UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour would gain Cardiff North from the Tories and Cardiff Central from the LibDems, while the Tories would gain Brecon & Radnor from the LibDems. Labour would also be pressing very hard in Arfon (Plaid held). Wales doesn't have many marginal seats, basically.

[Phony Moderate]

The next ICM (due out in a few days, right?) will probably be the most critical poll of this month, given that it showed a 4 point Tory lead last month.

[Blair]

As Ascroft said, national polls just show the mood of the country not the likelyhood of seats

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hey, Clint Eastwood, since you love empty chairs so much, you're going to love these UK debates.

I think that in this case you'd have Russell Brand take his place.  Because, you know, he'd vote Conservative.

[Joe Republic]

How bad is the Lib Dem bloodbath in the Southwest going to be?  So many of these seats already have them defending pitiful majorities.

[Phony Moderate]

How bad is the Lib Dem bloodbath in the Southwest going to be?  So many of these seats already have them defending pitiful majorities.

As previously mentioned, the Lib Dems are more popular than Jesus in the seats that they are defending (or so we are told).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's more or less the not particularly secret way the Tories are hoping to squeak out a majority. Hold the line elsewhere and beat the sh!t out of their coalition partner.

[Phony Moderate]

Labour back into the lead with YouGov, 35-34.

[afleitch]

Farage wants to abolish racial discrimination laws. Probably the most dangerous thing said by a politician in forty years.

[Phony Moderate]

Since 1968, to be precise.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's doing the usual backtracking.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And we have ourselves another MORI. Their recent efforts have looked different (though not in the same way), but this one seems to be in the normal range.

Headline figure: Labour 34, Con 33, UKIP 13, LDem 8, Greens 6, Others 6

Of course because MORI is MORI that's a figure for certain-to-votes only. They do not do turnout weighting stuff. The figure for everyone-who-says-anything is: Labour 36, Con 32, UKIP 12, LDem 8, Greens 7, Others 6.

[YL]

The Lib Dem candidate selected to defend Brent Central following Sarah Teather's retirement (probably a lost cause anyway) has been caught up in some fuss about party funding, and is standing down as Lib Dem candidate, but is apparently going to stand as an independent:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/12/lib-dem-ibrahim-taguri-steps-down-as-candidate-amid-donation-claims

(I'm not sure whether he thinks the idea is that he'd still de facto be the Lib Dem candidate, with the Lib Dems not opposing him, or something.)

[You kip if you want to...]

The Lib Dem candidate selected to defend Brent Central following Sarah Teather's retirement (probably a lost cause anyway) has been caught up in some fuss about party funding, and is standing down as Lib Dem candidate, but is apparently going to stand as an independent:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/12/lib-dem-ibrahim-taguri-steps-down-as-candidate-amid-donation-claims

(I'm not sure whether he thinks the idea is that he'd still de facto be the Lib Dem candidate, with the Lib Dems not opposing him, or something.)

Surely a contender to have the biggest swing outside Scotland there

[afleitch]

YouGov have polled Scotland gain. Changes since their February 2nd poll

SNP 46 (-2)
LAB 27
CON 18 (+3)
LIB 4
UKIP 2 (-2)
GRN 3

Only really interesting news is the further drop in Jim Murphy's approval rating. 26% think he's doing well down from 33%

[Clyde1998]

YouGov have polled Scotland gain. Changes since their February 2nd poll

SNP 46 (-2)
LAB 27
CON 18 (+3)
LIB 4
UKIP 2 (-2)
GRN 3

Only really interesting news is the further drop in Jim Murphy's approval rating. 26% think he's doing well down from 33%

It would be interesting to see what it is among Labour voters.

Meanwhile, STV have announced a TV debate between the four main Scottish parties.

Murphy vs Sturgeon would be interesting...

[Phony Moderate]

Labour ahead by 3 (32-29) and UKIP on 18% with Populus.

Also, the MORI leader ratings show a noticeable (if modest) increase for Miliband over the past several months.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour ahead by 3 (32-29) and UKIP on 18% with Populus.

Also, the MORI leader ratings show a noticeable (if modest) increase for Miliband over the past several months.

Dead cat bounce after the failed coup.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Populus has shown UKIP moving around a slightly higher range than other firms since they changed their methodology. MORI, on the other hand, shows them moving around in a lower range. The pattern with these two firms is consistent enough that it has to be structural.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov have polled Scotland gain. Changes since their February 2nd poll

SNP 46 (-2)
LAB 27
CON 18 (+3)
LIB 4
UKIP 2 (-2)
GRN 3

Only really interesting news is the further drop in Jim Murphy's approval rating. 26% think he's doing well down from 33%

More on this - YouGov have changed their methodology since their last poll in Scotland.

They're now including weighting based on how people voted in the referendum.

This means that the current hypothetical referendum voting intention is: Yes 49%; No 51%. While this is a lower Yes% than the last poll - that poll would've shown the same thing if weighted the same way.

YouGov have also included a column showing how 'Labour voters in 2010 who voted Yes in 2014' are planning to vote in 2015:
SNP - 81%
Lab - 18%
Grn - 1%

Additionally...

Born in Scotland voting intentions - 2015:
SNP - 51%
Lab - 25%
Con - 16%
Lib - 3%
Oth - 5%

Born in Rest of UK voting intentions - 2015:
Lab - 36%
SNP - 30%
Con - 22%
Lib - 5%
Oth - 7%

Approval Ratings
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP): +42
Jim Murphy (S-Lab): -10
David Cameron (Con): -36
Ed Miliband (Lab): -53
Nick Clegg (Lib): -70

[DC Al Fine]

Are there not enough immigrants in Scotland to make "Born Outside the UK" a viable polling option?

[afleitch]

Are there not enough immigrants in Scotland to make "Born Outside the UK" a viable polling option?

It's counted for in that poll actually, but the sample size is too small to be worth anything (weighted at 53 people) but here's the figures for that for fun;

SNP 36
CON 24
LAB 22
LIB 11

[afleitch]

Anyway it does seem, for however long it lasts, that Scottish politics new political cleavage is along Nationalist-Unionist lines, perhaps irrespective of what the UK wide issues are.

I'm voting SNP for the first time in a Westminster election, so my own politics have now aligned with how I vote at Holyrood. Given that the vote shares for both elections in the polls are in sync (and mirror what actually happened in 2011) it might be the case that other people are thinking along the same lines.

[Insula Dei]

UKPR weekly average now stands at LAB 32 (-2), CON 33 (-), LIB 7 (-), UKIP 15 (-), GRN 6 (-).

[YL]

Sunday newspaper polls.  These are all online, including the ComRes (who do both phone and online polling).

YouGov: Con 34 Lab 34 UKIP 14 Lib Dem 7 Green 5 SNP/Plaid 5
ComRes: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 16 Lib Dem 7 SNP 4 Green 4
Opinium: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 14 Lib Dem 7 Green 7 SNP 3