Trump (probably) wants to win the election. Picking Sarah Palin as a VP won't help. I think he will pick someone like himself, high energy (or whatever you want to call it), maybe a businessman, probably not someone usually mentioned in VP speculation.
Of course Trump wants to win, but he's incredibly arrogant, even for a presidential candidate. It's served him well so far (something that the likes of Politico and 538 still don't understand), but picking Palin as his VP could push things too far.