People are abandoning Democrats, especially blue collar working class voters. The Problem is that this is New England and CT-02's blue collar workers might be resistant to voting GOP like has been seen in RI and Bristol, MA. This is the type of year in which such business as usuall can change but it doesn't mean it will and definately doesn't mean it is uniform acrossed these states.
Actually, Bristol County, MA had the second-largest swing of any MA county from McCain to Brown, and the largest swing from the Republican in most recent major competitive statewide races (Weld v. Kerry and Romney v. O'Brien). Granted, Scott Brown was from a neighboring county - but I don't think that explained all of it.
I don't think CT-02's blue collar workers are resistant to voting GOP. They did vote for Simmons.
One major difference between CT-02 and CT-04 and CT-05 is the lack of a Democratic stronghold city with a large minority population whose residents likely won't turn out in anywhere close to the same percentages this year as in '08. CT-04 has Bridgeport. CT-05 has New Britain and Danbury. Bridgeport turnout will likely determine who wins CT-04.
Actually, Bridgeport wont have an effect on it. Its all coming down to my city of Norwalk. Voters arent going to come out like they did in 2008, and especially in Bridgeport. Stamford will probably still lean Dem, but if you can win Norwalk, you'll win the election.
