Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Devout Centrist]

One useful feature on HuffPo's poll aggregation is the ability to look at the aggregate numbers for certain crosstabs.  E.g., here is the trendline for all polls on Trump's job approval among Republicans only:

link

Currently at 80.6% approve, 15.5% disapprove, for +65.1% approval.  Two weeks ago it was at +71%.

Damn that's about at Bush levels

[Devout Centrist]

Gallup:

39(-3)/55(+1)

Rip

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

Please try harder. Hardly anyone will get angry at that.

[Devout Centrist]

Now is not the time for trump and republicans to give up. They have to fight through the headwinds and deliver on things.

Trump threw congress a bone with the RAISE act. There is still time to get things done.

General kelly needs to get the WH in order first, but you can't give up so early.

The media has actually tended to greatly over exaggerate when trump gets a "win". Remember the state of union address? 

It is too early to throw in the towel.

Threw a bone? The reports are this thing is DOA in congress you already have Graham bashing it and God knows how McCain, Flake, and Heller feel on it

Graham bashed a few aspects of it, but a version of it could certainly get through. Increase the amount admitted, get rid of english requirement, and it could maybe get through.

Really doubt Rubio or the business wing will get behind this

[Devout Centrist]

ARG! has spoken

[Devout Centrist]

Some of y'all really need to get help for your trump derangement syndrome.

The fact is that healthy, functioning adults don't need to check this stuff daily in order to feel good about themselves.

It honestly feels like a non-negligible amount of you people's lives are committed to destruction of your political enemies.

For example, I am convinced that the poster "mondale won 1 state" does not have a day job.

Methinks the man projects a bit too much

[Devout Centrist]

Gallup:
34(-1)
60(+1)

[Devout Centrist]

Fun fact- in January 1983, Ronald Reagan's approval rating was 35%. He went on to come within 10,000 votes of winning every single electoral vote.

Fun fact: that was during a recession

[Devout Centrist]

Fridays as dump day made sense pre-social media. Much of it would just slip unnoticed. But today? It doesn't matter.

[Devout Centrist]

Guys, that poll of WV is garbage: please don't take it seriously. The only metric anybody should have any credence in is the fact that Manchin has likely almost wrapped up his re-election.

Give all the undecideds/others to the GOP in each contest and it might be somewhat accurate; Trump and Capito are probably around 60% in WV, and Justice is probably around 55%.

I don't think it's that bad. I think Clinton lost so badly in WV because of her comments on coal mining and Obama era-regulations. I think it will definitely trend D in 2020, even if it stays solid R.

[Devout Centrist]

Im not sure how many times I need to post this but you should never read too much into the daily fluctuations of a tracking poll. They are prone to wild jumps for no reason.

Well at least you gave me a good laugh.

[Devout Centrist]

Those Texas figures are brutal.

If the Dems nominate the right candidate and Trump is still on the ballot 2020 could really be the election Texas turns blue (or red in Atlas colors).

You will not live to see that, because of the political polarization even if they do not like Trump not vataran for a Democrat

It's well known Texas will be a blue state in the future. The growing minority population will be too much for the GOP to adapt.

That is a nonsense myth, everyone knows that most of that "minority population" never votes for laziness or for being illegal

I don't know how bad things are in FYROM, but we don't have parties that support those things here.