Who will win the Canadian Federal Election

[DC Al Fine]

There's no option for 'the Conservatives might well get a plurality of seats, but they likely won't reach a majority, and if they don't have a majority they will almost certainly not be allowed to continue to govern'. I guess 'NDP minority' comes closest.

What makes you assume the Liberals would agree to back the NDP in a coalition? Past attempt of non-Torie forces to ally haven't been very successful.

Previous attempts would have included the Bloc, which is pretty much asking for a large Tory win next time.

[DC Al Fine]

Oh and to answer the OP:

Con > Lib
Con > NDP
Con < (Lib + NDP)

[DC Al Fine]

Oh and to answer the OP:

Con > Lib
Con > NDP
Con < (Lib + NDP)

So what happens? Another election or Harper has to make major compromises?

Progressive coalition. Harper resigns and we see what voters think of it in 2019.

[DC Al Fine]

Wikipedia reports that there are 14 vacancies in the Senate and 8 in the House of Commons.

Why is this? Plague? Scandals? The Olds kicking the bucket?

Senate: There's an expense scandal going on, so Harper isn't appointing new Senators to avoid controversy.

House of Commons: A bunch of retiring MP's resigned their seats rather than finishing out their term, knowing that the by-elections would be superseded by the real election. Oh and Dean Del Maestro was convicted of a crime and resigned.