UK local by-elections 2013

[freefair]

Lichfield, Fazeley

Con 53.0 (-1.1)
Lab 47.0 (+1.1)

Pretty marginal for Lichvegas, then again it was always much more Labour than its reputation would show, it's only built up suc a great Tory majority at Westminster due to Fabricant being the hardworking, charming chap he is.

[Leftbehind]

[...]due to Fabricant being the hardworking, charming chap he is.

His recent HIGNFY appearance really highlighted that(!).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fazeley is in the Tamworth constituency. Remarkably nondescript piece of suburbia, actually.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

The slow pace of local by-elections continues, with just two contests this week, both in English cities.  Labour have a seat to defend in Newcastle upon Tyne, while the Tories need to fight off a Labour challenge to their safest ward in Nottingham.

WALKERGATE, Newcastle upon Tyne city council; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Tania Armstrong after just over a year in office, for family reasons.

Newcastle's most easterly ward, Walkergate straddles the various roads and the Metro line which connect the city to the suburb of Wallsend, running from the recently-closed Walkergate Hospital at the western end to the Tyne at the eastern end.  A relatively working-class ward according to the census figures, the deprivation indices paint a finer picture, with the area around Shields Road being much less deprived than the rest of the ward.

This ward is a Lib Dem-Labour fight as so much of the rest of Newcastle is.  The Lib Dems won all three seats in the ward when it was redrawn on its current boundaries in 2004, and increased their majorities in the next three elections.  However, Labour have taken over the ward's seats one by one since 2010; the Lib Dem vote held up relatively well in 2011 with the Labour majority being cut to just over 100 votes, but the yellow vote collapsed in 2012.  There is no Conservative vote to speak of here; the party were beaten into fourth place by the BNP at the 2008 election.

This form would suggest that Labour's Stephen Wood should have little trouble holding the seat.  Kevin Brown, who came third in Denton ward last year and comes from Gosforth, is the new Liberal Democrat candidate, while Marian McWilliams tries again for the Conservatives after standing here in 2012 and 2011.  Six other candidates have been nominated on what will be a crowded ballot paper: in alphabetical order they are Martin Collins for the Greens, Bobbie Cranney for the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, independent Davy Hicks, Olga Shorton for the localist Newcastle upon Tyne Community First Party (standing under the description "It's Time to Put Newcastle First"), independent Reg Sibley and UKIP's Lorraine Smith.

Parliamentary constituency: Newcastle upon Tyne East
ONS Travel to Work Area: Newcastle and Durham

Kevin Brown (LD) (@kevinjbrown7)
Martin Collins (Grn)
Bobbie Cranney (TUSC)
Davy Hicks (Ind)
Marian McWilliams (C)
Olga Shorton (NuTCFP)
Reg Sibley (Ind)
Lorraine Smith (UKIP)
Stephen Wood (Lab)

May 2012 result Lab 1912 LD 646 C 149 Comm 102
May 2011 result Lab 1682 LD 1580 C 119
May 2010 result Lab 2009 LD 1706 C 346 BNP 303
May 2008 result LD 1596 Lab 908 BNP 278 C 195
May 2007 result LD 1752 Lab 1005 C 153
May 2006 result LD 1770 Lab 1116 C 155
June 2004 result LD 1973/1885/1630 Lab 1298/1204/1160 C 203/192/171


WOLLATON WEST, Nottingham city council; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Steve Parton at the age of 64.  In his first term as a Nottingham councillor, Parton suffered a stroke while campaigning in the recent Wollaton East and Lenton Abbey by-election.

The ward of Wollaton West covers the whole of Wollaton Park together with housing to the north and west, including the old village of Wollaton which was swallowed up by Nottingham many years ago.  This is one of the most desirable places to live in Nottingham, with competition for places at the local schools being fierce.  One rather unexpected local resident is Batman: Wollaton Hall, former home of the Willoughby family in the middle of Wollaton Park, was used as the exterior of Wayne Manor in the most recent Batman film, The Dark Knight Rises.  (Inside the hall is the Nottingham Natural History Museum.)

While the local residents may not be as rich as Bruce Wayne, given the ward's demographics it's no surprise to find that this is a safe Conservative ward.  In fact, it's Nottingham's only safe Conservative ward, and somewhat of a bastion; even a doubling of the Labour vote in the 2011 election couldn't seriously threaten the blue team.

Batman and the other local residents have six candidates to choose from.  The Tories have gone for youth in defending this ward, having selected 22-year-old James Spencer who works for a media relations company in the Creative Quarter of the city centre.  He fought Wollaton East and Lenton Abbey in the 2011 election.  His main opposition will come from Labour's Steve Battlemuch, a parent governor at the local Fernwood School who is described as heavily involved in the local community.  The Liberal Democrats have a very experienced campaigner in the shape of businesswoman and former lecturer Barbara Pearce, who has stood for Parliament three times, including as the SLD candidate in the 1989 Richmond by-election which sent William Hague to Parliament for the first time, following up on that by fighting Leeds North West in the two 1990s elections.  Nottingham Business School lecturer Chris Clarke stands for UKIP, while the Green Party candidate, psychotherapist Katharina Boettge, comes here straight from fighting the Bilborough ward by-election in April; she is top of the Greens' East Midlands list for next year's Euro-elections.  In this rogues' gallery it's a matter for debate which candidate represents which Batman character, but there is one definite joker: the final candidate is regular frivolous by-election candidate David "Militant Elvis" Bishop, who will be hoping to attract more votes than the 115 he received here in the 2007 election by highlighting his opposition to High Speed 2 on the ballot paper.

Parliamentary constituency: Nottingham South
ONS Travel to Work Area: Nottingham

Steve Battlemuch (Lab) (@battlemuch4ww)
David Bishop (Elvis)
Katharina Boettge (Grn)
Chris Clarke (UKIP)
Barbara Pearce (LD)
James Spencer (C)

May 2011 result C 2870/2646/2593 Lab 2018/1938/1753 LD 770/601/506
Aug 2008 by-election C 2769 Lab 1042 LD 424 UKIP 220
May 2007 result C 2670/2408/2305 Lab 1169/1097/1013 LD 805/744/667 Grn 498 UKIP 483 Church of the Militant Elvis 115
May 2003 result C 2630/2563/2433 Lab 1197/1118/1087 LD 688/678/676

[ObserverIE]

Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Walkergate

Lab 44.0 (-24.1)
UKIP 27.2 (+27.2)
Lib Dem 18.8 (-4.2)
Ind Hicks 2.6
Newcastle First 2.5 (+2.5)
Con 2.2 (-3.1)
Green 1.2 (+1.2)
TUSC 1.0 (+1.0)
Ind Sibley 0.5

Nottingham, Wollaton West

Lab 46.8 (+10.4)
Con 33.8 (-17.9)
UKIP 12.0 (+12.0)
Lib Dem 4.6 (-7.4)
Green 2.2 (+2.2)
Elvis 0.6 (+0.6)

[MaxQue]

Bad Tories fortunes are continuing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Nottingham Labour Party is well organised these days, but that - the margin rather than the result as such - is still a shock. Wonder whether the Tories made a serious error regarding candidate selection?

[YL]

Interesting that Labour would still have gained the Nottingham seat even if the UKIP vote were added to the Tory one.  How do the demographics of that ward compare to say Harborne in Brum or Ecclesall in Sheffield?

Strong performance by UKIP in Newcastle though

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Posher than Harborne, not as posh as Ecclesall.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

On the menu this week: Southampton, West Yorkshire and West Norfolk.

http://blog.englishelections.org.uk/2013/06/by-elections-preview-13-june-2013.html

[ObserverIE]

Southampton, Woolston

Lab 32.3 (-22.8)
UKIP 27.7 (+27.7)
Con 26.3 (-5.6)
TUSC 5.1 (+0.4)
Lib Dem 4.5 (-3.8)
Green 4.0 (+4.0)

King's Lynn and West Norfolk, Watlington

UKIP 45.5 (+45.5)
Con 29.3 (+29.3)
Lab 25.2 (+7.7)

Kirklees, Liversedge and Gomersal

Lab 43.4 (+5.1)
Con 39.4 (-9.7)
Lib Dem 17.1 (+13.3)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Circumstances of the Woolston by-election were pretty awful for Labour so a lousy result isn't exactly a surprise...

[Leftbehind]

lol nearly remarked that this week's were looking uncompetitive...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Excellent result in Spenborough though. And a pretty respectable showing in Watlington, even if the headlines there are elsewhere.

[minionofmidas]

Excellent result in Spenborough though.

Including for the LDs!

[Leftbehind]

Excellent result in Spenborough though.

Including for the LDs!

Indeed, helped by the Green absence who've been standing each year since the ward's creation and got their best result last year (9%) only to not stand here.

[minionofmidas]

Excellent result in Spenborough though.

Including for the LDs!

Indeed, helped by the Green absence who've been standing each year since the ward's creation and got their best result last year (9%) only to not stand here.

Not to mention the UKIP absence... place sounds like strong kipper territory really.

[ObserverIE]

A Labour councillor in Whitby is an unusual thing.

You can say that again...

[YL]

This week's Holy Word (English ones only)

[ObserverIE]

Salford, Weaste and Seedley

Lab 44.4 (-10.3)
UKIP 22.7 (+22.7)
Con 14.7 (+2.0)
Green 4.5 (+4.5)
BNP 4.2 (-4.5)
Ind Simpson 3.6
Lib Dem 3.3 (-15.4)
TUSC 1.7 (+1.7)
Ind Valentine 0.8

Fife, Glenrothes North, Leslie and Markinch

Lab 45.8 (+4.9)
SNP 41.3 (-6.2)
Con 6.6 (+0.8)
UKIP 4.3 (+4.3)
Lib Dem 2.0 (+0.5)

Lab	1896	1927	1966	2095
SNP	1711	1724	1761	1814
Con	272	287	335
UKIP	176	184
Lib Dem	83

Milton Keynes, Bletchley and Fenny Stratford

Lab 39.9 (+3.1)
UKIP 25.2 (+14.3)
Con 22.9 (-12.6)
Green 8.2 (-4.0)
Lib Dem 3.8 (-0.9)

Allerdale, Boltons

Ind Fitzgerald 35.7
Con 32.0 (-1.8)
Ind Mumberson 21.0 (-45.2)
Green 11.2 (+11.2)

Edinburgh, Liberton and Gilmerton

Lab 39.5 (-1.4)
SNP 30.7 (-0.9)
Con 11.2 (-1.1)
Lib Dem 8.3 (+0.7)
Green 5.6 (+0.4)
UKIP 3.2 (+3.2)
Ind 0.9
Pirate 0.6 (+0.6)

Lab	2893	2896	2906	2941	3070	3255	3448
SNP	2249	2251	2256	2287	2403	2523	2633
Con	823	824	836	903	934	1098
Lib Dem	605	611	616	625	708
Green	412	430	440	471
UKIP	235	239	251
Ind	64	70
Pirate	47

[Leftbehind]

Lib Dem 3.3 (-15.4)

LOL.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Waste and Seedy was a pretty solid LibDem ward until recently.

[Leftbehind]

Indeed, it's hilarious that they've collapsed from even their recent depths.

[YL]

Milton Keynes, Bletchley & Fenny Stratford

Lab 1356
UKIP 855
Con 779
Green 277
Lib Dem 128

Edinburgh, Liberton/Gilmerton

First preferences:
Lab 2893
SNP 2248
Con 823
Lib Dem 605
Green 412
UKIP 235
Ind (Scott) 64
Pirate 47

Unsurprisingly, Labour won after transfers.

[ObserverIE]

South Tyneside, Primrose

Lab 50.3 (-25.0)
UKIP 34.6 (+34.6)
BNP 9.7 (-3.6)
Con 5.3 (-6.1)

South Tyneside, Cleadon and East Boldon

Lab 38.8 (-7.2)
Con 35.2 (-18.8)
UKIP 26.1 (+26.1)

Rutland, Ketton

Con 44.4
Ind McGilvray 34.9
UKIP 17.5
Ind Brookes 3.2

Dartford, Newtown

Lab 45.4 (+6.2)
Con 31.9 (-16.6)
UKIP 22.7 (+22.7)

Basildon, Billericay East

Con 50.8 (-6.7)
UKIP 29.8 (+14.1)
Lab 10.9 (-3.8)
Lib Dem 8.2 (-3.9)
NF 0.2 (+0.2)

Plymouth, Southway

Lab 43.1 (-8.2)
UKIP 26.4 (+4.6)
Con 16.8 (-10.1)
Ind 10.0
Lib Dem 2.8 (+2.8)
TUSC 0.8 (+0.8)

Worcestershire, Stourport-on-Severn

ICHC 30.7 (+4.1)
UKIP 26.0 (-0.9)
Con 21.4 (+0.7)
Lab 17.7 (-3.9)
Green 2.2 (-1.9)
BNP 1.1 (+1.1)
Lib Dem 0.9 (+0.9)

Newark and Sherwood, Farnsfield and Bilsthorpe

Con 63.3 (+4.5)
Lab 36.7 (-4.5)

Highlights:

UKIP vote in Cleadon/East Boldon: 666
NF vote in Billericay East: 3

Lab gain three from Con (Cleadon/East Boldon, Southway, Newtown)
Health Concern gain from UKIP in the first county council by-election since May.