absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Dr. Arch]

36,000 Broward County voters have cast ballots as of 5:00 PM today (34,750 vote in person, 1200 VBM, and around 75 provisionals)

How many more hours of great news left?

[Dr. Arch]

!!!!!


@steveschale  1m1 minute ago Florida, USA

Looks like Broward will set a record today for in-person.

FL stop. My heart can't take it. (Keep going)

[Dr. Arch]

Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

Would you mind providing the source for this? The only one I have is the one below and it's not showing that yet and I'd like to check on my county - St. Johns.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

http://www.duvalelections.com/Election-Information/2016-General-Voter-Turnout

Looks like it's up to a 3,500 advantage now, less than an hour later.

You're right! It keeps growing.

[Dr. Arch]

!!!!!


@steveschale  1m1 minute ago Florida, USA

Looks like Broward will set a record today for in-person.

FL stop. My heart can't take it. (Keep going)

Aren't you tired of winning??

After Tuesday, maybe

[Dr. Arch]

Early vote differentials on the final day of EV in Florida:

Bay: GOP +1153
Bradford: GOP +61
Broward: DEM +19148
Charlotte: GOP +510
Duval: DEM +3095
Hillsborough: DEM +3562
Leon: DEM +3064
Osceola: DEM +2035
Pinellas: DEM +1196
Polk: DEM +734
Seminole: DEM +152
St. Lucie: DEM +825
Suwannee: DEM +1

No information publicly available for Miami-Dade or Palm Beach until tomorrow morning. Orange should come in later. The total Democratic advantage in Florida today without those three counties is 32,028 before we hear from M-Dade, PB and Orange

Woooow

[Dr. Arch]

@DeFede

#BREAKING Record setting day for early voting in Broward (44,216) and Miami-Dade (53,095) - unprecedented numbers for single day @CBSMiami

44K IN BROWARD

[Dr. Arch]

Wow.

Florida D margin muss be >100k votes now, right?

Yep, most likely once Miami-Dade comes in.

[Dr. Arch]

Osceola county Florida: 105,334 early votes so far.  2012 total of 108,927 vote.

What insane turnout.

[Dr. Arch]

Is there any possibility that turnout among registered latinos could reach 70% this year? I know it was only 48% last time, but their early vote numbers have more than doubled in many places. I guess 60% is perhaps more likely, but I don't think even 70% would be out of reach at this point.

Texas would probably flip with that kind of turnout.

[Dr. Arch]

I think the main question that will linger in my mind after this election is whether Trump has permanently mobilized Latinos, or whether they'll sink back down to their previous turnout levels in future presidential elections.

I think once those who didn't vote regularly before get a taste of what they can do, they will start mobilizing more frequently, so probably yes

[Dr. Arch]

Daniel A. Smith

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote in 2012:
B: 764.0k (15.9%)
H: 522.5k (10.9%)
W: 3.3m (67.9%)
All Other: 251.5k (7%)

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote to date:
B: 834.6k (13.1%)
H: 976.3k (15.3%)
W: 4.2m (65.8%)
All Other: 373k (5.8%)

That 2% decrease in the White share is super spoopy.

[Dr. Arch]

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Maybe, but I'm inclined to believe not so much - at least over the next generation. If this was a viable possibility for the GOP, wouldn't it happen with 2nd/3rd+ generation Hispanics? It's going to take a long time for the numbers to be there where they can begin to turn the tide on this part of the electorate. And that's if they can even do it in any significant way.

Personally I see no reason to give the GOP the benefit of the doubt. Not with the current direction their party is headed in.

If anything, this cycle has done the exact opposite of assimilation.

[Dr. Arch]

Not sure why D's are so excited about FL:

2012 EV

Obama +3

2012 ED

Romney +2.1%

Result

Obama +0.9%

2016 EV

Clinton +1%

2016 ED

Lets cut the Romney number to 0.6% and say Trump +1.5% election day. I would argue Trump will do even better election day in FL than Romney did but this is just to show why Trump is in great position to take FL.

Result:

Trump wins FL by 0.5%

When you start sounding like StatesPoll, you know you're gone.

[Dr. Arch]

this is making my teeth-grinding worse each minute:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/ZachGorchow/status/795691996614631424

what are those people doing with their ballots and how slow is the mail in MI?

They could've just decided to vote in-person. Calm down, lol.

[Dr. Arch]

Michigan is a tailor made state for Trump's message on trade, its going to end up being very very close. If AA's don't turn out like they did for Obama in the state or atleast close to what they did, MI will go Trump.

You guys keep making the same predictions over and over, and fall flat on your faces each time.

[Dr. Arch]

now the NC GOP adds insult to injury and brags about their suppression victory.


https://twitter.com/RaleighReporter/status/795669824135430145



record numbers in MN

http://www.twincities.com/2016/11/07/wowsa-a-record-busting-568196-ballots-already-accepted-in-minnesota/

Yup, Trump takes NC because R's suppressed early voting for AA. Was a must win state for Trump. Looking good there.

Disgusting and un-American. You should be ashamed of yourself. Don't worry. The educated vote will swing and AAs will turn out on ED. You will lose the state despite your nasty celebration.

[Dr. Arch]

now the NC GOP adds insult to injury and brags about their suppression victory.


https://twitter.com/RaleighReporter/status/795669824135430145



record numbers in MN

http://www.twincities.com/2016/11/07/wowsa-a-record-busting-568196-ballots-already-accepted-in-minnesota/

Yup, Trump takes NC because R's suppressed early voting for AA. Was a must win state for Trump. Looking good there.

Disgusting and un-American. You should be ashamed of yourself. Don't worry. The educated vote will swing and AAs will turn out on ED. You will lose the state despite your nasty celebration.

Call it what you want but anyone who wants can show up and vote tomorrow who is a citizen. Trump will carry NC tomorrow and win the election, prepare for depression to set in around 11 PM tomorrow night hehe

There's a special place in hell for people like you.

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Latino surge or not, look at this chart and tell me with a straight face hillary is going to win NC.

HRC is going to win NC. There you go.

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Latino surge or not, look at this chart and tell me with a straight face hillary is going to win NC.

HRC is going to win NC. There you go.

2012 -> 2016
Dem share 47 -> 41
Republican share unchanged
White share, 67 -> 71
Black share, 27 -> 22

Romney won the state in 2012 and Clinton needs to improve on 2012 to win here. But every thing suggests Trump is outperforming Romney.

I'm tired of trying to explain it to you just to have you come back 12 hours later repeating the same drivel. I won't type any new answers to you on this anymore.

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Latino surge or not, look at this chart and tell me with a straight face hillary is going to win NC.

Hillary has been doing much better among white college educated voters, particularly white women grads, and part of the reason North Carolina has even become competitive is because of the rise of college grads in NC and the decline of working class whites. States with larger amounts of white college grads makes them stronger for Hillary, like Colorado/Virginia. It also makes her weaker in places like Ohio and Iowa.

So yes, the demographic numbers at face value are worrying, but knowing how she performs among certain white voters makes it perfectly possible for her to win the state.

You're wasting your time on this. Trust me, I've tried.

[Dr. Arch]

Hillsborough is doing live update: http://www.livevoterturnout.com/Hills/ElectionDayPartyTurnout.html

Thanks for that link.

It looks like Democrats won the early vote by about 28,000 in that swing county.  Will be interesting to see if they can hold onto the lead through today.  So far Republicans cutting it by 2,000.

Ds turn out more later in the day.