Taiwan Elections 2008

[Hash]

Firstly, legislative elections on January 12, and presidential election on March 22.

Legislative Election

The Legislative Yuan has 225 members: 168 members elected for a 3 year term in multi-seat constituencies, 8 members representing the aboriginals, 41 members elected by PR and 8 members representing the overseas Chinese also elected by PR. In August 2004 the Yuan voted to:

-halve the number of seats from 225 to 113
-switch to FPTP + party list Additional Member System
-increase the terms of members from 3 to 4 years, to synchronize the legislative and presidential elections.

The new electoral system will include 73 plurality seats (one for each electoral district), 6 seats for aboriginals, with the remaining 34 seats to be filled from party lists with a 5% threshold.

2005 National Assembly elections (It elected an ad hoc National Assembly whose only function was to serve as a constitutional convention in order to approve or reject amendments to the constitution already proposed by the legislature. The Nat. Assembly is now abolished)
IN FAVOR OF THE AMENDMENTS:
DPP 42.52% 127
KMT 38.92% 117
Chinese People's Party  1.08% 3
Peasant Party 0.4% 0.4% 1
Civil Party 0.22% 1
AGAINST:
TSU 7.05% 21
PFP 6.11% 18
Independents List 1 1.68% 5
New Party 0.88% 3
NPSU 0.65% 2
TIP 0.3% 1
Indies List 2 0.19% 1

2004 results:
Pan-Blue [114]
KMT 34.9% 79
PFP 14.78% 34
New Party 0.13% 1
Pan-Green [101]
DPP 37.98% 89
TSU 8.28% 12
Others [10]
Non-Partisan Solidarity Union 3.86% 6
Non partisans 4

Presidential

The candidates are Frank Hsieh/Su Tseng-chang for the DPP-TSU and Ma Ying-jeou/Vincent Siew for the KMT-PFP-New Party. A poll on December 29 showed Ma with 52% as opposed to 23% for Hsieh.

2004 results:
Chen Shui-bian and Annette Lu (DPP) 50.11%
Lien Chan and James C.Y. Soong (KMT-PFP) 49.89%

[jaichind]

Prediction:

ROC LiFaYuan results:

73 FPTP:    KMT and allies - 50, DPP and allies - 23
6 Aborigine:   KMT and allies - 6, DPP and allies - 0
34 Party List:  KMT and allies - 21, DPP and allies - 11, TSU - 2

Total: KMT and allies - 77, DPP and allies - 34, TSU - 2

ROC Prez reults:

KMT (Ma) - 61%
DPP (Hsieh) 38%

[jaichind]

Effect of LiFaYuan Elections of 1/12/2008 on the 3/22/2008 elections on Hsieh (DPP) campaign:

If DPP captures out of 113 seats:

a) 45+ seats:  Positive. This means KMT would have done worse than expected leading to turmoil between KMT factions.  At the same time President Chen (DPP) will have shown he has led the party to a better than expected result even with an extremist agenda.  This will lead to a decrease in Hiseh-Chen conflict uniting the DPP to do battle in March 2008 in their belief there is a majorty for the radical Taiwan Independence agenda.  Chances of DPP victory: 55%.

b) 40-45 seats: Negative.  While this result falls below DPP and President Chen hopes, it is not bad given the poor approval ratings President Chen and the DPP have.  This means President Chen can stay on as Chairman of the DPP claiming the result to be a draw.  President Chen will continue pushing his radical agenda from January to March 2008, marginalizing Hsieh.  It will be a de facto Ma (KMT) versus Chen (DPP) affair in a rerun of the 1998 Taipei Mayorial election.  Ma beat Chen in 1998 and will will again.  Chances of DPP victory: 20%.

c) 35-39 seats: Positive.  At decisive defeat for the DPP and President Chen's radical agenda. Hsieh can his faction could turn on Chen and force him to resign as Chairman of the DPP.  Hsieh can then run on a centrist program claiming that his administration will be not that different from the KMT while keeping out the KMT pro-unification radicals as well as being more competent then Ma.  Rest of the DPP will fall into line as Chen's power over the DPP will dramatically weakened.  When Hsieh back in early 2007 demanded that the LiFaYuan and Presidential elections are to be held separately (over the objections of President Chen), he had the scenario in mind.  He wants to knock out his main DPP rival (President Chen) and then battle it out with KMT's Ma.  Chances of DPP victory: 33%

d) 34 or less: Negative.  This would be a disaster for DPP.  DPP could split between pro-Chen and pro-Hsieh blocks.  The powerful DPP New Tide faction, which despises both Chen and Hsieh, could re-take control of the party leading to even more turmoil.  The DPP will be too busy with a multi-front civil war within the party to worry about the general election which based on this result could be won anyway.  The election will be more about how to secure resources for more intra-party battles after the election.  Chances of DPP victory: 3%

I think case c) is the most likely.  I hope for d) but many elections on the Republic of China of which I am from has disappointed me so I doubt it.  Many had made the mistake of underestimating the DPP.  I do not plan to.

[jaichind]

KMT and DPP internals that have leaked out seem to agree on the following abou the 73 FPTP elections.

DPP significantly ahead: 9
Neck to Neck: 20
KMT significantly ahead: 44

I suspect most the Neck to Neck ones will break DPP on the tradition of a list minute swing to the DPP.  On the other hand, DPP leaks of internal polls for the party list is dire five days before the election and historically the last minute surge for the DPP should come about a week before the election.  This the DPP cannot count on a last minute surge of support the could be looking at a massive route across the board. 

[jaichind]

73 FPTP status

Independent cities/counties                     Status

Taipei City 1st                                           KMT solid
Taipei City 2nd                                          KMT leaning
Taipei City 3rd                                           KMT solid
Taipei City 4th                                           KMT solid
Taipei City 5th                                           KMT leaning
Taipei City 6th                                           KMT solid
Taipei City 7th                                           KMT solid
Taipei City 8th                                           KMT solid
KaoShiung City 1st                                    KMT solid   
KaoShiung City 2nd                                   DPP leaning
KaoShiung City 3rd                                   KMT solid (due to DPP rebel)
KaoShiung City 4th                                   KMT leaning
KaoShiung City 5th                                   DPP solid
Taipei County 1st                                      KMT solid
Taipei County 2nd                                     KMT leaning
Taipei County 3rd                                      DPP leaning/tossup
Taipei County 4th                                      KMT leaning/tossup
Taipei County 5th                                      DPP leaning/tossup
Taipei County 6th                                      KMT solid
Taipei County 7th                                      KMT leaning
Taipei County 8th                                      KMT solid
Taipei County 9th                                      KMT solid
Taipei County 10th                                    KMT leaning
Taipei County 11th                                    KMT solid
Taipei County 12th                                    KMT solid

Taiwan Province
Yilan County                                              KMT leaning
Taoyuan County 1st                                  KMT solid
Taoyuan County 2nd                                 KMT solid
Taoyuan County 3rd                                  KMT leaning
Taoyuan County 4th                                  KMT solid
Taoyuan County 5th                                  KMT solid
Taoyuan County 6th                                  KMT solid
TsinTsu County                                          KMT leaning
Miaoli County 1st                                       KMT solid
Miaoli County 2nd                                      KMT solid
TaiChung County 1st                                 KMT leaning
TaiChung County 2nd                                KMT solid
TaiChung County 3rd                                 KMT leaning/tossup
TaiChung County 4th                                 KMT solid
TaiChung County 5th                                 KMT solid
ChangHwa County 1st                               KMT solid
ChangHwa County 2st                               KMT solid
ChangHwa County 3st                               KMT solid
ChangHwa County 4st                               DPP leaning (due to KMT rebel)                           
NanTou County 1st                                    KMT solid
NanTou County 2nd                                   KMT leaning
YunLin County 1st                                      KMT leaning
YunLin County 2nd                                     KMT leaning/tossup
JiaYi County 1st                                          DPP leaning
JiaYi County 2nd                                         DPP solid
TaiNan County 1st                                      DPP leaning/tossup
TaiNan County 2nd                                     DPP solid
TaiNan County 3rd                                      DPP solid
KaoShiung County 1st                                DPP leaning
KaoShiung County 2nd                               DPP leanig/tossup
KaoShiung County 3rd                                DPP leaning
KaoShiung County 4th                                DPP solid
PingDong County 1st                                  KMT leaning
PingDong County 2nd                                 KMT solid
PingDong County 3rd                                  DPP solid
TaiDong County                                          KMT solid
HuaLian County                                          KMT solid
PengHu County                                          KMT solid
KeeLong City                                              KMT solid
TsinTsu City                                                KMT solid
TaiChung City 1st                                       KMT solid
TaiChung City 2nd                                      KMT solid
TaiChung City 3rd                                       KMT leaning
JiaYi City                                                     KMT solid (due to DPP rebel)
TaiNan City 1st                                           KMT solid
TaiNan City 2nd                                          KMT leaning/tossup

Fujian Province
JinMen County                                            KMT solid
LianJiang County                                        KMT solid


Total Count:

KMT Solid                        40
KMT Leaning                   14
KMT Leaning/tossup         4

DPP Solid                          6
DPP Leaning                     5
DPP Leaning/tossup         4

I am expecting a last minute DPP surge to take some of the KMT leaning races over to the DPP.
If no such surge comes then DPP is in big trouble.

[jaichind]

Shien Fu-Shiung (沈富雄)
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B2%88%E5%AF%8C%E9%9B%84
Fromer DPP MP now turned political commentator after leaving the DPP a couple of month ago just predicted the DPP will win 22 FPTP seats and 12 Party list seats. 
This is very similar to my prediction of 23 FPTP seats and 11 Party list seats for DPP.
He might be right about the Party list given the KMT and radical unificationist splinter New Party just had a spat over the party list vote.  Some radical reunificationists might vote NP for party list but not enough to push NP over the 5% threshold wasting those vote.  Time will tell.

[jaichind]

KMT's internals report that for the 73 FPTP and 6 Aborigine seats.
50 KMT ahead, 14 DPP ahead, 15 neck-to-neck.
On the reasonable assumption that for the 6 Aborigine seats it should be 5 KMT ahead, 1 neck-to-neck.  The KMT projection for the 73 FPTP are
45 KMT ahead, 14 DPP ahead, 14 neck-to-neck.

This looks similar to my projection a couple of days ago which had:
40 KMT solid, 14 KMT leaning, 8 neck-to-neck, 5 DPP leaning, 6 DPP solid
plus the caveat that a historical late DPP surge should push some of the KMT leaning into neck-to-neck and some neck-to-neck into DPP ahead.

[jaichind]

Final Predition:


73 FPTP status

Independent cities/counties                     Status                                                   Prediction

Taipei City 1st                                           KMT solid                                         KMT
Taipei City 2nd                                          KMT leaning                                     KMT
Taipei City 3rd                                           KMT solid                                        KMT
Taipei City 4th                                           KMT solid                                         KMT
Taipei City 5th                                           KMT leaning                                     KMT
Taipei City 6th                                           KMT solid                                         KMT
Taipei City 7th                                           KMT solid                                         KMT
Taipei City 8th                                           KMT solid                                         KMT
KaoShiung City 1st                                    KMT solid                                         KMT
KaoShiung City 2nd                                   DPP leaning                                      DPP
KaoShiung City 3rd                                   KMT leaning                                     KMT
KaoShiung City 4th                                   KMT leaning                                     KMT
KaoShiung City 5th                                   DPP solid                                          DPP
Taipei County 1st                                      KMT solid                                         KMT
Taipei County 2nd                                     KMT leaning                                     KMT
Taipei County 3rd                                      DPP leaning/tossup                           DPP
Taipei County 4th                                      KMT leaning/tossup                          DPP
Taipei County 5th                                      DPP leaning/tossup                           DPP
Taipei County 6th                                      KMT solid                                         KMT
Taipei County 7th                                      KMT leaning/tossup                          DPP
Taipei County 8th                                      KMT solid                                         KMT
Taipei County 9th                                      KMT solid                                         KMT
Taipei County 10th                                    KMT leaning                                     KMT
Taipei County 11th                                    KMT solid                                         KMT
Taipei County 12th                                    KMT solid                                         KMT

Taiwan Province
Yilan County                                              KMT leaning                                    KMT
Taoyuan County 1st                                  KMT solid                                         KMT
Taoyuan County 2nd                                 KMT solid                                         KMT
Taoyuan County 3rd                                  KMT leaning                                     KMT
Taoyuan County 4th                                  KMT solid                                         KMT
Taoyuan County 5th                                  KMT solid                                         KMT
Taoyuan County 6th                                  KMT solid                                         KMT
TsinTsu County                                          KMT leaning/tossup                         DPP
Miaoli County 1st                                       KMT solid                                        KMT
Miaoli County 2nd                                      KMT solid                                        KMT
TaiChung County 1st                                 KMT leaning/tossup                         KMT
TaiChung County 2nd                                KMT solid                                         KMT
TaiChung County 3rd                                 KMT leaning/tossup                          DPP
TaiChung County 4th                                 KMT solid                                          KMT
TaiChung County 5th                                 KMT solid                                          KMT
ChangHwa County 1st                               KMT solid                                          KMT
ChangHwa County 2st                               KMT solid                                          KMT
ChangHwa County 3st                               KMT solid                                          KMT
ChangHwa County 4st                               KMT leaning/tossup                           DPP
NanTou County 1st                                    KMT solid                                          KMT
NanTou County 2nd                                   KMT leaning                                      KMT
YunLin County 1st                                      KMT leaning                                     KMT
YunLin County 2nd                                     KMT leaning/tossup                         DPP
JiaYi County 1st                                          DPP leaning                                      DPP
JiaYi County 2nd                                         DPP solid                                          DPP
TaiNan County 1st                                      DPP leaning/tossup                           DPP
TaiNan County 2nd                                     DPP solid                                          DPP
TaiNan County 3rd                                      DPP solid                                          DPP
KaoShiung County 1st                                DPP leaning                                       DPP
KaoShiung County 2nd                               DPP leaning/tossup                            DPP
KaoShiung County 3rd                                DPP leaning                                       DPP
KaoShiung County 4th                                DPP solid                                           DPP
PingDong County 1st                                  KMT leaning                                      KMT
PingDong County 2nd                                 KMT solid                                          KMT
PingDong County 3rd                                  DPP leaning                                       DPP
TaiDong County                                          KMT solid                                          KMT
HuaLian County                                          KMT solid                                          KMT
PengHu County                                          KMT solid                                           KMT
KeeLong City                                              KMT solid                                          KMT
TsinTsu City                                                KMT solid                                          KMT
TaiChung City 1st                                       KMT solid                                          KMT 
TaiChung City 2nd                                      KMT solid                                          KMT
TaiChung City 3rd                                       KMT leaning                                     KMT
JiaYi City                                                     KMT leaning                                      KMT
TaiNan City 1st                                           KMT solid                                          KMT
TaiNan City 2nd                                          KMT leaning/tossup                           DPP

Fujian Province
JinMen County                                            KMT solid                                         KMT
LianJiang County                                        KMT solid                                          KMT


Total Count:

KMT Solid                        38
KMT Leaning                   13
KMT Leaning/tossup         8

DPP Solid                          5
DPP Leaning                     5
DPP Leaning/tossup          4
 
Prediction:   
PPTP KMT/allies 52, DPP/allies 21
Aborigine: KMT/allies6, DPP/allies:0
Party List: KMT 20, DPP 12, TSU 2

Total: KMT/allies 78, DPP/allies 33, TSU 2

[jaichind]

I wanted to give the KMT more in my prediction.  But I remember one poll where I saw that "44% of people on Taiwan Province did not know that Beijing will be hosting the 2008 Olympics."  I will not go wrong by underestimating the intelligence of my compatriots.  DPP deserves way less than 33 seats.

[jaichind]

DPP is targeting 50 seats but most think that is not realistic.  The realists in the DPP are mostly saying 45 seats.  Problem is that assuming they can win 1 seat in the Aborigini section (which is possible not likely), and 13 seats in the party list (also possible but not likely), they have to win 31 seats in the FPTP section.  Going district by district, unless there is some sort of pro-DPP megawave on election date I just cannot see how they can do that.  I can see maybe 26 or 27 but no more then that.   And that is with everything breaking for them.  I just do not see how they get to 45.

[The Mikado]

Poor Taiwan.  Returning to power the party of Chiang Kai-Shek...ick.  Not to mention that it is a party favoring "gradual reunification" with the tyrannical despotic regime on the other side of the straits.

[minionofmidas]

Poor Taiwan.  Returning to power the party of Chiang Kai-Shek...ick.  Not to mention that it is a party favoring "gradual reunification" with the tyrannical despotic regime on the other side of the straits.

It's not as if the DPP is much better. Do I need to remind you of the stunts surrounding Chen Shui Bian#s reelection?

Genuine political choice isn't happening in a country this dependent on the US anyways. Look at South Korea.

[Hash]

Poor Taiwan.  Returning to power the party of Chiang Kai-Shek...ick.  Not to mention that it is a party favoring "gradual reunification" with the tyrannical despotic regime on the other side of the straits.

As Lewis said, the DPP isn't filled with angels and it's not all roses.

[jaichind]

Decisive KMT victory

73 FPTP seats: KMT+allies 60, DPP+allies 13
6 Aborigine seats: KMT+ allies 6, DPP+allies 0
34 Party List seats: KMT 20, DPP 14

Total: KMT+allies 86, DPP+allies 27
DPP failed to cross 1/4 of the seats.  The KMT and allies now can change the ROC constitution at will.  This is the biggest Legislative victory of the KMT since its 1991 National Assembly election landslide victory.

DPP did better than expected on Party List votes due to the poor performance of TSU (which failed to crsoss 5%) and better than expected performance of NP (which took votes from KMT without crossing 5%)

Key now is will Hsieh and the rest of the DPP demand President Chen resign from DPP Chairman.  A DPP civil war may be in the cards.

[jaichind]

Chen Shui-Bien just resigned as DPP chairman.  Hsieh will most likely take over as DPP chairman on monday.  Not sure this is the end of Chen within the DPP, although resigning will mean that the surviving New Tide (supported and DPP candidate Su) and the Hsieh faction will now battle it out over control of the party both before and after the March Presidential election.  Chen might hang back an reassert himself sometime after or even before the election.  Time will tell.

[True Democrat]

Does Taiwan still have proxy seats for mainland China?

[Sensei]

Those are going to be some one-sided fights now...

[jaichind]

Does Taiwan still have proxy seats for mainland China?

When ROC set up Party Lists system, the KMT meant it as proxy seats to represent Mainland China.  Of coures the pro-independence DPP does not read it that way.  Both parties reads the rules of Party List seats to fit their views.

[jaichind]

So what does this mean for the March 2008 election. 

The latest United Daily News (a pro-KMT paper) shows Ma leading Hsieh 60 to 18.  A 42 point gap. 

Back in the 2004 election, the Jan 18th 2004 United Daily News poll showed Lien-Soong ahead of Chen-Lu 42 to 35.  Chen went on to win 50.1 to 49.9 after being "shot" with two bullets the day before the election. 

A look at the Party List results should give us some clues to March 2008.

Pan-Green Parties
   DPP                           36.9%
   TSU                             3.5%
   Citizen Party                 .5%
   New Consittution          .3%
   Third Society                 .5%
   Green Party                   .6%
--------------------------------------
                                     42.3%

Pan-Blue Parties
    KMT                            51.2%
    NP                                3.9%
    Farmer's Party               .6%
    Non-Party Bloc               .7%
    Home Party                    .8%
    Hakka Party                   .4%
-----------------------------------------
                                       57.7%

I had expected something like

DPP                             33
TSU                               6
Other Pan-Green          2
------------------------------------
                                    41

KMT                             54
NP                                 2
Other Pan-Blue             3
-----------------------------------
                                    59

The DPP took some votes from TSU and NP took some votes from KMT from my baseline.

Turnout was 59%.  I expected Presidential election turnout to be around 75%.  The extra 16% of the electorate will most like be more pro-Green than pro-Blue.  But many of pro-Green will vote Ma due to personality appeal as well the need to avoid a split government which was the root of gridlock the last 8 years.  The 59% that voted in the LiFaYuan elections will have some shifting toward Ma for the same reason. 

All in all, Ma should win over Hsieh something like 60 to 40.

[jaichind]

Prediction for March 22 2008 ROC Presidential Election

                                                              Ma                   Hsieh
Independent cities/counties
   Taipei City                                           68                      32
   KaoShiung City                                   48                       52
   Taipei County                                      62                      38

Taiwan Province
   Keelong City                                        70                      30
   Yilan County                                        55                      45
   Taoyuan County                                  66                      34
   Hsintsu County                                    77                      23
   Hsiintsu City                                         65                     35
   Miaoli County                                       75                      25
   Taichung County                                  59                      41   (bellwether county)
   Taichung City                                       61                     39
   Changhwa County                               59                      41   (bellwether county)
   Nantou County                                    66                      34
   Yunlin County                                      51                      49
   Jiayi County                                         47                      53
   Jiayi City                                              50                      50
   Tainan County                                     45                      55
   Tainan City                                          47                      53
   Kaoshiung County                               48                      52
   Pingdong County                                 51                      49
   Taidong County                                   78                      22
   Hualian County                                    79                      21
   Penghu County                                    65                      35
   

Fujian Province
   Jinmen County                                     96                        4
   Lianjian County                                    93                       7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                        59                      41

[jaichind]

Latest polls.

United Daily.  Ma 54 Hsieh 23
China Times.  Ma 45 Hsieh 23
Apple Daily.    Ma 40 Hsieh 18
DPP internal.  Ma 45 Hsieh 30

United Daily is very pro-KMT and China Times leaning KMT.  DPP supporters tend to shy away from giving up their preferences to either paper.  Apple Daily is neutral.  By the same logic KMT supporters tend not to respond to the pro-DPP pollsters that the DPP uses.  Traditionally United Daily tends to measure well KMT support but one needs to add 10-15% to its DPP poll numbers to get an accurate picture.  Using that logic with the United Daily poll, we get Ma 54 Hsieh 38.

Back in the 2004 election with KMT's Lien-Soong ticket versus the DPP's Chen-Lu ticket, at this stage in the election the United Daily poll showed Lien 40 Chen 37.  Chen went on to win 50.1% versus 49.9% after being "shot at" the day before the election.

[jaichind]

Lated 2/14/08 United Daily (pro-KMT paper) poll for 3/22/2008 election

Ma-Shiao (KMT)   56%
Hsieh-Su (DPP)    18%

Back in 2004
2/13/2004 United Daily poll for 3/20/2004 election

Lien-Soong (KMT/PFP)  41%
Chen-Lu (DPP)              37%

Result of 3/20/2004 election (Chen and Lu were "shot" on 3/19/2004 leading to
an unexpected surge of support to Chen-Lu the next day)

Lien-Soong (KMT/PFP) 49.9%
Chen-Lu (DPP)             50.1%

[jaichind]

Latest polls.

3/1/08   Gallup              Ma (KMT) 40%  Hsieh (DPP) 20%  -> projects a 56-44 Ma Victory
3/1/08   United Daily     Ma (KMT) 55%  Hsieh (DPP) 18%  -> projects a 58-42 Ma Victory
2/29/08 TVBS                Ma (KMT) 54%  Hsieh (DPP) 30%  -> projects a 60-40 Ma Victory

Back in 2004
2/29/04 United Daily      Lien (KMT) 38%  Chen (DPP) 35%
3/1/04   TVBS                 Lien (KMT) 43%  Chen (DPP) 36%

Chen (DPP) ended up winning the 2004 election 50.1% to 49.9% after some funny business where he was shot the day before the election.

[ag]

If everything is ok, I'll be there next week - until just a couple of days before the vote. Will report here on the campaign

[jaichind]

Last debate before 3/22 election held on 3/9.  Concensus was that Ma (KMT) won the debate although that mostly reflected his greater support than Hsieh (DPP).

Latest Polls (on 3/9/08)

United Daily.  Ma 52 (+3)  Hsieh 22 (+1)
China Times Ma 49 (-4) Hsieh 22 (+1)
TVBS Ma 50 (-4) Hsieh 31 (+3)
Apple Daily Ma 41 (+4) Hsieh 20 (+1) -> Projects a 57-43 Ma victory

All four are pro-KMT media outfits, although Apple Daily is mostly neutral.  Pro-DPP media outfits does not usually do polling.

Back in 2004

Poll from 3/8/04 United Daily had Lien (KMT) 41 and Chen (DPP) 38
Poll from 3/8/04 TVBS had Lien (KMT) 40 and Chen (DPP) 36

Chen went on to win the 3/20/04 election 50.11% to 49.89% after being wounded by a shot on 3/19/04.