My gporter-ish thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Albeit with not as easy to answer questions:

-What was up with Long County in Georgia in 1960?

-How did Eisenhower get over 90% and 80% in Plaquemines Parish, LA in 1952 and 56 respectively?

-Why did Missouri vote for Stevenson in 1956?

-Home state question that has confused me: Why did Stevens County vote for Nixon in 1968 and McGovern in 1972? Only county flipping to McGovern I've discovered

-What is up with this precinct "Niihau Elementary /High School" in Kauai County, HI in 2004 where Bush got every vote, except one that was cast for Cobb?

-Despite the massive swing to Bush in Florida in 2004 from 2000, how did Kerry manage to hang onto Monroe County (the Florida Keys), which barely voted for Gore? If you had asked me prior to the election the one county most likely to flip to Bush, I would've said that.

-Why did Oklahoma vote for Ford?

-Despite all the gains he made in similar counties, why didn't Bush make any big gains in suburban Philly?

-Why did Dukakis get clobbered so badly in Florida? The only southern state he did worse in was SC.

-What was the Gold Coast like in 1964, when it voted for Goldwater?

-Why did Maryland vote for Bush in 1988? It was the only holdout for Carter in 1980 to vote for Bush, except for Georgia, for which the reason is obvious.

[Alcon]

Answering only ones I'm familiar with:

-What is up with this precinct "Niihau Elementary /High School" in Kauai County, HI in 2004 where Bush got every vote, except one that was cast for Cobb?

Everett figured this out, but for some reason her post is gone.  In any case, it's a privately-owned, highly primitive island with an easily-influenced native population.  Consider that 56% of registered voters didn't vote.  In a presidential election.  Enough said - political apathetics easily convinced to vote for an incumbent.  An extreme version of the Pacific Islander incumbent bias rule.

In 2000, it cast no votes.  Evidently someone registered people for the purpose of voting Bush.  The Cobb voter...who knows.

-Despite the massive swing to Bush in Florida in 2004 from 2000, how did Kerry manage to hang onto Monroe County (the Florida Keys), which barely voted for Gore? If you had asked me prior to the election the one county most likely to flip to Bush, I would've said that.

My guess (and I don't know the county) is that there is a huge divide between the touristy (read: gay) population and the "natural population."  It may be that GOTV efforts also helped bring those, and service industry workers, out of the woodwork, as it did in ski counties.

-Despite all the gains he made in similar counties, why didn't Bush make any big gains in suburban Philly?

Similar counties such as what?  Philadelphia was hardly the only area where Bush didn't improve in the suburbs, even if it was more exclusive in the northeast.  Beyond that, dunno.

[Alcon]

Weird point about Niihau: In 2000, it was listed as "Niihau Elem/Inter School".  Clearly, they had a polling place...where no one showed up?

Unless it was included in the absentee beat for privacy reasons, which is possible.  But I doubt it didn't cast any votes in 2000 if they bothered to establish a polling place.  (I'm surprised they did that for 40 voters - maybe it's the law.)

[Alcon]

More weird Niihau fun:

In 2004, Daniel Inouye won 20 votes, with the Republican taking 12 and Libertarian taking 2.  Ed Case, on the other hand, was murdered 31-6.

Primary turnout was Republican 27, Nonpartisan 1, Democrat 1.  At the primary, the precinct had 81 registrants - 30 more than in the General (?!).

This year, Daniel Akaka won 33-3 (with 92 registered voters and 36 ballots).  However, new Dem Rep Mazie K. Hirono lost 10-26.  Lingle won 29-5-1.  So, in other terms, it seems that this is a hyper-Republican place, except it votes Democratic for U.S. Senate for no reason apparent to me.

The 33-0 votes on local Kauai ballot positions make me suspect that most voters are lightly prodded to vote in specified ways, at the minimum.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Similar counties such as what?  Philadelphia was hardly the only area where Bush didn't improve in the suburbs, even if it was more exclusive in the northeast.  Beyond that, dunno.

South Jersey, Baltimore area, Delaware

[Alcon]

Similar counties such as what?  Philadelphia was hardly the only area where Bush didn't improve in the suburbs, even if it was more exclusive in the northeast.  Beyond that, dunno.

South Jersey, Baltimore area, Delaware

OK, good point, then.  Sorry.  I'm slow.

[Sensei]

Monroe County is an odd case indeed. Sometimes there's just statistical anomalies such as this.

[Nym90]

-Home state question that has confused me: Why did Stevens County vote for Nixon in 1968 and McGovern in 1972? Only county flipping to McGovern I've discovered

Does it have a university campus? Quite a few university towns did flip from Nixon to McGovern, probably due to opposition to the war and McGovern's greater social liberalism compared to Humphrey (Washtenaw County in Michigan, home to the U of Michigan, is another county that did this flip....in fact it went from Nixon in 1968 to McGovern in 1972 to Ford in 1976 to Carter in 1980, quite an interesting sequence. Ford was a U of M alumnus, so that helps further explain things).

With regards to Monroe County FL, I think Alcon is right, it is a heavily tourist based area, and tourist areas tended to swing to the Dems in 2004. It is also pretty socially liberal for the reasons Alcon suggested, so the emerging importance of issues like gay marriage played a role as well.

For Oklahoma in 1976, not too surprising really since Oklahoma is more of a Plains state than it is a Southern state (though it is really a mix of the two, hence why it was so close). It shouldn't be shocking it would vote the same way as Kansas, Nebraska, and the rest of the Plains.

Florida's Gold Coast in 1964 was still pretty rural and culturally Southern, hence why it voted like the Deep South. It has experienced explosive growth and would be hardly recognizable today to someone who has lived there for 40 years. The Hispanic population hadn't yet begun its rapid growth either.

Adding to what was said about Niihau, its vote for Democratic Senators is due again to the incumbent bias I'd think, plus the fact that they almost always win by massive margins statewide, thus even carry heavily Republican areas. And there's the simple fact that with such a small sample size of 40 or so voters, anomalies are going to happen.

Dukakis completely ignored Florida in 1988, which didn't help, plus voters decided more on the basis of economic issues at that time compared to today. Florida's economy was also going quite strong at the time even compared to the national average. In addition, demographic changes with an increased hispanic vote and an increased immigration of Northern suburbanites is another factor for Florida's shift toward the Dems in the 1990's contrary to the rest of the South.

Regarding Maryland, Dukakis didn't do particularly well for a Democrat among blacks (both in terms of percentage of the vote as well as in turnout, the latter possibly due to some residual bitterness over his defeat of Jackson in the primaries and the animosity between the two men that resulted). Maryland is the most heavily black state outside of the South. In addition, the rural areas are still pretty culturally Southern and thus Carter did quite a bit better than Dukakis in these areas.

Not too sure on the Philly burbs, presumably the Pennsylvania posters could give us a better explanation. Maybe they are more socially liberal than other suburban areas in that corridor? Just a guess.

[Rob]

How did Eisenhower get over 90% and 80% in Plaquemines Parish, LA in 1952 and 56 respectively?

Machine county, run by the Dixiecrat Leander Perez. Perez liked Ike because he supported local ownership of oil and natural gas assets.

Why did Missouri vote for Stevenson in 1956?

Discontent in the farming regions bolstered the Democratic vote.

-Why did Oklahoma vote for Ford?

His support in the oil-rich areas outweighed the Carter love in Little Dixie.

-Why did Dukakis get clobbered so badly in Florida? The only southern state he did worse in was SC.

Willie Horton terrified the retirees, I'm sure.

-Why did Maryland vote for Bush in 1988? It was the only holdout for Carter in 1980 to vote for Bush, except for Georgia, for which the reason is obvious.

Willie Horton committed his infamous crime in Maryland.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does it have a university campus? Quite a few university towns did flip from Nixon to McGovern, probably due to opposition to the war and McGovern's greater social liberalism compared to Humphrey (Washtenaw County in Michigan, home to the U of Michigan, is another county that did this flip....in fact it went from Nixon in 1968 to McGovern in 1972 to Ford in 1976 to Carter in 1980, quite an interesting sequence. Ford was a U of M alumnus, so that helps further explain things).

Actually yes. University of Minnesota, Morris, where my cousin goes. I'm surprised I didn't think of that before, but that explains it.