Incumbent DeWine (R) with Fairly Big Lead Over Brown (D) in Ohio

[Sam Spade]

This is the reason why I held the race at lean Rep. after Rasmussen's polling.  That is still the correct call.

I do expect Brown to get this race closer and make it competitive in the end; the real question is how much and a lot of that could depend on forces outside either his or DeWine's control.

[Sam Spade]

I should add:  The same thing needs to happen to Brown after the primary that I said should happen to Blackwell in the other thread.

However, because there is not a formidable primary opponent challenging Brown, I don't consider this as do-or-die as I do for Blackwell.

[Sam Spade]

Anyone who thinks this is "over" because of a high single-digit lead 6 months before the election is stupid.  I still think DeWine will win by about 5 points or so.

11 points is a single-digit lead??

Still, I generally agree with your prediction.  Henceforth, the Lean Rep designation.

[Sam Spade]

Any incumbent who polls below 50 percent cannot be considered safe, but I do think that Dewine has a clear edge in this one.

That is generally true, but it depends on how hard undecideds are pushed in part,  I'd think.

Very true. 

Typically, Mason-Dixon does not push its undecideds as hard as Rasmussen or SurveyUSA (which pushes the hardest of all), but less than some of the university polls.  They are comparable in undecided pushing to Research2000 and Strategic Vision (I/R), to name a couple.