Worst election analysis ever

[Alcon]

That was a problem when I posted it.  Obama (and the faltering economy) solved that problem.

No, actually, when you posted that, Obama was creaming among white Democrats by a margin of at least 4-to-1.  You ignored this number repeatedly, while claiming that Palin could take up to half of white Democratic women or something.  Everyone else was telling you that you'd be painfully wrong.  You insisted.  You were painfully wrong.

My point is that there can be a lot of cleavages that Palin (or some other candidate) can exploit.

giggle.

One of them is running an anti-urban campaign. 

That seems to have caused suburban backlash this time, and contributed to Obama's strengths among a suburban population sympathetic to him.  Lame strategy.  Worked in 2004, didn't in 2008.  What's your point?

[Alcon]

I didn't really say anything conclusive about Palin, that's a totally separate issue to your complete botching of the white Democratic vote.

[Alcon]

By the way, just for the heck of it, let's say Obama did lose the white Democratic vote, 51-49.

We'll mock it up as follows:

White Democrats (23%): 51-49 Republican
White Independents (23%): 63-37 Republican (generous in such a scenario)
White Republicans (29%): 94-6 Republican (ditto)
All Others (26%): 70-30 Democratic (ditto)

The result?  McCain would win, 61%-39%.  He'd win white voters (assuming he wouldn't win white indys over 2-to-1 like he obviously would in such a scenario) 71%-29%.

Were there any indications, in any polls ever, that McCain might win with over 60%?  Or that he'd carry white voters by over 40 points?

No!

[Alcon]

Obviously rural Vermont loves Palin.

Spotlight fallacy, falsely assuming a correlation...

I don't buy J. J.'s thesis either, but you're basically doing what he did