true:

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I don't know if this poll is skewed or not, but Murphy is a strong candidate. It would surprise me if he doesn't become a senator or a governor one day.

No, this was basically an internal poll. This is as worthless as a quadriplegic soccer player.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

'Very good for Democrats, if true:

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I don't know if this poll is skewed or not, but Murphy is a strong candidate. It would surprise me if he doesn't become a senator or a governor one day.

No, this was basically an internal poll. This is as worthless as a quadriplegic soccer player.

It's got enough worth for Sabato to change the race from Toss-Up to Lean D.

Murphy is really, really popular due to the water contamination issue. The army engineer corps let some deadly algae got into the Indian River. Murphy has been working hard to get the attention of the federal government, and it is boosting his polls. I think he does have high approvals, but he is not leading Adam Hasner or Carl Domino by 30%; that’s just hooey. Solid Republican seats across the country are now “likely Republican” or “lean Republican.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Perry Thurston is running for AG. This is the same man who, after a fundraiser dinner, took all the leftovers from his host's house.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Horrible news. I would have supported Sink for Gov, but not House. At 65, IMHO, she's too old to be a House freshman, where seniority is so important. We need more rising stars like Jessica Ehrlich, but she's being forced to step aside for a has-been (while we run another has-been for Gov).

This is why the Florida Dems are such a joke.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Just heard (from SJoyce) that Rick Kriseman has been elected Mayor of St. Pete.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

'Very good for Democrats, if true:

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I don't know if this poll is skewed or not, but Murphy is a strong candidate. It would surprise me if he doesn't become a senator or a governor one day.

No, this was basically an internal poll. This is as worthless as a quadriplegic soccer player.

It's got enough worth for Sabato to change the race from Toss-Up to Lean D.

I think he does have high approvals, but he is not leading Adam Hasner or Carl Domino by 30%; that’s just hooey.

It's worth mentioning that most sources say Hasner is leaning against running.

Didn't see this until now, but what sources say that? He is selling his home to move to a new district, keep in mind. That is a big sign for something.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

'Very good for Democrats, if true:

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I don't know if this poll is skewed or not, but Murphy is a strong candidate. It would surprise me if he doesn't become a senator or a governor one day.

No, this was basically an internal poll. This is as worthless as a quadriplegic soccer player.

It's got enough worth for Sabato to change the race from Toss-Up to Lean D.

I think he does have high approvals, but he is not leading Adam Hasner or Carl Domino by 30%; that’s just hooey.

It's worth mentioning that most sources say Hasner is leaning against running.

Didn't see this until now, but what sources say that? He is selling his home to move to a new district, keep in mind. That is a big sign for something.

So, the NRCC say that none of Murphy's declared challengers are on the radar.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

'Very good for Democrats, if true:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't know if this poll is skewed or not, but Murphy is a strong candidate. It would surprise me if he doesn't become a senator or a governor one day.

No, this was basically an internal poll. This is as worthless as a quadriplegic soccer player.

It's got enough worth for Sabato to change the race from Toss-Up to Lean D.

I think he does have high approvals, but he is not leading Adam Hasner or Carl Domino by 30%; that’s just hooey.

It's worth mentioning that most sources say Hasner is leaning against running.

Didn't see this until now, but what sources say that? He is selling his home to move to a new district, keep in mind. That is a big sign for something.

So, the NRCC say that none of Murphy's declared challengers are on the radar.

IIRC, the NRCC did some fundraising for Andel. Which they wouldn't bother doing if they thought Hasner was incoming.

The NRCC didn't fundraise for Andel, but the entire female Republican delegation to the House did. However, an article on the Huffington Post did mention that the endorsements by promiment members (including Shelley Capito of West Virginia) is a sign that the establishment is getting anxious about Hasner running.

See, that and the fact that Hasner has been waiting for a long time are starting to make me doubt if he is going to run. Keep in mind, Andel is only the Vice Mayor of a nearby town, while Hasner was State House Majority leader. If he were not interested in running, he would have said so by now. So I suspect he is running for something, but I'm not sure for what.

I think he still is the strongest candidate against Murphy, and that the FL-18 race is his best option going into the future. If Hasner doesn't run, and that may happen, it won't be him being scared out of the race.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Jeff Atwater is seeking the FAU Presidency; assuming he is selected, his position as CFO opens up. Whoever is selected could enjoy a quick, easy rise to the Governor's mansion in 2018 if they play their cards right.

Joe Negron has stated that he won't run. Any guesses as to who will run?

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George LeMeiux is also in the running for the FAU Presidency, according to the Palm Beach Post.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Carlos Lopez-Cantera will be tapped tommorow by Governor Scott to be the next Lt. Governor of Florida.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Just another day in Florida.

Still, it'd be funny if he got convicted.

Good lord, he makes Allen West and Calvin Turnquest look center-left .

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Just another day in Florida.

Still, it'd be funny if he got convicted.

The GOP seems to be under the delusion that running minority candidates is "outreach," to minority voters, regardless of how insane, extreme and racist their candidates are. 

I just love how every time the GOP runs a minority candidate, people like you deride them as "token." Have you ever wondered that maybe, just maybe, one black Republican might be a real politician with real ambition and not just a show item for the GOP??

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

J.C. Watts has actually been elected statewide office before, to the Oklahoma Corporation Commission in 1990, serving until his election to Congress in 1994.

Indeed, Watts would be a much stronger candidate than Scott. The carpetbagging issue might bedevil him however.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Eh, I may have accidentally clicked on another link on the website and not realized it.

Good for you - will you sit out in a Crist-Scott race?

I guess I'd have to support Crist by default. I will never support Scott, but I'm not going to help Crist in his campaign.

Congressional races are fun to work on. You can make good connections and learn valuable experience in a more intimate setting.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'll hopefully be working a local State House/State Senate campaign, but if Crist needs help, I wouldn't turn him down.

I'm thinking of doing the same, as the FL-18 race lacks a strong candidate, plus it has a primary, something I didn't have to contend with in 2012. I would hate to start working for Ellen Andel in March only to have to suddenly join Carl Domino's campaign in August.